Bill Kristol: Trump Is Turning a Bad Midterm Into a Republican Catastrophe

The Bulwark · collected 2026-09-08 · by Tim Miller commentary
Read the original at The Bulwark ↗

Summary

Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller on the Bulwark Daily podcast, discussing how President Trump is potentially turning an already bad midterm election into a catastrophe for Republicans. The discussion centers around wave elections in 2006 and 1994, where the party in power suffered major losses, and how those similarities might apply to this year's midterms. The conversation touches on various topics, including Kristol's past experiences as a young Republican operative. The podcast is part of the Bulwark LIVE: Good Fight Tour, which features live shows with various guests across the country.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-08, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
18
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
0%
0 of 18 hedged
Leaning
Leans strongly left
expected in commentary, which argues a position
Publisher trust
not scored
Commentary is not rated for newsroom trust
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
25
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-08 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

Bill Kristol joined Tim Miller on a podcast to discuss how former President Donald Trump is turning a potentially bad midterm election into a disaster for Republicans. They compared the current situation to two major wave elections in 1994 and 2006, where the party in power suffered significant losses. In 1994, it was largely about the end of an era, while 2006 was due to an unpopular war, scandal, and a disappointed base. The conversation also touched on personal anecdotes from Tim's time as a young Republican operative and Bill Clinton blaming his health care reform plan on Bill Kristol's efforts.

Written for “Trump's Midterm Catastrophe” on 2026-09-08, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.85 Confidence high
Leaning score -0.85 for article 6978 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-09-08

Story

📰 Trump's Midterm Catastrophe
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans strongly left and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 7% hedged 7 of 97 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A describes the Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, while Article B discusses the general run-up to midterms and does not mention a specific convention or event”
New York Post
⚖️ Leans strongly right further right than this 🔴 6% hedged 2 of 36 📰 publisher trust 58
“Article A discusses the upcoming midterm elections and the contrast between Trump's economic policies and Democratic socialism, while Article B is about Bill Kristol's opinion on how Trump is turning a bad midterm into a Republican catastrophe.”

Publisher

The Bulwark · 74 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Tim Miller
12 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 show notes: COME HANG WITH THE GANG—Sarah, Tim, JVL, Sam and friends—during our Bulwark LIVE: Good Fight Tour this October 16-20: 🎤Friday, October 16 at The Senate in Columbia, S.C.—Will Sommer joins the gang on stage.
🔮 He also opened up to Ben about why he’s so determined to build it, agreeing that nobody else would build monuments to him after he’s gone.
🔮 This is the public service Tim, Sam and (usually) Will provide.
🔮 Plus: Tim reads from the mailbag, Trump is repulsed by Ken Paxton, the Antichrist might be walking amongst us, and what would happen if armed, leftwing activists created a sanctuary space in Ohio to protect Haitian immigrants?
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Jonathan V. Last: How Much Stupid Can We Possibly Take?
🔮 MAGA Pollster Thinks Texas, Ohio and Even KANSAS Could Turn Blue (w/ Rich Baris)
🔮 Likewise, moderates also need to recognize that the left will be swing voters in key races this election cycle.
2026-08-27 · assertive framing · Neera Tanden: How to Win
🔮 Plus, ICE is planning a facility in Louisiana that could hold women and children, developed by the company that operates the state’s notorious Angola prison.
Also by Tim Miller
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 12 articles by Tim Miller →

Topics

Columbia Republican S.C.—Will The Bulwark Daily The Senate

Subjects

Tim PERSON · 4× Bill PERSON · 3× Bill Kristol PERSON · 3× Catherine Rampell PERSON · 2× Columbia GPE · 2× Republican NORP · 2× The Bulwark Daily ORG · 2× Clinton PERSON · 1× Tim Miller PERSON · 1× Trump PERSON · 1×

