Counting under way in Holborn and St Pancras byelection – UK politics live

Read the original at The Guardian ↗
The Guardian · collected 2026-10-09 · by Adam Fulton

Quick Summary

The article reports on the ongoing count in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection in London, where early signs indicate a Labour victory over the Green Party. The Greens have conceded defeat, expressing disappointment but highlighting their impact on issues like affordable housing and climate change. The election comes after internal turmoil within the Green Party due to a controversial policy equating Zionism with racism, which has caused divisions among party members and led some MPs to reject the move.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-09, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Zack Polanski, leader of the Green Party in England and Wales, is challenging Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali for the Holborn and St Pancras seat left vacant by Keir Starmer. Polls have opened in this high-stakes by-election seen as a key indicator of Andy Burnham’s ability to energize voters and the Green Party’s potential to attract support from Labour's left base.

Polanski claims the contest is close, while Prime Minister Burnham has endorsed Abdi-Wali, saying she will make a "brilliant local MP." The seat is typically a strong Labour hold, but Polanski's campaign efforts have been robust. However, recent events at the Green Party conference, where members voted to equate Zionism with racism and called for Israel’s replacement by a single Palestinian state, have sparked controversy and potential splits within the party.

Failure to win Holborn and St Pancras convincingly could undermine Polanski's leadership and raise doubts about Labour’s ability to defend inner-city seats from the Green Party. The seat has a young and diverse population, which made it promising ground for the Greens during local elections in May 2026 when they gained control of several London councils. However, recent polling shows the Green Party trailing at 11%, 16 points behind Labour.

Written for “Holborn By-election” on 2026-10-09, grounded in this article and the 13 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans left for article 67383 (high confidence, 4 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-09

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
30
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
10%
3 of 30 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
68.4
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
14
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-09 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Holborn By-election
Politics · 14 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 10% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 14% hedged 4 of 29 📰 publisher trust 66
“Both articles describe the counting process and initial results of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on the same date.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 22 📰 publisher trust 66
“Both articles discuss the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on the same date, with Article B providing an update about the counting process after the votes have been cast in Article A.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 1 of 22 📰 publisher trust 66
“Both articles discuss the Holborn and St Pancras by-election occurring on the same day.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 10 📰 publisher trust 72
“Article A discusses the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election before it occurs, while Article B reports on the results of the election after it has taken place.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 7% hedged 1 of 15 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles describe different stages of the Holborn by-election: Article A refers to Polanski's campaigning before polling day, while Article B reports on the results and concession after polling day.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 23 📰 publisher trust 68
“While both articles discuss the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, Article A reports on voting opening, while Article B covers vote counting and results after the election has concluded.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 13% hedged 10 of 75 📰 publisher trust 66
“The articles describe different stages of the election process: one is about candidates and another about the results after counting votes.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ Leans right further right than this 🔴 21% hedged 5 of 24 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A discusses the upcoming by-election on October 7th and its significance, while Article B reports on the results of the election after it has occurred on October 9th.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 27 📰 publisher trust 66
“Article A describes last-minute campaigning efforts on election day, while Article B reports on the results and concession speech after the vote counting.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5 📰 publisher trust 72
“Article A describes the voting process on election day, while Article B reports on the counting and results after election day.”

Publisher

The Guardian · 1531 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Adam Fulton
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 A party spokesperson said: It is clear now we will come a close second in this by-election. Taking the fight to Labour in one of its safest seats shows just how far the Greens have come.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

Green Greens Israel Jewish Labour

Subjects

Greens ORG · 11× Labour ORG · 10× Polanski PERSON · 5× Green NORP · 4× Jewish NORP · 4× Denton PERSON · 3× Israel GPE · 3× Zack Polanski PERSON · 3× Zionism PERSON · 3× Holborn GPE · 2×

Narrative

Zack Polanski’s had a tricky week leading up to the byelection amid criticism he showed a lack of leadership over a policy equating Zionism with racism adopted at last weekend’s Green party conference But the Greens’ adoption of the policy has been highly contentious – drawing sharp rebukes from mainstream UK parties, British Jewish groups and Israel – while also prompting four of five Green MPs to publicly reject the move.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-09
🔮 A party spokesperson said: It is clear now we will come a close second in this by-election. Taking the fight to Labour in one of its safest seats shows just how far the Greens have come.

