When will we know the result of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Read the original at Evening Standard ↗
Evening Standard · collected 2026-10-08 · by Tom Place,Rachael Burford,Nicholas Cecil,Michael Howie and Stewart Carr

Quick Summary

The Holborn and St Pancras by-election in north London is happening today with Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green Party's Zack Polanski as the main contenders. The election follows controversy at the Green Party’s conference, which could impact Polanski's chances. Polling stations close at 10pm tonight, and results are typically announced between 3am and 4am the next morning, depending on voter turnout.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-08, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

The Holborn and St Pancras by-election in north London took place recently after Sir Keir Starmer stepped down as MP for the constituency following his departure from Downing Street. Labour's candidate, Sagal Abdi-Wali, Camden Council leader, was favored to win the seat that has been held by Labour since its creation in 1983. However, Green Party leader Zack Polanski also campaigned for a surprising victory.

The campaign intensified due to controversy surrounding recent Green Party conference decisions. The Greens voted over the weekend to designate Zionism as racism, a move that sparked significant public debate and scrutiny, potentially damaging Mr Polanski’s electoral prospects in north London since he was barred from entering Israel because of it. This decision placed Mr Polanski's candidacy firmly under the spotlight, impacting voter perceptions ahead of the by-election.

Written for “UK By-Election Results” on 2026-10-08, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
16
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
6%
1 of 16 hedged
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Correction & hedging signals
66.8
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-08 · how these are computed

Story

📰 UK By-Election Results
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 6% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 7% hedged 1 of 15 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles refer to different stages of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election campaign, with Article A discussing Polanski's absence from City Hall duties since being selected as a candidate, while Article B focuses on the upcoming polling day.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 23 📰 publisher trust 68
“Article A describes the opening of voting in the Holborn and St Pancras byelection, while Article B asks about when the results will be known, indicating they are discussing different phases of the same election.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 38% hedged 5 of 13 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles discuss the Holborn and St Pancras by-election but describe different stages or aspects of it: Article A talks about pre-election betting odds, while Article B discusses the day of the election itself.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 24 📰 publisher trust 67
“While both articles discuss the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on the same day, they describe different aspects: Article A covers live updates as polls open with multiple candidates involved, while Article B focuses on when results will be known and highlights specific candidates' positions.”
BBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5 📰 publisher trust 72
“Article A describes the voting process starting in the by-election, while Article B discusses the candidates and the political context but does not specify it as the exact moment of voting.”
Evening Standard
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 27 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles discuss the Holborn and St Pancras by-election but describe different aspects: one focuses on last-minute campaigning, while the other asks about when results will be known.”

