The Aporia
In early October 2026, US President Donald Trump announced that Russia would supply 300,000 tons of diesel immediately and additional amounts totaling 1.5 million tons in the following months to alleviate soaring fuel prices ahead of the November congressional elections. The agreement came after Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, aiming to address record-high diesel costs that began rising by 70% since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran earlier that year.
To facilitate this deal, the US Department of Treasury temporarily lifted sanctions on the sale and importation of Russian diesel until April 2027. This move contrasts sharply with previous sanctions imposed to hinder Russia's economic gains from oil and gas exports following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The supply agreement also includes an additional 3 million tons contingent upon the operational status of Russian refineries, which have been damaged by Ukrainian attacks. Diesel prices are critical as they drive inflation and impact sectors like agriculture, heating, and transportation logistics. Despite Trump’s efforts to boost fuel supplies through allies’ emergency reserves and tax-exempt red-dyed diesel, prices remained near record highs amid ongoing conflicts and supply disruptions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe.
the accord would provide Moscow with additional funds to wage war and undermine any attempts to work towards a settlement