Toronto Star
· collected 2026-10-08 · by Wouter F. Germans Jr., Contributor
Story summary
Amidst tensions between the Trump Administration and Canada, some Canadians have proposed cutting off energy exports as a response to American bullying. This so-called "nuclear option" would involve shutting down pipelines to the U.S., causing significant economic pain. However, Alberta, which relies heavily on these exports, is against this proposal. The October 19th vote in Alberta on whether to leave Canada further complicates the situation.
Historically, similar tactics have not been successful. For instance, pre-Civil War American cotton producers faced a comparable situation but ultimately failed when they tried to leverage their economic power by cutting off exports. This precedent raises doubts about the effectiveness of such an approach for Alberta's energy industry, which is similarly dependent on one major customer.
Canadians are hurt and angry at Trump’s behavior, making it tempting to retaliate. However, proponents of this strategy must consider its potential impacts not only economically but also in terms of relations with ordinary Americans who rely on Canadian imports.
Written for “Canada Nuclear Threats” on 2026-10-08,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Amidst the ongoing tension between the Trump Administration and Canada, some have floated the proposal that Canada should respond to American bullying by cutting off energy exports: use the nuclear option, turn off the pipelines, make them suffer.
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them → float → pipelines
I will note that the proposal comes from the rest of Canada, while Alberta wants to stand pat.
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Alberta → note → Canada
Canadians are hurt and angry at the behaviour of the current American administration, and the instinct to lash out is not unreasonable.
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instinct → hurt → administration
Being insulted by a friend and neighbour is intolerable, and doing nothing has its own price.
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doing → insult → price
But I would ask three questions before we push the nuclear embargo button.
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we → ask → button
When has this been tried before?
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this → try → ?
And what would it do to the average American?
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it → do → American
Albertans vote on the nineteenth of October on whether to begin leaving Canada, so this argument runs straight into that one.
Somebody has tried this at full scale, holding a better hand than ours, and failed.
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Somebody → vote → ours
Antebellum American cotton looked much like Alberta energy: one product, on one transportation network, to one customer, with excessive confidence in the economic power of that commodity.
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cotton → look → commodity
I want to be explicit that the Southern states went to war to preserve slavery, which is a moral gulf I am not crossing.
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I → want → slavery
I am analyzing economic leverage.
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I → analyze → leverage
In 1860, the American South grew roughly two thirds of the world’s cotton and supplied about four fifths of the raw material for Britain’s largest manufacturing industry.
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South → grow → industry
They called it King Cotton, and it made the South rich and arrogant.
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South → call → it
The South concluded it could move British foreign policy by withholding cotton and forcing an intervention in the American Civil War.
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it → conclude → War
Roughly two and a half million bales were burned to manufacture a shortage, and exports fell from about three million bales to a trickle.
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exports → burn → trickle
They called it King Cotton diplomacy.
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They → call → it
Whether an embargo works is settled by the customer, not by the seller.
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works → work → seller
Britain felt exactly the pain the South intended.
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South → feel → pain
British textile mills went idle, causing mass unemployment.
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mills → go → unemployment
Yet Britain did not enter the war on the South’s side.
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Britain → enter → side
Britain had stockpiled about a million bales in advance, which gave it the time to go shopping.
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which → stockpile → shopping
Through the 1860s, India raised cotton production by roughly seventy per cent, Egypt expanded, and efforts were made in Queensland and New Zealand.
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efforts → raise → Queensland
A commodity is fungible and can be replaced.
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commodity → replace → ?
You can hurt your customer badly and still lose.
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You → hurt → customer
The embargo did not produce compliance, it produced resolve.
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it → produce → resolve
Before the American Civil War cotton represented wealth.
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cotton → represent → wealth
After the war, cotton represented poverty.
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cotton → represent → poverty
King Cotton had been demoted.
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Cotton → demote → ?
My family is from Thomasville, Alabama, so I can attest to that.
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I → attest → that
Ours would run into the same wall.
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Ours → run → wall
Embargoing energy can cause real pain for Americans at the pumps, but we cannot make the administration reasonable.
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administration → embargo → pumps
We know how this works from our own side, because when President Trump says Canada needs to be the 51st state, our elbows go up.
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elbows → know → side
An economic moat is a position that gets harder to copy the more money it makes.
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it → get → ?
Every year of high prices is what funds the competition, whether that is planting more cotton or drilling more wells.
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that → fund → wells
This is why commodity traders say the cure for high prices is high prices.
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cure → say → prices
When you fill up your car, what matters more: the country the crude came from, or whether the unleaded is a few pennies cheaper than the station across the street?
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unleaded → fill → street
The dependence is real, but it cuts both ways.
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it → cut → ways
We are a large supplier earning a real rent, and we can be replaced.
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we → earn → rent
That is true whether the barrel is sold from inside Confederation or outside it.
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barrel → sell → it
Trevor Tombe at the University of Calgary set out the arithmetic for the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.
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Tombe → set → Corporation
…and 30 more, not listed.
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