On Oct 10, 2025, Israel began pulling its troops from parts of Gaza as a peace agreement it signed with Hamas went into effect.
asserted
it → begin → effect
A year later, it has expanded its occupation to about 70 per cent of the Palestinian territory — one of its many violations of that ceasefire.
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it → expand → ceasefire
The 20-point peace plan envisaged by United States President Donald Trump, titled ‘Comprehensive Plan to End Gaza Conflict’, has not just remained stalled; it has been torn apart by Washington’s own ally Israel.
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it → envisage → ally
At the time, Trump had touted the plan as a breakthrough that would bring “eternal peace” to the Middle East.
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that → tout → East
He later launched his own military campaign alongside Israel in the war against Iran.
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He → launch → Iran
The initial phase resulted in a ceasefire on Oct 10, 2025 and secured the release of the last remaining captives seized in Hamas’s Oct 7, 2023 attack on Israel, along with freedom for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel.
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phase → result → Israel
While the October 10 agreement pertained only to the first phase of the peace plan, the roadmap laid out by Trump had offered the world a glimmer of hope for some semblance of calm in the shattered Palestinian territory.
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roadmap → pertain → territory
Yet a year on, many of the plan’s goals have yet to materialise, including securing an Israeli withdrawal and rebuilding Gaza.
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many → have → Gaza
Dawn takes a look at which guarantees have been achieved and what remain unfulfilled promises to the Palestinians, and to peace.
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what → take → peace
The first phase of Trump’s 20-point plan included a suspension of all military operations, Israeli withdrawal from part of the enclave, captive and prisoner releases and a surge in aid.
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phase → include → aid
While the first phase of the plan remains incomplete due to the large presence of Israeli troops, the US had announced moving on to the second phase in January, which also remains stalled.
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which → remain → January
How well has the ceasefire held?
Barely.
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ceasefire → hold → ?
The plan aimed to bring a halt to Israeli military operations after a two-year bombing campaign — widely determined to be a genocide — killed over 74,000 Palestinians.
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campaign → aim → Palestinians
However, near-daily attacks have killed more than 1,460 Palestinians, including 300 children, since the ceasefire took effect on Oct 10.
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ceasefire → kill → Oct
Israel attacked the enclave on 337 of the past 365 days, based on a tally compiled by Al Jazeera and reports by AFP and Palestinian Wafa news agency.
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Israel → attack → AFP
This leaves only 28 days without reported attacks over the year-long period up to October 9.
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This → leave → October
Israel claims its strikes have targeted Hamas, accusing the group of trying to carry out attacks and rearm.
uncertain
strikes → claim → attacks
Hamas denies this, and forums such as the United Nations
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Hamas → deny → Nations
On the other side, five Israeli soldiers have been killed by Palestinian fighters or in combat since the ceasefire, according to the Israeli military.
uncertain
soldiers → kill → military
Has Israel withdrawn from Gaza?
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Israel → withdraw → Gaza
The first phase of Trump’s plan foresaw Israel withdrawing to a so-called “yellow line”, allowing Israeli forces to retain control of 53 per cent of Gaza.
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forces → foresee → Gaza
However, as of July, it had expanded its occupation to nearly 70pc of the besieged enclave, according to maps analysed by NPR.
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it → expand → NPR
This isn’t just covert movement; Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unabashedly directed his military in May to expand its control to 70pc of the strip.
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Minister → direct → strip
Part of this was already done in March — when the world’s attention was caught by the US-Israel war against Iran — and Israel marked a new “orange line”, taking effective control of 11pc of Gaza’s territory beyond the yellow line.
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Israel → do → line
The creeping military presence has uprooted more Palestinians, squeezing the population of 2 million into a shrinking coastal strip where they shelter in tents and damaged buildings.
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they → creep → tents
A September report by The New York Times based on satellite images said Israel constructed six new military outposts in its self-designated orange zone after the ceasefire, many on the rubble of homes and villages.
Moreover, Israel-backed Palestinian militias and opposed to Hamas use the Israeli-held zone to launch attacks on the area where most of the Palestinian population lives.
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most → base → population
From the start of the ceasefire through April, at least 196 Palestinians, including 18 women and 43 children, were killed near the Yellow Line, according to figures verified by the United Nations’ rights office.
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Palestinians → include → office
Since October 2025, accessible and undamaged cropland has fallen from 601 hectares to 448 hectares, according to a June assessment by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).
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cropland → fall → Organisation
It noted that the loss of 25.5pc reflected reduced access to farmland since the ceasefire, “associated primarily” with the expansion of the yellow line.
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loss → note → line
As recently as last month, members of Israel’s far-right government called for the annexation of parts of the Gaza Strip and for forces to “go to war” in the occupied West Bank.
“I would like us to annex at least as far as the yellow line in Gaza and as far as the Litani River in Lebanon, because if a war ends along the same lines where it began, what will deter the enemy from going to war again?”
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what → call → war
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said in a podcast for the Israeli news site Ynet.
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Smotrich → say → site
Has the flow of aid resumed?
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flow → resume → aid
After Israeli policies led to a famine in Gaza City during the war and starved hundreds to death across the strip, the first phase of Trump’s peace plan was supposed to enable the entry of “full aid” into the territory.
“Entry of distribution and aid in the Gaza Strip will proceed without interference from the two parties through the United Nations and its agencies, and the Red Crescent, in addition to other international institutions not associated in any manner with either party,” read the plan.
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plan → lead → party
However, while the flow has resumed, many foreign aid groups still struggle to work in the territory and say their staff or supplies continue to be rejected.
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staff → resume → territory
Remember that “orange line” Israel drew?
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Israel → remember → line
International organisations, including humanitarian groups, are required to coordinate their movements with the Israeli military to deliver aid in the area between the orange line and the yellow line.
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organisations → include → line
According to a report by global hunger watchdog IPC, expansion of humanitarian assistance improved household food consumption since a December 2025 IPC analysis, shifting from IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) to Phase 3 (Crisis) levels.
However, all five governorates — Rafah, Khan Younis, Deir al-Balah, Gaza and north Gaza — are still classified in IPC Phase 3, with 212,000 people remaining in Phase 4.
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people → accord → Phase
More than 1.4m people (67pc of the population) were expected to face high levels of acute food insecurity (Phase 3 or above) through December 2026, up from 1.2m in the mid-April–June period, IPC said.
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IPC → expect → period
It noted that despite the flow of aid, food security coverage has largely declined, falling from a peak of 2.13m people reached in November 2025 to 1.49m people in May 2026.
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coverage → note → May
Further reductions were also expected due to funding constraints and uncertainty surrounding the renewal of operational authorisations for 37 international non-governmental organisations (INGOs).
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reductions → expect → organisations
…and 48 more, not listed.
The Aporia
