Lenders expect credit card defaults to increase in months ahead, survey finds

Read the original at Evening Standard ↗
Evening Standard · collected 2026-10-08 · by Vicky Shaw

Quick Summary

A recent Credit Conditions Survey conducted by the Bank of England found that lenders expect credit card defaults to increase over the next three months due to financial strain on borrowers. The survey, which was carried out between August 17 and September 4, also noted slight decreases in mortgage default rates but no change for corporate loans. Additionally, the survey indicated a decrease in mortgage availability followed by an expected slight increase, along with growing demand for mortgages and remortgaging as lenders become more confident about future lending conditions despite ongoing economic challenges.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-08, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Lenders anticipate an increase in credit card defaults over the next three months, according to a recent survey conducted by The Bank of England. While mortgage availability decreased slightly from May to August and demand for mortgages also fell during this period, both are expected to rise moderately through November. Nathan Emerson, CEO at Propertymark, expressed optimism about potential growth in secured lending. However, Adam Butler from the debt help charity StepChange warned that defaults on unsecured credit will likely continue to rise due to increasing costs of living and higher interest rates. The Bank of England's Credit Conditions Survey indicates that default rates for mortgages have slightly decreased but are expected to remain stable, while loan default rates for companies have been steady with no change predicted in the near future. StepChange is already supporting 20% more clients than anticipated this year as people struggle to meet their financial obligations amidst rising prices and energy costs.

Written for “Credit Card Defaults Predicted To Rise” on 2026-10-08, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but all 2 of its quote(s) are attributed speech - words the article quotes from someone, not the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 65336: attributed speech only · logged 2026-10-08

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
11
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
18%
2 of 11 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Correction & hedging signals
66.3
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Economy/Business
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-08 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Credit Card Defaults Predicted To Rise
Economy/Business · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

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Publisher

Evening Standard · 4101 article(s) · 34 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 34 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Vicky Shaw
44 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Lenders also said default rates on mortgages slightly decreased in the three months to August and are expected to be unchanged in the three months ahead.
🔮 A 25% bonus is added to savings, up to a maximum of £1,000 per year. But a charge of 25% can apply of someone makes an unauthorised withdrawal, which may happen in cases where someone is aged under 60 and not withdrawing the money for their first home.
🔮 A net balance of 24% of professionals expect house prices to fall rather than increase in the next three months, but looking at price expectations over the next 12 months the net balance was zero – indicating that house prices are expected to be broadly unchanged in a year’s time.
🔮 The first denomination from the new series will be launched over the next few years, the Bank said.
🔮 “Whether that picture continues is likely to depend on how confident consumers feel that the latest cost‑of‑living pressures will prove temporary.
🔮 “Whether that picture continues is likely to depend on how confident consumers feel that the latest cost‑of‑living pressures will prove temporary.
🔮 “As emerging technologies such as AI become more widely available, fraudsters will continue to look for new ways to exploit them.
🔮 Among non-retirees, people wanted to retire at around 62 typically, but the average age at which they expected to stop working was around 67.
🔮 Ian Harris, president of NAEA (National Association of Estate Agents) Propertymark, said: “We are seeing first hand how sensitive buyers are to mortgage rates, and the rapid disappearance of sub-5% deals will inevitably add further pressure to affordability.
🔮 Ian Harris, president of NAEA (National Association of Estate Agents) Propertymark, said: “We are seeing first hand how sensitive buyers are to mortgage rates, and the rapid disappearance of sub-5% deals will inevitably add further pressure to affordability. “
Also by Vicky Shaw
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 44 articles by Vicky Shaw →

Topics

Propertymark StepChange The Bank of England the Bank (of England)’s

Subjects

Adam Butler PERSON · 1× Nathan Emerson PERSON · 1× Propertymark ORG · 1× StepChange ORG · 1× The Bank of England ORG · 1× the Bank (of England)’s ORG · 1×

Narrative

Lenders reported mortgage availability decreased in the three months to the end of August and it is expected to increase slightly over the three months to the end of November. Demand for mortgages for house purchase decreased in the three months to August, and is expected to increase slightly in the three months ahead. Remortgaging demand fell in the three months to August but it is also expected to increase in the period to the end of November. Nathan Emerson, chief executive at property professionals’ body Propertymark, said: “It is encouraging to see growing confidence around the potential demand for secured lending for house purchases and remortgaging in the months ahead.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-08
🔮 Lenders also said default rates on mortgages slightly decreased in the three months to August and are expected to be unchanged in the three months ahead.
2026-10-08 · Evening Standard
Lenders expect credit card defaults to increase in months ahead, survey finds · assertive framing

Claims (11 extracted, 2 hedged)

Defaults on credit cards are also expected by banks and building societies to increase in the three months to the end of November. asserted
Defaults → expect → November
Lenders also said default rates on mortgages slightly decreased in the three months to August and are expected to be unchanged in the three months ahead. asserted
rates → say → months
Meanwhile, default rates on loans to companies were unchanged in the three months to August and they are predicted by lenders to remain unchanged in the upcoming quarter. asserted
they → predict → quarter
Adam Butler, public policy manager at debt help charity StepChange, said: “Defaults on unsecured credit are rising as people struggle to make their regular repayments alongside essential bills. “With further price shocks to come in the winter with energy price rises, interest rates trending upwards, and wider consumer prices continuing to rise above the Bank (of England)’s target, we expect this to feed through into our advice service with continuing increased demand for support, with the charity already supporting 20% more clients than expected this year. asserted
charity → say → clients
The Bank of England carries out the Credit Conditions Survey each quarter as part of its role to maintain financial stability. asserted
Bank → carry → stability
The latest survey was carried out between August 17 and September 4 and so any impact from more recent developments will not be captured. asserted
impact → carry → developments
Lenders were asked to report changes in the three months to the end of August relative to the previous quarter year between March and May. uncertain
Lenders → ask → March
Read More They were also asked about their expectations for the three months to the end of November. asserted
They → read → November
Lenders reported mortgage availability decreased in the three months to the end of August and it is expected to increase slightly over the three months to the end of November. Demand for mortgages for house purchase decreased in the three months to August, and is expected to increase slightly in the three months ahead. Remortgaging demand fell in the three months to August but it is also expected to increase in the period to the end of November. Nathan Emerson, chief executive at property professionals’ body Propertymark, said: “It is encouraging to see growing confidence around the potential demand for secured lending for house purchases and remortgaging in the months ahead. asserted
It → report → months
“While the year has proved challenging for many consumers from an affordability perspective, improved access to finance could provide an important catalyst for greater confidence across the housing sector as we approach the end of the year and head into 2027. uncertain
we → prove → 2027
“Maintaining access to affordable lending will be important in helping the market build momentum and providing greater certainty for consumers.” asserted
market → maintain → consumers
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