Trump’s approval is underwater in vast majority of states as Americans have had enough, new survey finds

Read the original at The Independent ↗
The Independent · collected 2026-10-07 · by Brendan Rascius

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Story summary

As midterm elections approach in late 2022, a new state-by-state tracker from Civiqs shows that President Donald Trump's approval rating is underwater, meaning more voters disapprove than approve of his job performance, in 39 states. This includes both Democratic strongholds like New York and California, as well as traditionally Republican states such as Nebraska and Texas, where 57% of voters disapprove. Only 11 states show higher approval ratings, all of which voted for Trump in the past three presidential elections. The data suggests growing voter frustration over economic issues and foreign policy, particularly regarding Iran, potentially putting Republican congressional majorities at risk in upcoming midterms.

Written for “Trump Approval Ratings Low” on 2026-10-07, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans left for article 63491 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-07

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
26
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
12%
3 of 26 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
58.8
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-10-07 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Trump Approval Ratings Low
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 12% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left 🔴 50% hedged 5 of 10 📰 publisher trust 60
“While both articles discuss low approval ratings for Trump around the same time period, they describe different aspects of polling data (overall rating vs. state-by-state tracker).”

Publisher

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Who wrote this

Brendan Rascius
54 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 As support for Trump wanes, polls suggest Republicans could face a bruising midterm election, with control of both the House and Senate at stake.
🔮 At a rally in Nebraska on Monday, Trump discussed rising prices tied to the ongoing Iran war, calling them “a small price to pay for keeping the world safe, keeping our country safe.” “They could take out a city.
🔮 Bill Maher predicted that Republican party will suffer a “historical a** whooping” in the November midterm elections due to President Donald Trump’s unpopularity.
🔮 “A continuation of the false narrative that there were minimal consequences in this case is irresponsible, will make survivors feel less safe and supported, and will perpetuate the underreporting of sexual assault.”
🔮 “A continuation of the false narrative that there were minimal consequences in this case is irresponsible, will make survivors feel less safe and supported, and will perpetuate the underreporting of sexual assault.”
🔮 “This may be felony criminal theft and conversion of government property for political campaign purposes,” Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat, wrote on X in late September.
🔮 Trump claimed in a Truth Social post that the agreement “gives the United States permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland, completely addressing ALL of our many U.S. concerns.” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the agreement “strengthens our common security in the Arctic and the North Atlantic area” while “at the same time recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom and the right of the Greenlandic people to self-determination.” Since returning to office, Trump has repeatedly voiced interest in bringing Greenland under U.S. control and has at times suggested he could use military force to do so, prompting sharp condemnation from Greenlandic and European officials.
🔮 Several prominent GOP senators told The Hill that Hegseth provided little advance notice and few specifics about the decision, including which positions would be eliminated and how the Pentagon determined where to make cuts.
🔮 Washingtonian acknowledged that some selections could prove divisive.
🔮 In a video posted on social media, Hegseth said the stand-down would be held in October during election years.
Also by Brendan Rascius
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 54 articles by Brendan Rascius →

Topics

Civiqs Democratic Independent Iran Republicans

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 10× Republicans NORP · 4× Democratic NORP · 3× Democrats NORP · 3× Congress ORG · 2× Iran GPE · 2× Republican NORP · 2× Texas GPE · 2× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Independent NORP · 1×

Narrative

The findings are just the latest indication that Trump’s support is eroding after mounting voter frustration over the cost of living and the Iran war — and that Republicans are at risk of losing their congressional majorities in the midterms.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-07
🔮 As support for Trump wanes, polls suggest Republicans could face a bruising midterm election, with control of both the House and Senate at stake.

Claims (26 extracted, 3 hedged)

With the midterm elections just weeks away, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is underwater in a super-majority of states, according to new polling. uncertain
rating → accord → polling
In a new state-by-state tracker from Civiqs, an online polling firm, more registered voters disapproved than approved of Trump’s job performance in 39 states. asserted
voters → register → states
The list includes Democratic strongholds like New York, California and Illinois, as well as some reliably Republican states such as Nebraska, Kentucky and Tennessee. asserted
list → include → Nebraska
In Texas, for instance, 57 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, as do 54 percent in Florida. asserted
percent → disapprove → Florida
Trump’s approval exceeded his disapproval in 11 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming. asserted
approval → exceed → states
All 11 states voted for him in the past three presidential elections. asserted
states → vote → elections
The findings are just the latest indication that Trump’s support is eroding after mounting voter frustration over the cost of living and the Iran war — and that Republicans are at risk of losing their congressional majorities in the midterms. asserted
Republicans → erode → midterms
In recent months, the president’s approval rating has hovered near historic lows. asserted
rating → hover → lows
Public support for Trump fell to 32 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos survey released in late September — the lowest mark of his political career and below any approval rating recorded by Joe Biden. asserted
support → fall → Biden
“They don't just dislike him,” CNN data analyst Harry Enten said on September 25. asserted
Enten → dislike → September
Trump has fared even worse on individual issues. asserted
Trump → fare → issues
An AP-NORC poll released this month found that just 17 percent of U.S. adults approve of his handling of the cost of living, while 26 percent approve of his handling of the economy. asserted
percent → release → economy
The same poll found that 28 percent approve of his handling of the war with Iran, while 69 percent said the war has not been worth fighting. asserted
war → find → Iran
The war has stretched on for seven months with no clear end in sight. asserted
war → stretch → sight
It has led to the deaths of at least 18 service members, cost taxpayers over $30 billion and spiked fuel prices. asserted
It → lead → prices
On Wednesday, the national average cost for a gallon of gasoline stood at $4.36, up from $2.98 two days before the war broke out in February, according to AAA. uncertain
war → stand → AAA
As support for Trump wanes, polls suggest Republicans could face a bruising midterm election, with control of both the House and Senate at stake. uncertain
Republicans → wan → stake
Polls released by NBC News last month showed Democrats with a 9-point advantage over Republicans in the race for control of Congress, driven largely by independents favoring Democratic candidates ahead of November. asserted
Polls → release → November
Some Republicans, meanwhile, have pointed out that polls predicting decisive victories for one party have been wrong in the past. asserted
polls → point → past
Trump himself has recently described polls he opposes as “fake.” asserted
he → describe → polls
Last month, he wrote on Truth Social that the GOP would do “well” in the midterms and reminded his supporters to “pretend I am on the ballot.” asserted
I → write → ballot
Still, in a recent analysis, polling expert Nate Silver wrote that the “cautious view” of pundits who describe the midterm race as close is becoming harder to justify. asserted
who → write → race
“This cautious view is misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterm elections, especially when the incumbent president is as unpopular as Trump,” Silver wrote. asserted
Silver → misalign → Trump
“There’s not much longer to go…and both national polls and race-by-race polls have been extremely strong for Democrats since Labor Day.” asserted
polls → ’ → Day
Democrats also appear poised to perform well outside of Congress. asserted
Democrats → appear → Congress
A recent Siena University survey found Democratic candidates leading their Republican rivals in gubernatorial contests in four red states: Ohio, Iowa, Texas and Alaska. asserted
candidates → find → states
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