Scientists warn that parts of the northern Caspian could face an Aral Sea-like scenario, while climate change and human water use are adding pressure on the region.
uncertain
change → warn → region
The Caspian Sea is the largest inland body of water on Earth, but for years it has been shrinking.
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it → shrink → years
The northern and north-eastern parts along Kazakhstan's coast form the shallowest sector of the Caspian Sea, typically ranging between just three and six metres.
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parts → form → metres
But as water levels continue to fall, following decades of climate change and human activity, environmentalists are discovering clusters of under-water islands.
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environmentalists → continue → islands
The latest was spotted days ago near Kulaly Island during a recent aerial survey.
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latest → spot → survey
Volunteer and environmental activist Daniyar Akimzhanov was part of the group that reported the discovery.
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that → report → discovery
He says that the newly emerged island is relatively small, but it is far from an isolated case.
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it → say → case
In fact, over the past four to five years, Akimzhanov says he has documented several new islands in this part of the Caspian Sea.
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he → say → Sea
“The one in the photo I sent you is the smallest.
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I → send → you
There are much bigger new islands,” he explains.
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he → be → ?
The Caspian Sea's secret islands
Some stretch around one kilometre in length and 200 to 300 metres in width and wildlife has already begun reaching the newly exposed land.
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wildlife → stretch → land
Akimzhanov says he personally spotted a wild boar on one of the islands, while wolves also make their way there across the ice.
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wolves → say → ice
The newly emerged islands usually do not get names, he says.
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he → emerge → names
The Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, which began work in September 2025 after being established on the instructions of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, says more areas of land are likely to emerge.
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areas → begin → land
However, not all of them will become permanent islands.
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all → become → them
“The future of each newly exposed area depends on the seabed topography, waves, wind-driven changes in water levels and the subsequent dynamics of the Caspian Sea level,” the institute says.
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institute → expose → level
The emergence of new islands is one of the most visible signs of a much broader transformation: the Caspian Sea is retreating.
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Sea → retreat → transformation
The Caspian Sea is retreating
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Sea → retreat → ?
It is bordered by five countries: Kazakhstan, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkmenistan.
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It → border → countries
More than 80 per cent of its river inflow comes from Russia’s Volga River.
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cent → come → River
Dr. Sifan Koriche, a hydroclimate scientist at the University of Alabama who has published several studies on the Caspian Sea, explains its water balance in simple terms.
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who → publish → terms
The incoming water is from river inflow and precipitation, while the outgoing water is only through evaporation,” he says.
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he → say → evaporation
According to instrumental observations, the Caspian Sea level in the Kazakh sector fell from -26.82 metres in 1996 to -29.27 metres in 2025.
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level → accord → 2025
This represents a decline of 2.45 metres over the past three decades, or an average of around 8–9 centimetres per year.
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This → represent → year
The decline has continued.
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decline → continue → ?
According to the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, the average sea level at the Kulaly Island monitoring station stood at -29.42 metres as of July 2026, the lowest level recorded during the entire study period.
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level → accord → period
The north-eastern Caspian, including the coast of Kazakhstan's Atyrau region, is particularly vulnerable to falling water levels.
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Caspian → include → levels
With an average depth of around six metres and a very gentle seabed slope, even a relatively small drop in water level can cause the shoreline to retreat over long distances.
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shoreline → cause → distances
According to the Kazakh Research Institute of the Caspian Sea, between 2000 and 2025, the area covered by water in the studied part of the north-eastern Caspian decreased by around 16,384 square kilometres.
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area → accord → kilometres
Satellite images analysed by the institute also show how the coastline has changed in recent years.
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coastline → analyse → years
Between 2021 and 2026, falling water levels gradually exposed new areas of seabed near Kulaly Island and the Tyuleniy Archipelago.
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levels → fall → Island
The Caspian has historically experienced periods of both falling and rising water levels.
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Caspian → experience → levels
From the 1930s to 1977, its level dropped by around three metres.
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level → drop → metres
Over the following two decades, it rose again by about 2.5 metres, before beginning another period of decline.
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it → follow → decline
But while fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level are not new, scientists say climate change and human activity are now affecting its water balance.
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change → say → balance
Previous research has linked the decline in recent decades mainly to increased evaporation from the Caspian Sea as regional temperatures have risen.
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temperatures → link → Sea
A decrease in precipitation has also contributed, but to a smaller degree.
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decrease → contribute → degree
Human activity also affects how much water reaches the Caspian.
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water → affect → Caspian
Dams regulate the rivers flowing into the sea, while water is extracted across the basin for irrigation and other uses.
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water → regulate → irrigation
The way reservoirs are managed can also affect river flows reaching the sea.
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reservoirs → manage → sea
…and 32 more, not listed.
The Aporia
