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A poll commissioned by Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton shows him trailing Democrat Xavier Becerra by less than 6 points in the upcoming California election, despite nearly 59% of Californians believing the state is headed in the wrong direction. This sentiment aligns with previous polls indicating widespread dissatisfaction among voters regarding high costs and taxes under Democratic governance, yet they continue to support Democrats at the polls. The article suggests that while a sudden shift similar to Florida’s might not occur this year, it highlights growing voter discontent and the potential for future electoral change in California.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-07,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
A recent poll commissioned by GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton shows him trailing Democratic incumbent Xavier Becerra, the former Health and Human Services Secretary, by less than 6 points. However, nearly three-fourths of undecided voters would likely choose Becerra if forced to make a decision now. A poll from the Public Policy Institute of California indicates that 54% of Californians think the state is headed in the wrong direction and expect economic conditions to worsen for the state in the coming years, with 71% expecting things to get worse economically. Despite this pessimism, Becerra maintains a consistent lead over Hilton according to most polls.
Written for “California Democratic Governance Unpo…” on 2026-10-07,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.45, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph
rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 63544: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-07
Democrats are seemingly on their way to yet another round of victories in California’s elections, and yet polls continue to show that California voters disapprove of the state’s direction.
asserted
voters → continue → direction
At what point does the electoral dam finally break?
asserted
dam → break → ?
A poll by David Wolfson, commissioned by GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton, shows Hilton trailing Democratic candidate, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, by less than 6 points.
asserted
Hilton → commission → points
This comes with the obvious caveats: Nearly three-fourths of the 14% of voters who are undecided would choose Becerra if push came to shove, and the poll is an outlier compared to the polling average, which has Becerra consistently leading by double digits.
asserted
Becerra → come → digits
The poll found that nearly 59% of Californians say the state is headed in the wrong direction, compared to just 28% who think it is going in the right direction.
asserted
it → find → direction
A poll from the Public Policy Institute of California found Becerra with a comfortable lead, but also found that 54% of Californians think the state is headed in the wrong direction, and 71% expect things to get economically worse for the state in the coming years.
asserted
things → find → years
In 2024, a poll by the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, showed 57% of Californians thought the state was headed in the wrong direction, with Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D-CA) approval underwater at 46% to 47%.
asserted
approval → show → %
In 2022, the same polling outfit had “wrong direction” leading on the same question at 54% to 36%.
asserted
outfit → have → %
Every election cycle, Californians think their state is headed in the wrong direction, thanks to exorbitantly high costs (which are higher than any other state) and ever-increasing taxes that never seem to fund the ever-growing budget.
asserted
that → think → budget
And yet, those voters still can’t bring themselves to turn against the Democratic Party that has a monopoly on the state in favor.
asserted
that → bring → favor
That doesn’t mean change can’t happen, and can’t happen suddenly.
asserted
change → mean → ?
The margin of victory for Ron DeSantis in Florida’s gubernatorial races jumped from 0.4 points in 2018 to more than 19 points in 2022.
asserted
margin → jump → 2022
In comparison, Newsom’s 2022 victory against a little-known GOP state senator was narrower in 2022 than DeSantis’s, meaning that a sudden shift in the opposite direction would result in a GOP win.
asserted
shift → know → win
That win likely won’t happen this November, based on the polling, but California voters are stewing on years of dissatisfaction with how their state has been governed by Democrats.
asserted
state → happen → Democrats
At some point, you expect that the dam will break.
asserted
dam → expect → point
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