live
Markets live updates: Wall Street slips as bond yields rise, ASX treading water, Baltha creditors to meet
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creditors → slip → water
Wall Street has slipped after stronger-than-expected jobs growth sent bond yields higher and shortened the odds of the Fed hiking rates this month.
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Fed → slip → rates
Futures traders on the ASX have struggled to make sense of the impact, with the market poised to open flat this morning, and a meeting of Baltha creditors today could decide the fate of the construction firm that has collapsed, owing $3.4 billion.
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that → struggle → billion
Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.
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blog → intend → advice
Choose what information you see below by using filters
Key Event
Oil higher in early trade
The key global oil price benchmarks have risen in early trade in response to another round of tit-for-tat attacks in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
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benchmarks → choose → weekend
At 8:50am AEST:
- Brent crude futures: +0.5% to $US96.78/barrel
- West Texas Intermediate crude futures: +0.7% to $US92.16/barrel
Trump leans on Fed to cut rates
While we've been posting this morning about how the stronger-than-expected US jobs figures were putting pressure on the Fed to raise rates, certainly a proposition supported by bond traders, not everyone agrees.
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everyone → lean → traders
US President Donald Trump was a noted dissenting voice in a Truth Social post, arguing that the data points to a rate cut.
While it's regarded as the first time Mr Trump has publicly leaned on his freshly minted Federal Reserve chair, Kevin Warsh, the president renewed his calls for lower interest rates, saying the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) should "get smart" and "be patriots for a change".
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FOMC → dissent → change
He then suggested, in a bit of a leap of logic, that if rates weren't cut, he'd order a halt to trading with any country running a surplus with the US, a course of action that was even "better than tariffs".
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that → suggest → tariffs
Hard to imagine anything being better than tariffs, but there you are.
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you → imagine → tariffs
Here's the president's post (caps and grammar are his own):
"Great jobs number just announced, breaking all estimates (except mine!) by double and triple — And you haven't seen anything yet!
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you → announce → anything
EMPLOYERS ADDED 162,000 JOB IN AUGUST.
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EMPLOYERS → add → AUGUST
Lower the interest rates because the U.S.A. is a much stronger credit than it was just a short time ago!
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it → lower → rates
A STRONG COUNTRY MEANS A LOWER INTEREST RATE — IT'S A BETTER CREDIT…Very simple!
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IT → mean → RATE
We should have the LOWEST RATE of any country in the World, like "the old days."
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We → have → days
Without the United States agreeing to allow them their big surpluses, and we could stop that immediately, they would no longer be considered financially ELITE!
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they → agree → that
LOWER THE RATE OR I'LL STOP TRADING WITH COUNTRIES WITH WHICH WE HAVE A DEFICIT, which the U.S. Supreme Court, in its ridiculous and very costly Tariff decision, strongly acknowledged "the President" has an absolute right to do.
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President → lower → right
The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart — BE PATRIOTS for a change.
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Board → get → change
High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won't allow that to happen!"
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that → put → disadvantage
Mr Trump later told reporters that the (Fed Funds) rate should be "one percent or half a percent" that he has a right to put tariffs on countries like Switzerland, that the US has effectively taken over Iran and that there are no mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
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US → tell → Hormuz
Aussie dollar to hold near 72 US cents this week: CBA
The Aussie dollar is expected to stay at about 72 US cents this week, according to CBA's FX strategy team.
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dollar → hold → team
In a morning note, CBA's senior currency strategist Christina Clifton said the Australian/US cross rate should remain steady, but a stronger-than-expected US core CPI reading will push AUD/USD back down to near 0.7150 later in the week.
"
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reading → say → week
AUD/USD touched the highest since May last week on broad-based USD weakness.
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USD → touch → weakness
AUD/USD can remain near 0.7200 for most of this week, especially if Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser signal the need for another interest rate hike after the stronger-than-expected July CPI (Tuesday)," Ms Clifton said.
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Clifton → remain → CPI
"However, we expect AUD/USD to ease back to near 0.7150 later in the week if we are right about our above-consensus call for the US core CPI.
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we → expect → CPI
"
If you're planning to travel (or export anything) this week, here are some of the CBA's other calls:
- AUD/EUR will set a new year-to-date high above 0.6207 if RBA officials sound hawkish or the ECB is less hawkish than expected.
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ECB → plan → 0.6207
- AUD/GBP will extend its recent uptrend on hawkish RBA remarks.
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GBP → extend → remarks
- AUD/NZD could lift to a new year-to-date high above 1.2288 if RBA officials deliver hawkish comments this week.
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officials → lift → comments
- AUD/JPY will trade around its 50-day moving average of 112.9 this week.
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JPY → trade → 112.9
Key Event
OPEC+ keeps oil output policy unchanged for October
OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October at its Sunday meeting.
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OPEC+ → keep → meeting
The producer group said in a statement this morning that it needs to agree on new quotas before deciding on its next output steps.
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it → say → steps
The meeting of seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting OPEC+'s influence over prices and market share.
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war → come → prices
In August, OPEC+ agreed to a production boost for September, completing a phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023.
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OPEC+ → agree → 2023
Despite the agreed production increases, the group, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, still produces far below its targets because of the war.
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group → agree → war
"OPEC+ currently has very limited power over the physical oil market," Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy said.
"
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Leon → have → Energy
The group can change production targets on paper, but it cannot guarantee that those barrels will be produced or actually reach the market.
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barrels → change → market
The focus now shifts away from monthly production adjustments and towards the much more consequential debate over 2027."
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focus → shift → 2027
Reuters
This week: RBA speakers, US inflation, EU interest rates
Australia:
Mon: Job ads (Aug)
Tue: Consumer sentiment (Sep), RBA commentary from deputy governor Andrew Hauser and asst gov (economics) Sarah Hunter
Thu: Inflation expectations (Sep)
International:
Mon: EU — GDP (Q2)
US — Labor Day holiday (markets closed)
Tue: JP — GDP (Q2)
CN — Trade balance (Aug)
US — Small business optimism
Wed:
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markets → close → Hauser
Sentiment bounced (but still remained pessimistic in August), largely thanks to mortgagors feeling a rate rise was more remote.
Stronger-than-expected GDP data and a return of chatter about a rate hike may test that mood.
The RBA top brass will be out and about on Tuesday, dealing with that chatter.
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brass → bounce → chatter
OHS issues at the ABC sadly prevent open fires in the studio, so deputy governor Andrew Hauser will have to make do with just a normal chat with 7.30 host Sarah Ferguson; hopefully it won't be too chilly.
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it → prevent → Ferguson
Looking overseas, the ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 bps (Thursday) with both headline and core inflation running consistently above the target.
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inflation → look → target
…and 29 more, not listed.