The Guardian
· collected 2026-10-07 · by Richard Adams Education editor
Labour's plans to reform special education in England are facing challenges as parents rush to secure existing support for their children before the new system takes effect, according to analysis by the Institute for Government (IfG). The thinktank warns that if the government does not address this surge in applications for Education, Health and Care Plans (EHCPs), it risks overestimating its ability to implement changes by 2030. Amber Dellar, author of the IfG report, highlights a "moral hazard" where parents seek EHCPs now due to uncertainty about future support options, potentially undermining the government's financial assumptions for these reforms.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-07,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Labour’s flagship changes to special education in England are at risk of unravelling because parents are rushing to secure support for their children before the system changes, new analysis has found.
asserted
analysis → unravel → children
The Institute for Government (IfG) thinktank says the government’s plans to largely replace education, health and care plans (EHCPs) in England with more widespread support in mainstream schools may be too optimistic and take longer to complete than its 2030 timeline.
uncertain
plans → say → timeline
The thinktank’s report calls on the government to review the timetable for the changes.
asserted
report → call → changes
And it suggests that if ministers do not act they “risk basing both their reforms and spending plans on assumptions that the system cannot deliver”.
uncertain
system → suggest → that
The news will be seen as a sign that the government’s ambitious plans to overhaul the special education system did not reckon with the scale of worry among parents, many of whom appear to have acted to ensure support and avoid uncertainty in the future.
asserted
many → see → future
The Guardian recently reported that councils and schools have reported a surge in applications for EHCPs, with one school describing the level as “unreal” compared with previous years.
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school → report → years
Several councils are now projecting that at the current rates of increase, nearly one in 10 pupils will have an EHCP by 2029.
asserted
pupils → project → 2029
Amber Dellar, the author of the IfG report out this week, said the long rollout of the changes created a “moral hazard” that encouraged parents to apply for EHCPs now rather than wait for the new system.
asserted
that → say → system
“There’s a ‘use it before you lose it’ dynamic, as schools and parents have an incentive to secure EHCPs before they are phased out, because there’s a lot of uncertainty about what these new specialist packages of support will contain and who will be eligible for them,” she said.
asserted
she → ’ → them
Dellar said the government’s plans added new resources in order to reduce the need for families to seek EHCPs, the individualised packages of support agreed between parents and local authorities that can be enforced by specialist tribunals.
asserted
that → say → tribunals
But Dellar said budgets for the additional resources for special educational needs and disabilities (Send) would be eroded if demands for EHCPs shot above the government’s own forecasts, with councils saying they have to keep issuing EHCPs until the existing legislation is repealed.
asserted
legislation → say → EHCPs
She said: “The government has a lot riding on the reforms taking effect before they fully kick in – its spending plans for the parliament have some assumptions about savings baked in that are based in particular on them being able to slow the growth or the trajectory of numbers of pupils with EHCPs.
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them → say → EHCPs
“It has a lot politically riding on it as well, and of course in terms of the wellbeing of the children and families involved.”
asserted
It → have → children
A Department for Education (DfE) spokesperson said: “The figures in this report are speculative and there is no evidence that proposed reforms are driving additional EHCP demand.
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reforms → say → demand
“We inherited a Send system with record numbers of EHCPs and families waiting months for support.
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We → inherit → support
We are already investing to change that, backing schools to improve inclusion, widening access to specialists and rolling out training for every teacher to better support children before needs escalate.
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needs → invest → children
“It is vital that we take the time needed to get this right, but we are completely committed to the implementation timelines set out in the schools white paper and will announce next steps soon.”
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we → take → steps
The changes announced in February under Keir Starmer’s administration promised to overhaul a system that parents have denounced for forcing them to seek EHCPs to secure specialist support or a place in a special school.
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parents → announce → school
Many parents said the EHCP application process – introduced by the Conservatives in 2014 – required lengthy waits for NHS assessments for conditions such as ADHD or autism, or great expense for those who could afford private assessments.
uncertain
who → say → assessments
Families then face bureaucratic delays from schools and local authorities, or legal appeals to a specialist Send tribunal to override councils’ objections.
asserted
Families → face → objections
Mark Franks, the director of welfare at the Nuffield Foundation, which funded the report, said: “While there is broad agreement that the current system is under strain, uncertainty and concern remain about whether future levels of investment and the nature of reform will be sufficient to provide high-quality support for all children and young people.”
asserted
levels → fund → children
The IfG said the additional costs of Send provision could erode the extra funding being offered for state schools in England, saying it could absorb “around two-thirds of the generous schools funding uplift over this parliament”.
uncertain
it → say → parliament
The package of changes would see mainstream schools given greater support for pupils with special needs, including the creation of specialist bases, allowing pupils to attend local schools and reduce pressure on special schools.
asserted
pupils → see → schools
The DfE also wants individual support plans to replace many EHCPs, which would be retained for children with the most profound needs.
asserted
which → want → needs
The IfG said: “It is not clear exactly how the reforms will slow the growth in EHCPs before the new system is fully in place.”
asserted
system → say → place
Dellar said: “The government is making investments now, in early intervention and in specialist bases.
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government → say → bases
But the whole way the government is approaching these Send reforms is deliberately to take a slow, phased approach – largely because it knows that those investments are going to take a while to have an effect.
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investments → approach → effect
“Its investments in early assessment are going to take a little time to bear fruit.
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investments → go → fruit
It has not yet properly set out exactly what preventative support it wants schools to put in place.
asserted
schools → set → place
So until schools have that, it’s unclear that they will actually be able to start doing the work the government wants them to do.
uncertain
them → have → work
“On top of that, the system is tightly bound by existing legislation.
asserted
system → bind → legislation
Local authorities [LAs] in particular have quite strict guidelines, and tribunals suggest that there are often disputes over eligibility for EHCPs but LAs are likely to be pulled towards the law as it stands until the law changes.”
asserted
law → have → law
The Aporia