Publisher

Evening Standard · 4058 article(s) · 32 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 32 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Rachael Burford
43 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 But events at the Green Party’s conference, where members voted over the weekend to define Zionism as racism leading to Mr Polanski being barred from entering Israel, could have damaged his electoral prospects in north London.
🔮 Southwark council Green leader James McAsh has launched a calculator, which gives residents an opportunity to decide what services could be cut, balance the budget and see the impact that savings could have.
🔮 I have no doubt that Sagal Abdi-Wali will make a brilliant local MP for Holborn and St. Pancras," Andy Burnham says.
🔮 During her keynote speech at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, she vowed to slash inheritance tax and cut benefits as she pitched the Tories as the “no drama” party to take on Andy Burnham’s Labour The leader said the next election will be a “battle for the soul of the nation” and promised her party would focus on letting people “keep more of what they earn”.
🔮 “But if I win, that will keep Labour in check and make sure they act on the things that matter to Holborn and St Pancras: affordable housing, safe communities, and securing a safe future for our children.”
🔮 All but one of the top 20 constituencies that would be most affected by the tax are in London, according to analysis by estate agency Hamptons, including Holborn and St Pancras, where one in five homes is valued at £1.5 million or more.
🔮 Deputy leader Rachel Millward called the motion “problematic” suggesting she would not vote for it. But her co-deputy, Mothin Ali, said he did support the move and would vote in favour of it.
🔮 Deputy leader Rachel Millward called the motion “problematic” suggesting she would not vote for it. But her co-deputy, Mothin Ali, said he did support the move.
🔮 A flagship Labour council in London will consider up to a 150% council tax rise on residents following sweeping cuts to its funding by central government.
🔮 Mr Polanski has pointed to his party’s performance at the 2024 general election and council polls held in May, where the Greens seized control of six local authorities in the capital.
Also by Rachael Burford
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 43 articles by Rachael Burford →
Nicholas Cecil
58 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Ministers have also admitted that the taxpayer could be left footing a bill for the controversial plan to expand the west London airport and are seeking guidance on “the Government exposure to programme costs and risks”.
🔮 But events at the Green Party’s conference, where members voted over the weekend to define Zionism as racism leading to Mr Polanski being barred from entering Israel, could have damaged his electoral prospects in north London.
🔮 Voters will go to the polls today as candidates fight to replace Sir Keir Starmer as the MP for Holborn and St Pancras.
🔮 Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali is 1-33 favourite, followed by Green Party leader Zack Polanski on 12-1, then George Galloway, between 100-1 and 200-1 but who could still influence the election’s outcome.
🔮 In her keynote speech to the Tory annual conference in Birmingham, Mrs Badenoch was due to say that her party will fight a “battle for the soul of the nation” at the next election centred on tax-cutting promises.
🔮 “But if I win, that will keep Labour in check and make sure they act on the things that matter to Holborn and St Pancras: affordable housing, safe communities, and securing a safe future for our children.”
🔮 Mr Griffith used his conference speech to make clear that a future Conservative government would back the runway and take action to overcome obstacles.
🔮 “You might be able to protect certain key sites, certain strategic areas, London would be an example, but of course that's not enough,” ex-RAF chief Mr Bagwell told Time Radio.
🔮 Of course, he may still win, that is the nature of political shocks.
🔮 “We will continue to co-operate with the authorities as the process continues.”
Also by Nicholas Cecil
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 58 articles by Nicholas Cecil →
Tom Place
94 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Commander Flanagan added: "We have worked extremely closely with relevant operational colleagues within the Ministry of Defence as our investigation has progressed to ensure appropriate measures could be taken to mitigate any potential risks linked to this matter. "
🔮 But events at the Green Party’s conference, where members voted over the weekend to define Zionism as racism leading to Mr Polanski being barred from entering Israel, could have damaged his electoral prospects in north London.
🔮 I have no doubt that Sagal Abdi-Wali will make a brilliant local MP for Holborn and St. Pancras," Andy Burnham says.
🔮 Schools in the two boroughs will contact parents and carers directly to confirm whether they will be fully open, partially open or closed.
🔮 Starting in Hyde Park and finishing in Kensington Gardens, more than 18,000 runners will pass Horse Guards Parade with views of the London Eye, run along The Mall twice, and pass both Kensington Palace and Buckingham Palace.
🔮 He has also been handed a five-year Sexual Harm Prevention Order (SHPO) that will bar him from speaking to, approaching, or touching any woman that he does not know and prevent him from sitting next to or near any woman, and has been ordered to sign onto the sex offender's register for 10 years.
🔮 Trains are suspended between Paddington and Reading/ Heathrow due to late-finishing engineering works, according to TfL. National Rail is reporting that disruption on the line is expected to last until 10am.
🔮 Luke Johnson, co-owner of Gail’s Bakery, said: “It is a disaster for the country that big taxpayers and important investors are leaving. “They help fund public services and create jobs, and their exits will create a growing hole in the national finances.
🔮 The message contains a link to a Telegram chat, threatening the ASOS DPO and IT departments to “engage with us, or we will leak it”.
🔮 Good morning Welcome to our live travel coverage - we will be bringing you all the latest updates from around the capital today.
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Michael Howie
53 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 But events at the Green Party’s conference, where members voted over the weekend to define Zionism as racism leading to Mr Polanski being barred from entering Israel, could have damaged his electoral prospects in north London.
🔮 Hundreds of students are set to take to the streets in central London today as pro-Palestine marches are held on the third anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attacks.
🔮 Trains are suspended between Paddington and Reading/ Heathrow due to late-finishing engineering works, according to TfL. National Rail is reporting that disruption on the line is expected to last until 10am.
🔮 Wet weather is expected to sweep across the capital from the morning, bringing outbreaks of rain and heavy showers throughout the day.
🔮 “But if I win, that will keep Labour in check and make sure they act on the things that matter to Holborn and St Pancras: affordable housing, safe communities, and securing a safe future for our children.”
🔮 “As leader, I will not accept any exclusion, or refusal to engage with anyone, because of the religious or communal body they are part of.
🔮 The NHS’s top doctor urged people to see a GP for any potential symptoms such as a lump, unusual bleeding or unexplained weight loss, saying: “Don’t put off a simple check-up because you think you’re too young, it could save your life.” WCRF analysed NHS data in England and compared the rates of diagnoses among people in 2001 and 2023.
🔮 “Migrants will be transported to short term holding facilities in Kent where they will be processed as normal and undergo stringent health, security and biometric checks.”
🔮 “We are working at pace to establish the full circumstances around the collision, and we are appealing to anyone who may have witnessed the incident to come forward.
🔮 They are: E1 5, E1 6, E1 7, E2 0, E2 8, E2 9, E5 0, E8 1, E8 2, E8 3, E8 4, E9 5, E9 6, E9 7, EC2A 2, EC2A 3, EC2A 4, EC2M 3, EC2M 4, EC3A 7, IG3 8, N1 0, N1 1, N1 2, N1 3, N1 4, N1 5, N1 7, N1 8, N5 2, NW8 7, W2 3. It estimated that power would be restored between midday and 1pm.
Also by Michael Howie
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All 53 articles by Michael Howie →
Stewart Carr
37 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 But events at the Green Party’s conference, where members voted over the weekend to define Zionism as racism leading to Mr Polanski being barred from entering Israel, could have damaged his electoral prospects in north London.
🔮 Since declaring his interest in the seat in early September, he has given apologies for four committee meetings and left a session of Mayor's Question Time after putting a question to Sir Sadiq Khan.
🔮 Joshua Kerry, 28, is accused of one count of preparation of terrorist acts relating to alleged activity between May 31 2024 and July 8 2026, Counter Terrorism Policing (CTP) announced on Friday.
🔮 Joshua Kerry, 28, has been charged with one count of preparation of terrorist acts between May 31, 2024 and July 8 this year.
🔮 US court documents show that in 2015, Ms Speitan was “willing to testify” but that an unspecified medical condition “prevents her from travelling by air”.
🔮 Officers investigating the incident have now issued a photograph of a man they believe may have information that could help their enquiries.
🔮 Coulson was the appointed person to plan the lifting operations on the site and was in overall control of them. Ms Healy said it was not necessary for him to be permanently on site, but he must periodically visit the site to see whether any factors had changed which might necessitate a change to the lift plan.
🔮 Brought forward by the members' group Greens 4 Palestine, it defines Zionism as a political ideology advocating "an ethno-nationalist Jewish State" and calls for the establishment of a single Palestinian state with equal rights for all citizens, including Jewish people. However, the motion also states that Zionism should be “treated as any other form of racism”, which critics point out could include practicing Jews and members of synagogues across Britain - making it impossible for them to join the Greens.
🔮 A future Conservative government would "do whatever it takes" to deliver a third runway at Heathrow, as Labour leader Andy Burnham continues to keep an "open mind" on plans to expand Britain's busiest airport.
🔮 I just feel one couple had the edge with a little bit more power, more refinement, so I will be saving Jaime and Carlos.”
2026-10-04 · assertive framing · Who was axed in the first Strictly dance off?
Also by Stewart Carr
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Topics