Claims (30 extracted, 3 hedged)

The Greens have conceded defeat in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, saying they have come a “close second” in the contest. asserted
they → concede → contest
A party spokesperson said: It is clear now we will come a close second in this by-election. Taking the fight to Labour in one of its safest seats shows just how far the Greens have come. asserted
Greens → say → seats
Voters want us to keep Labour’s feet to the fire on affordable housing, public ownership of water and the climate crisis. asserted
us → want → water
Greens will be there every single day, holding Labour to account and demanding the change people voted for. asserted
people → hold → change
The loss will be disappointing for Polanski, who was hoping to replicate the party’s seismic win in Gordon and Denton earlier this year. asserted
who → hop → Gordon
Thousands of party activists descended on the north London constituency to knock doors but it appears their efforts fell short. asserted
efforts → descend → doors
The results caps off a bruising week Polanski and his eco-populist party, which fell into turmoil after it voted on Sunday to adopt a policy declaring Zionism as a form of racism, sparking internal division that continued after polls closed. asserted
polls → cap → division
Caroline Lucas refused to say whether Polanski should stand down within an hour of polls shutting while speaking to BBC Newsnight. asserted
polls → refuse → Newsnight
From the count here in Camden council’s swanky headquarters, signs suggest a Labour-win is imminent. asserted
win → suggest → headquarters
After the polls closed, the Greens issued a fairly downbeat statement on the “positive campaign” the party ran in “what is one of Labour’s safest seats” – hardly a barnstorming comment suggesting confidence in their chances tonight. asserted
what → close → chances
A Green loss could spell further disquiet in the party after a motion terming Zionism as a form of racism passed at its conference. Green party leader Zack Polanski has been seen arriving at Camden Council chambers in north London as the byelection count continues. uncertain
count → spell → London
Zack Polanski’s had a tricky week leading up to the byelection amid criticism he showed a lack of leadership over a policy equating Zionism with racism adopted at last weekend’s Green party conference But the Greens’ adoption of the policy has been highly contentious – drawing sharp rebukes from mainstream UK parties, British Jewish groups and Israel – while also prompting four of five Green MPs to publicly reject the move. asserted
adoption → ’ → move
The motion said Zionism – the movement for a Jewish state – should be “treated as any other form of racism” and called for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state. asserted
Israel → say → state
The head of the Jewish Greens condemned it and said she might leave the party, although it was supported by some Jewish Greens. uncertain
it → condemn → Greens
Even members who supported large parts of the motion were unhappy about its narrow conception of Zionism which some fear could brand those in favour of the idea of a Jewish homeland – but not specifically the modern-day state of Israel – as racist. uncertain
some → support → Israel
The English and Welsh Greens are facing international ostracism after their adoption of the policy drew dismay from the group representing European Greens. asserted
adoption → face → Greens
Keir Starmer won it with a majority of 11,500 at the 2024 general election despite strong challenges from the Greens and a leftwing independent candidate, who is not standing again and has endorsed Zack Polanski. asserted
who → win → Polanski
In 2019 Starmer won by nearly 28,000 votes. asserted
Starmer → win → votes
Polanski has run a highly energetic campaign. asserted
Polanski → run → campaign
He has mobilised a large numbers of supporters to knock on doors, mimicking February’s Gorton and Denton byelection, where the Greens overcame an even bigger Labour majority to take the seat. asserted
Greens → mobilise → seat
However, the political landscape has changed. asserted
landscape → change → ?
Shortly after Gorton and Denton, YouGov polling put the Greens briefly above Labour, on a peak of 21%. asserted
polling → put → %
The most recent equivalent had Polanksi’s party on 11%, 16 points behind Labour. asserted
equivalent → have → Labour
Burnham, who succeeded Starmer as prime minister in July, is seen as having revitalised Labour, and used his speech at the party’s annual conference last month to set out a more ambitious and left-leaning collection of policies. asserted
who → succeed → policies
Polanski’s fortunes, in contrast, appear to have declined, especially since last weekend’s Green party conference where a vote by members to adopt a policy equating Zionism with racism and calling for Israel to be replaced by a single Palestinian state prompted condemnation and splits in the party. asserted
Israel → appear → party
Counting under way in Holborn and St Pancras byelection Hello and welcome to the UK politics live blog. asserted
Counting → welcome → blog
Counting is currently under way in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection in north London, where voters are choosing a replacement for former prime minister Sir Keir Starmer. asserted
voters → choose → Starmer
Starmer announced his decision to step down as an MP in September after being ousted from No 10 by Andy Burnham. asserted
Starmer → announce → Burnham
Camden council has said the result is expected to be called between 2:30-4am UK time. asserted
result → say → 2:30
We’ll bring you the latest developments as we get them. asserted
we → bring → them
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