LAST month, at the London School of Economics’ Environment Week, the International Growth Centre asked a roundtable of policymakers, researchers and funders how evidence systems should change to support harder climate choices.
asserted
systems → ask → choices
I opened with a case: a major climate decision Pakistan took without the evidence it needed.
asserted
it → open → evidence
The obvious diagnosis is that the evidence did not exist.
asserted
evidence → exist → ?
When a third of the country went under water, every decision that followed, from evacuation to the Geneva appeal, was taken in the dark.
asserted
that → go → dark
Yet the Met department had forecast an above-normal monsoon.
asserted
department → forecast → monsoon
The national socio-economic registry held geo-coded records on 38 million households.
asserted
registry → hold → households
River and satellite data sat with Wapda, the Federal Flood Commission and Suparco.
asserted
data → sit → Wapda
The knowledge existed, in different buildings.
asserted
knowledge → exist → buildings
No one was mandated to bring it to the table.
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one → mandate → table
Pakistan does not have a data shortage.
asserted
Pakistan → have → shortage
What Pakistan lacks is a chain of custody: someone legally obliged to carry evidence to the point of decision.
asserted
lacks → lack → decision
The five federal agencies that hold hazard data share no protocol.
asserted
that → hold → protocol
The roundtable framed three tensions: whether evidence serves the decisions governments actually take, whether it arrives in time to be used, and whether it supports implementation or only design.
asserted
it → frame → implementation
In Pakistan, each tension marks a break in that chain.
asserted
tension → mark → chain
Each break has a price tag.
asserted
break → have → tag
Pakistan’s research agenda follows what funders find easy to finance, not what the state must prioritise.
asserted
state → follow → what
A warning system has four parts: knowing the risk, forecasting it, getting the message out, and making people act on it.
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people → have → it
Since before the 2022 floods, the money has gone to the first two.
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money → go → two
Radars can be procured, counted and inaugurated.
asserted
Radars → procure → ?
Nor has the state compiled basic baselines: tested district plans, embankment condition, maintenance costs.
asserted
state → compile → baselines
The reason is elite capture: new schemes bring contracts, win constituencies and visibility.
asserted
schemes → bring → constituencies
Maintenance brings none.
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Maintenance → bring → none
Pakistan models slowly what it needs fast and leaves its fastest evidence unconnected.
asserted
it → model → evidence
The five federal agencies that hold hazard data share no protocol.
asserted
that → hold → protocol
In Buner in August 2025, a red alert was in force and households still did not move.
asserted
households → move → force
No one told them what to do, and local governments had no assigned role in last-mile delivery.
asserted
governments → tell → delivery
An SMS that says a flood is coming is information, not a warning for immediate action.
asserted
flood → say → action
Laid over hazard maps, it could tell a provincial authority within hours who stands in the path of a surge and how to pay them.
uncertain
who → lay → them
It is the most decision-ready evidence Pakistan owns.
asserted
Pakistan → own → ?
It costs nothing new to produce.
asserted
It → cost → nothing
Usable evidence in Pakistan rarely needs a better model.
asserted
evidence → need → model
It needs a legal duty to share and an interface between databases that already exist.
asserted
that → need → databases
They reached only households already on the registry.
asserted
They → reach → registry
Exclusion ran to a third in some districts, and nearly half the unregistered did not know how to register.
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unregistered → run → districts
No one was tasked with the evidence that would have exposed the gap during delivery.
asserted
that → task → delivery
Damage assessment has no owner either.
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assessment → have → owner
No platform links damage to recovery, and there is no loss and damage registry.
asserted
platform → link → recovery
The 2022 needs assessment was built for the Geneva appeal, not the reconstruction.
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assessment → build → appeal
Pakistan chaired the G77 when the loss and damage fund was agreed at COP27.
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fund → chair → COP27
A country that cannot document its losses will struggle to draw on the fund it fought to create.
asserted
it → document → fund
…and 18 more, not listed.
The Aporia
