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The Guardian
· collected 2026-10-07 · by Jillian Ambrose Energy correspondent
Shell’s refineries are projected to nearly double their profit margin to $42 per barrel of fuel from July to September, compared to $24 a barrel in the second quarter and a previous high of around $28 mid-2022. This significant increase is attributed to global shortages and rising refined fuel prices relative to crude oil costs, particularly due to refinery shutdowns in conflict zones like the Middle East and Russia. Shell reported an almost $10 billion profit for the second quarter of 2026, more than double that of the same period last year, driven by high gas and diesel prices despite a slight drop in global oil prices.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-07,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
In its third quarter 2026 outlook, Shell upgraded its integrated gas production forecast to 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOED), a significant increase from the previous estimate of 570,000 to 630,000 BOED, driven by the acquisition of Canadian energy firm ARC Resources. Additionally, Shell expects its refining profit margins for chemicals and products to nearly double to $42 per barrel, up from $24 in the second quarter. This growth is attributed to global fuel shortages following refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia, driving up prices for refined fuels like diesel. The outlook highlights Shell's strategic focus on energy transition while maintaining robust financial performance amid geopolitical tensions.
Written for “Shell Profit Outlook Growth” on 2026-10-07,
grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political
question, so it has no leaning score. That is an
answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly
or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it
anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political
position.
No political leaning scored for article 62272 · logged 2026-10-07
Shell’s refineries are expected to make almost double the profit from every barrel of fuel produced owing to record prices caused by shortages around the world.
asserted
refineries → expect → world
In a market trading update on Wednesday, the energy supermajor forecast profit margins of $42 a barrel in the July to September period, far above the $24 a barrel of the second quarter and the previous high of about $28 in mid-2022.
asserted
supermajor → forecast → mid-2022
The margins reflect the steep increase in the price of refined fuels, including diesel, relative to the cost of crude oil, as the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia squeezes supplies.
asserted
shutdown → reflect → supplies
The Middle East crisis helped Europe’s biggest oil and gas company to a profit of almost $10bn (£7.5bn) for the second quarter of 2026, more than double the figure for the same period last year and its second highest quarterly earnings on record.
asserted
crisis → help → record
The market value of Shell, now the second largest company on the UK’s FTSE 100 index, climbed to a record high of £36.23 a share at the end of last month.
asserted
value → climb → month
That share price was reached despite oil prices retreating from their 2026 peak of above $115 a barrel in spring to about $100.
asserted
prices → reach → 100
It was lifted by European gas prices, which doubled from the previous year over the summer, and record high diesel prices.
asserted
which → lift → summer
Brent crude averaged $85.60 a barrel, compared with $97.05 in the second quarter, but still well above the $68.14 recorded in the third quarter last year.
asserted
crude → average → quarter
The diesel price premium over the global oil benchmark jumped above $100 a barrel for the first time, indicating record high profits from refining crude into fuels.
asserted
premium → jump → fuels
Shell operates some of Europe’s largest refineries alongside the French energy company TotalEnergies, which has the continent’s largest refining capacity.
asserted
which → operate → capacity
TotalEnergies’ chief executive, Patrick Pouyanné, welcomed the opportunities created by the global energy crisis.
asserted
executive → welcome → crisis
He told an industry conference in London this week: “We’re doing really well by being integrated.
asserted
We → tell → London
Integration means your refineries in Europe, which you thought were liabilities, are suddenly becoming goldmines.”
asserted
you → mean → Europe
Europe’s benchmark gas price index more than doubled to €70.50 (£60) in August.
asserted
index → double → August
The price of gas reached an average of more than €48 a megawatt-hour in the second quarter before leaping to almost €64/MWh in the third quarter.
asserted
price → reach → quarter
Shell’s gas production has been hard-hit by the Iran crisis, which led to severe damage to one of its key gas processing facilities in the Gulf, cutting its prewar gas production of 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOED) by a third.
asserted
which → hit → third
Shell said on Wednesday that it expects gas production to climb to about 740,000 to 780,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, up sharply from its previous forecast of 570,000 to 630,000 BOED for the quarter.
asserted
production → say → quarter
It produced about 631,000 BOED in the second quarter.
asserted
It → produce → quarter
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