"They're ruining baseball."
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They → ruin → baseball
"They've built a superteam."
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They → build → superteam
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uncertain
page → contain → partners
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uncertain
News → sign → wager
This content was created by a team that works independently from the FOX newsroom.
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that → create → newsroom
"Too many fans and teams have no hope of their team reaching or winning the World Series."
"Lock 'em out."
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team → have → 'em
With some varying degree of consistency, all of these statements have become oft-repeated campaign phrases from either Major League Baseball itself or many of the league's fans.
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all → vary → fans
Mostly as a result of the Los Angeles Dodgers winning back-to-back World Series titles and continuing to add expensive players to their roster, despite the success.
asserted
Dodgers → win → success
For much of the 2026 season, off-field discussion and PR efforts centered on the league's owners demanding a salary cap in upcoming labor negotiations, as a direct result of the Dodgers' spending.
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owners → center → spending
Curiously, few of these proponents ever mention the New York Mets and their spending.
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few → mention → Mets
Interestingly, the Mets missing the postseason for two consecutive seasons despite a top-2 payroll never seems to come up.
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Mets → miss → payroll
Yes, the Dodgers have won the World Series in two straight years.
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Dodgers → win → years
And yes, there's still every opportunity for them to win a third title in 2026.
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them → be → 2026
Sunday night's game two of the NLDS against the Atlanta Braves showed why there's no such thing as a foregone conclusion in baseball.
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game → show → baseball
Why it's not possible to "ruin" the most unpredictable sport in the country.
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it → ruin → country
And why assembling even the best roster guarantees nothing.
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assembling → assemble → nothing
The Dodgers won game one in mostly ho-hum fashion, with Tarik Skubal going six strong innings and Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernandez, and Max Muncy hitting home runs to win 5-3.
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Tucker → win → runs
When the Braves announced that superstar starter Chris Sale would be held back for game three, the widespread expectation was that the Dodgers had a tremendous advantage for game two.
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Dodgers → announce → game
Blake Snell, a two-time NL Cy Young Award winner, was set up to start for LA.
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Snell → set → LA
They countered with little-used reliever Ray Kerr.
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They → counter → Kerr
Kerr didn't pitch in the majors in 2025, had a 5.64 ERA in 2024, and has such poor "stuff" that he struck out just 11 hitters in 18.1 innings in the regular season.
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he → pitch → season
The Dodgers missed every opportunity against the Atlanta bullpen, made several uncharacteristic mistakes, and lost game two 3-2 to even the series at one apiece.
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Dodgers → miss → one
Kerr went 3.1 scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies in a decisive game three of the wild card series.
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Kerr → go → series
He followed that up by going 2.2 scoreless innings against the Dodgers in a pivotal Game 2 of the NLDS.
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He → follow → NLDS
Because of course he did.
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he → do → course
Outsider observers might point to Kerr's 1.47 ERA in his regular season sample as evidence that his postseason performance is justified.
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performance → point → evidence
Except the underlying stats show how fortunate he was to have those results.
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he → underlie → results
Kerr's BABIP allowed, or batting average on balls in play, was .143 in the regular season.
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BABIP → allow → season
In 2024, his BABIP allowed was .403, demonstrating that there's no secret formula Kerr is using to over-perform.
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Kerr → allow → 2024
The league's average left on base percentage is around 75%, essentially, when baserunners reach against a pitcher, league average is that 75% of those runners won't score.
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% → leave → runners
Put simply, that's absurdly "lucky" and will regress to the mean over a broader sample.
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that → put → sample
But that highlights the problem with trying to "predict" postseason baseball: over a small sample size, like a single series, or even a few series, a pitcher like Ray Kerr can throw six shutout innings against two of the best lineups in baseball.
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pitcher → highlight → baseball
Sure enough, thus far in October, Kerr's BABIP allowed is .200 and his LOB% is 100%.
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LOB% → allow → October
Over an entire season, those numbers will not continue.
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numbers → continue → season
The gaps between players in baseball are so small that on any given day, Ray Kerr can outpitch Blake Snell, who was mostly ineffective, over a few inning sample.
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who → give → sample
Or Didier Fuentes, a good but inexperienced relief pitcher, can go 3.2 innings and allow just one run while retiring nine straight Dodger hitters.
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Fuentes → go → hitters
It's one game, though, you might be thinking.
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you → think → ?
And of course that's right; LA is still favored, slightly, to win the series.
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LA → favor → series
But Atlanta can now start Chris Sale on regular rest in game three, at home, not long after he threw a complete-game shutout against the Dodgers at Truist Park with 11 strikeouts and just five baserunners allowed.
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he → start → strikeouts
It's a new game, it's the playoffs, each start is independent of the last, but even with Yoshinobu Yamamoto starting for Los Angeles, the Braves likely have the advantage to win game three.
asserted
Braves → start → game
…and 25 more, not listed.
The Aporia