Britain Holborn Labour London St Pancras

Subjects

Labour NORP · 3× Andy Burnham PERSON · 2× Holborn GPE · 2× London GPE · 2× Polanski PERSON · 2× Sagal Abdi-Wali PERSON · 2× St Pancras GPE · 2× Britain GPE · 1× Camden Council ORG · 1× Green Party ORG · 1×

Narrative

The campaign intensified in recent days amid growing scrutiny of the Greens following their conference vote to designate Zionism as a form of racism, a move that sparked controversy and placed Mr Polanski's candidacy firmly in the spotlight.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-08
🔮 But events at the Green Party’s conference, where members voted over the weekend to define Zionism as racism leading to Mr Polanski being barred from entering Israel, could have damaged his electoral prospects in north London.
2026-10-08 · Evening Standard
When will we know the result of the Holborn and St Pancras by-election? · assertive framing

Claims (16 extracted, 1 hedged)

The Holborn and St Pancras by-election is taking place today. asserted
election → take → place
The battle has become one of the most closely-watched political contests in Britain. asserted
battle → become → Britain
Labour's candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, remains the favourite to win the north London seat that has been held by the party since its creation in 1983. asserted
that → remain → 1983
But Green Party leader Zack Polanski is hoping to pull off a shock victory and secure a place at Westminster. asserted
Polanski → hop → Westminster
The campaign intensified in recent days amid growing scrutiny of the Greens following their conference vote to designate Zionism as a form of racism, a move that sparked controversy and placed Mr Polanski's candidacy firmly in the spotlight. asserted
that → intensify → spotlight
The by-election was triggered after Sir Keir Starmer stepped down as MP for the constituency last month, following his departure from Downing Street and the election of Andy Burnham as Labour leader and Prime Minister. asserted
Starmer → trigger → leader
But events at the Green Party’s conference, where members voted over the weekend to define Zionism as racism leading to Mr Polanski being barred from entering Israel, could have damaged his electoral prospects in north London. uncertain
Polanski → vote → London
Cllr Sagal Abdi-Wali is Labour’s candidate to replace Sir Keir in the by-election. asserted
Wali → replace → election
She has served as leader of Camden council since her predecessor, Richard Olszewski, lost his seat on the local authority to the Green Party. asserted
predecessor → serve → Party
When will we know the result? asserted
we → know → result
The count will begin after polling stations close at 10pm today (Thursday). asserted
stations → begin → pm
The result of by-elections usually are announced in the early hours of the morning the following day. asserted
result → announce → morning
In 2024, the result in the General Election vote in Holborn and St Pancras was announced at 4.15am. asserted
result → announce → 4.15am
The time we know the result of the by-election will be influenced by the size of the turnout. asserted
we → know → turnout
The last two by-elections in the UK saw turnouts of 44.1% (in Clacton on August 13, 2026, when Nigel Farage regained his seat), and 58.8% (in Makerfield on June 18, 2026, when Prime Minister Andy Burnham was elected MP). asserted
Burnham → see → June
The result is expected to be announced between 3am and 4am tomorrow (Friday). asserted
result → expect → am
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