Narrative

A subscription gets you: - Unlimited access to articles and newsletters including The Triad by JVL and Receipts by Catherine Rampell. - Ad-free editions of our shows (with transcripts) and member-only shows like The Secret Podcast. - Plus community chats and commenting features.
framing: assertive · carried by 25 article(s) · first seen 2026-08-24
🔮 show notes: COME HANG WITH THE GANG—Sarah, Tim, JVL, Sam and friends—during our Bulwark LIVE: Good Fight Tour this October 16-20: 🎤Friday, October 16 at The Senate in Columbia, S.C.—Will Sommer joins the gang on stage.
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I Worked for Trump. The Natalie Harp Saga Isn’t Surprising. · assertive framing
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MAGA’s 2028 Civil War Is Already Here · assertive framing
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The Dawn of FAFO Economics · assertive framing
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The 2028 Democratic Primary Is Quietly Raging · assertive framing
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Europe’s Gold Fled the Nazis. Now It’s Fleeing Trump. · assertive framing
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2026-09-04 · The Bulwark
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Jonathan V. Last: How Much Stupid Can We Possibly Take? · assertive framing
2026-09-05 · The Bulwark
The GOP is MIA in North Carolina (with Chris Cooper) · assertive framing
2026-09-06 · The Bulwark
Fox News FIRES Maria Bartiromo After She Secretly Helped Trump · assertive framing
2026-09-06 · The Bulwark
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Claims (18 extracted, 0 hedged)

Bill Kristol: Trump Is Turning a Bad Midterm Into a Republican Catastrophe asserted
Trump → turn → Catastrophe
With just under two months until Election Day, Tim and Bill revisit the run-up to the midterms in 2006 and 1994, two major wave election cycles where the bottom just fell out from under the party in power. asserted
bottom → revisit → power
With just under two months until Election Day, Tim and Bill revisit the run-up to the midterms in 2006 and 1994, two major wave election cycles where the bottom just fell out from under the party in power. asserted
bottom → revisit → power
What do those wave elections suggest about the prospects for a big blue year in 2026? asserted
elections → suggest → 2026
Plus: Do not miss either the war stories from Tim as a young Republican operative on the campaign trail or Clinton blaming Bill for helping to tank his health care reform plan. asserted
Clinton → miss → plan
Bill Kristol joins Tim Miller for a special holiday pod. asserted
Kristol → join → pod
show notes: COME HANG WITH THE GANG—Sarah, Tim, JVL, Sam and friends—during our Bulwark LIVE: Good Fight Tour this October 16-20: 🎤Friday, October 16 at The Senate in Columbia, S.C.—Will Sommer joins the gang on stage. asserted
Sommer → hang → stage
🎤Sunday, October 18 at the Carolina Theatre in Charlotte, N.C.—special guest Pete Buttigieg joins the gang with Catherine Rampell and Lauren Eagan. asserted
Buttigieg → join → Rampell
🎤Tuesday, October 20 at The Eastern in Atlanta, Ga.—Gen. Mark Hertling and the Morning Shots duo—Andrew Egger and Bill Kristol—join the gang for this final stop. asserted
Hertling → join → stop
At Bulwark LIVE we can promise you a night of fellowship and politics with lots of laughs—and maybe a few tears too. asserted
we → promise → laughs
We’ll keep you sane. asserted
We → keep → you
We want to hear from you. asserted
We → want → you
Tim Miller’s Bulwark Daily is available wherever you get podcasts and on YouTube. asserted
you → get → YouTube
New shows drop each weekday afternoon. asserted
shows → drop → ?
If you like the show, leave a comment and ⭐⭐⭐⭐ wherever you listen. asserted
you → like → comment
Join Bulwark+ to unlock the rest Become a paying member of The Bulwark to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. asserted
Join → join → post
A subscription gets you: - Unlimited access to articles and newsletters including The Triad by JVL and Receipts by Catherine Rampell. - Ad-free editions of our shows (with transcripts) and member-only shows like The Secret Podcast. - Plus community chats and commenting features. asserted
subscription → get → chats
Your support helps keep our work sustainable and available to those who cannot afford a membership. asserted
who → help → membership
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