- As Labor braces for a potentially disastrous result in Victoria, INSIDE MAIL reveals how factions and powerbrokers across NSW, Queensland and beyond are already gaming out a future without the PM
Published: | Updated:
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factions → brace → PM
Alarm bells are ringing inside Labor, with growing fears that the Albanese government is dragging state branches 'off a cliff'.
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government → ring → cliff
Inside Mail understands figures from several Labor factions have already begun quietly canvassing leadership scenarios should the party suffer a catastrophic defeat at Victoria's November 28 election.
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party → understand → election
Sources say influential players from Queensland Labor, the NSW Right and sections of the Victorian Left, particularly those aligned with former premiers Daniel Andrews and Jacinta Allan, have held informal discussions about succession options if a Victorian wipeout triggers a broader crisis of confidence in Anthony Albanese's leadership.
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wipeout → say → leadership
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edition → read → subscribers
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Many accuse Albanese of doing little to stop the rise of One Nation, which they say has turned voters against Labor.
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they → read → Labor
Many believe a likely second interest rate rise before polling day would be politically devastating, with voters expected to vent their anger at the federal government and further punish a Victorian Labor branch already in freefall.
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voters → believe → freefall
The concern comes as Labor's position in Victoria continues to deteriorate.
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position → come → Victoria
Ben Carroll has so far failed to halt the party's polling slide since replacing Allan earlier this year.
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Carroll → fail → Allan
A Freshwater poll released on Monday showed Labor's primary vote falling another point since August to 24 per cent, leaving it five points behind the Coalition on 29 per cent.
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vote → release → cent
Labor and Ben Carroll (right) are widely expected to lose the upcoming election in Victoria
One Nation remained steady on 22 per cent, while the Greens held firm on 14 per cent.
Labor is bleeding support across both metropolitan and regional Victoria, fuelling concerns that Opposition Leader Jess Wilson could emerge as one of the biggest beneficiaries of One Nation preference flows in key three-cornered contests.
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Wilson → expect → contests
Senior party figures privately acknowledge that Wilson's personal popularity, slick campaigning and ability to unite the most broken Liberal division have helped shield the Victorian Coalition from the electoral woes plaguing its federal counterparts.
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popularity → acknowledge → counterparts
Many now fear those preference flows could turn a difficult election into an electoral bloodbath, delivering the Victorian branch one of its worst defeats in decades.
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flows → fear → decades
Some figures in Victoria also view any leadership change as an act of 'revenge' against both Carroll and Albanese, believing the Prime Minister 'did nothing' to protect Allan from being rolled and effectively stood by as her leadership unravelled.
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leadership → view → Allan
Among Allan loyalists, there remains lingering resentment towards Canberra, with some arguing Albanese failed to intervene at a critical moment and allowed the factional numbers to run unchecked, paving the way for Carroll's ascent.
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numbers → remain → ascent
But the anxiety extends well beyond Victoria.
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anxiety → extend → Victoria
In NSW, Labor powerbrokers are closely tracking One Nation's rise amid growing fears the party could devastate several traditionally safe Labor seats across the Hunter region, where it has concentrated significant campaign resources.
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it → track → resources
Chris Minns (right) has publicly distanced himself from Albanese ahead of the NSW election
The threat has prompted Premier Chris Minns to dramatically ramp up his presence in the area.
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threat → distance → area
Minns has visited the Hunter six times since April, compared with just three visits during the 2023 election campaign.
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Minns → visit → campaign
Senior ministers, including Police and Hunter Minister Yasmin Catley, have also intensified their campaigning in the area, as Labor scrambles to shore up support in what was once considered an untouchable heartland.
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what → include → support
Party insiders fear as many as 10 seats could be vulnerable, including Camden, Maitland, Wallsend, Cessnock, Penrith, Port Stephens, Wyong and Catley's own seat of Swansea.
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seats → fear → Swansea
One MP in a seat viewed as at risk told Inside Mail they wished Albanese would 'just stay away'.
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Albanese → view → Mail
Several of those electorates have rarely, if ever, required serious defensive campaigning, forcing Labor to divert resources into areas once regarded as safely beyond the reach of political opponents.
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Several → require → opponents
The party is simultaneously grappling with mounting pressure across Western Sydney, raising concerns campaign resources are being stretched thin across multiple fronts.
The heightened activity has coincided with an increasingly visible divergence between Minns and the Albanese government.
In recent months, the NSW Premier has publicly broken ranks with Canberra on issues including migration, tobacco excise and government spending, moves many within Labor interpret as an effort to insulate his government from the federal party's declining political fortunes.
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many → grapple → fortunes
Queensland Labor fear that Albanese has 'written off' a number of seats in the state in 2028
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Albanese → fear → 2028
Meanwhile, other Labor figures privately concede Albanese has become a significant drag on the party's brand in Queensland, compounding the challenges facing Opposition Leader Steven Miles.
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Albanese → concede → Miles
After less than two years in opposition, the Queensland branch has struggled to land meaningful blows on David Crisafulli's LNP government despite a string of controversies and policy headaches surrounding child safety, youth crime and preparations for the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.
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branch → struggle → Olympics
Compounding the problem is Labor's lack of opposition experience.
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lack → compound → experience
Not a single current Queensland Labor MP has previously served on the opposition benches, with all of the party's experienced parliamentarians entering the legislature after Labor returned to power in 2015 following its crushing defeat under Campbell Newman in 2012.
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Labor → serve → 2012
Senior figures also complain the state party is operating with fewer resources than in previous years, with a number of highly regarded staffers departing for Canberra and federal political roles, hollowing out the talent pool available to Miles.
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number → complain → Miles
The performance of several Queensland-based federal ministers has also become a source of frustration within Labor ranks, with Sports and Communications Minister Anika Wells attracting particular criticism from some party figures.
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Wells → base → figures
Others have privately vented about the party's online presence, with one insider singling out Queensland MP Kara Cook as 'suspect number one' for a stream of poorly received TikTok videos they argue have reinforced perceptions Labor is out of touch with voters.
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Labor → vent → voters
Some fear Albanese is effectively prepared to sacrifice a number of Queensland seats in exchange for retaining a federal majority, noting Labor could lose up to 18 MPs and still form government.
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Labor → fear → government
Labor figures have blamed Anthony Albanese for the rise of Pauline Hanson in state politics
Among the electorates causing concern are Bonner, Petrie and Forde, all seats Labor wrested from the LNP at the last federal election.
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Labor → blame → election
Other seats deemed 'written off' by the party unless polling turns around include Hughes and Hunter in NSW, as well as Menzies, Bendigo and Deakin in Victoria.
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polling → deem → Victoria
Others remain furious about what they describe as Albanese's tight control over caucus, arguing it has forced the party to adopt unpopular positions, which has been exacerbated since the government's May budget.
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which → remain → budget
Within the Queensland Right, some also blame the Prime Minister for 'selling Jim Chalmers down the river' by forcing the Treasurer to carry the political burden of a poorly received budget.
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some → blame → budget
They argue One Nation successfully capitalised on the backlash, using its 'Fire the Liar' campaign to raise millions of dollars while simultaneously driving a surge in memberships and volunteer recruitment.
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Nation → argue → memberships
Labor strategists have also become increasingly wary of One Nation's grassroots operation.
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strategists → become → operation
One Nation supporters on the ground in states such as Victoria have been described by opponents as 'zealous', with activists door-knocking, leaflet dropping and campaigning in numbers both Labor and the Coalition had previously underestimated.
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Labor → describe → numbers
…and 6 more, not listed.
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