The Aporia
The Bank of England's boss warned during the Istanbul Economic Forum that low economic growth and frequent supply shocks, like those stemming from potential conflicts such as with Iran, are eroding public finances. This leaves governments with less financial flexibility to support citizens through economic downturns. Mr Bailey noted that EY estimates the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom has narrowed from £23.6 billion in March to £11.3 billion currently, and it could vanish if tensions continue to impact energy supply, inflate prices, and slow growth further. Additionally, he highlighted rising borrowing costs; the 10-year gilt rate climbed to a high of around 5.53%, its highest since 2007. Bailey emphasized that credible fiscal policies directed at stability are crucial for maintaining market confidence in government finances.