Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey report that Zavodovski Island, home to the world's largest chinstrap penguin colony, has experienced a significant population collapse. Between 2011 and 2025, the number of chinstrap penguins declined by more than 680,000, or nearly two-thirds, due primarily to climate-driven changes affecting krill populations in the Southern Ocean. The study suggests that this decline should lead to chinstraps being redesignated as endangered by the IUCN from their current "least concern" status.
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Story summary
Researchers at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) published a study in *Current Biology* revealing a dramatic decline in penguin populations on Zavodovski Island, located near Antarctica. Drone and satellite images showed that over 680,000 chinstrap penguins, nearly two-thirds of the colony, vanished between 2011 and 2025. The population collapse is attributed to climate-driven changes affecting ocean food chains.
Lead author Dr. Norman Ratcliffe noted this rapid loss could signal broader issues for chinstrap penguin populations across the South Sandwich Islands, which are home to 38% of all chinstraps globally. These findings suggest that the species should be redesignated as "endangered" by the *International Union for Conservation of Nature* (IUCN), a sharp downgrade from their current classification of "least concern." This reclassification would highlight the urgent need for conservation efforts to protect these penguins from extinction.
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A remote island near Antarctica is no longer home to the world's largest penguin colony as climate-driven changes to ocean food chains likely devastated its once-thriving inhabitants and caused a "population collapse," researchers said Wednesday.
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researchers → drive → collapse
Drone and satellite images showed that the volcanic island of Zavodovski lost more than 680,000 — or nearly two-thirds — of its chinstrap penguins between 2011 and 2025, according to the British Antarctic Survey (BAS).
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island → show → Survey
"That's a very rapid loss," Norman Ratcliffe, the lead author of the BAS study published in the journal Current Biology, told AFP.
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Ratcliffe → publish → AFP
The study's findings raise concerns that chinstrap populations across the South Sandwich Islands, which include Zavodovski and are home to 38% of the species, have fallen.
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which → raise → species
The scientists, who released video of their research, suggest that the "alarming declines" should lead to chinstrap penguins being redesignated as "endangered" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN).
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penguins → release → Nature
This would be a sharp downgrade from their "least concern" classification, which means they are not currently threatened with extinction.
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they → mean → extinction
Surveys in 2011 had concluded that chinstrap populations across the South Sandwich Islands were stable.
But their number on Zavodovski fell from around 1.09 million breeding individuals in January 2011 to 402,000 in 2025, or a 63% decline, according to the study.
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number → conclude → study
The island is also home to a different species, macaroni penguins, whose population rose from around 338,000 in 2011 to 433,000 in 2025 -- and now outnumber chinstraps.
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population → rise → chinstraps
Together, chinstraps and macaronis now total more than 835,000 on Zavodovski.
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chinstraps → total → Zavodovski
The researchers said the Adelie penguins of Cape Adare, on the other side of Antarctica, are now the world's largest penguin colony, numbering more than one million as of 2018.
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penguins → say → 2018
"Most striking change"
Zavodovski island's Mount Curry volcano erupted in 2016, sparking fears that it could wipe out its penguin population.
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it → erupt → population
But the researchers found that the ash cloud was blown northeast over an area not inhabited by the flightless birds.
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cloud → find → birds
"The decline in chinstrap colony area was in progress prior to the eruption and continued at a constant rate thereafter," the study said.
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study → continue → rate
"We don't think the volcano is implicated or it's not the main driver (of the population decline) because what we see is a linear decline in the chinstrap penguins," Ratcliffe told AFP.
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Ratcliffe → think → AFP
Instead, the scientists linked the drop in chinstrap numbers to a reduction in the availability of krill -- the tiny shrimp-like creatures that are their main food source.
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that → link → krill
Warming ocean temperatures have pushed the crustaceans south toward colder waters, which chinstraps do not tolerate.
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chinstraps → warm → which
"We think that climate change operating through food webs is probably the main driver," Ratcliffe said.
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Ratcliffe → think → webs
The island's chinstrap population has been falling at a rate of 7% per year.
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population → fall → year
Macaroni penguins have increased in number over the same period as they eat a wider range of prey than chinstraps.
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they → increase → chinstraps
Their survival also supports the idea that the volcanic eruption was not a factor in the chinstrap's demise.
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eruption → support → demise
"The observed numerical shift from chinstraps to macaronis on Zavodovski represents the most striking change in penguin community composition that has been observed at a single location in Antarctica to date," the study said.
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study → observe → date
"The most plausible explanation for the observed patterns of population change is that a climate-induced regime shift has occurred that has been detrimental to the maritime Antarctic chinstraps but has favored the subantarctic macaronis."
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that → observe → macaronis
A study released earlier this year found that warming temperatures are forcing chinstrap, Adelie and gentoo penguins to
posing a big problem for the species.
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temperatures → release → species
The change in habits is setting up potential food problems for young chicks.
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change → set → chicks
The new study comes about six months after the emperor penguin was
an endangered species.
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penguin → come → ?
Researchers from the British Antarctic Survey and University of Southampton that Antarctica's emperor penguin population may be declining faster than even the most pessimistic predictions.
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population → decline → predictions
Images showed the species, recognizable by their height and yellow patches, declined in Antarctica by 22% between 2009 and 2024.
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species → show → 2009
The Aporia
