Congress can extend a deadline, pass a continuing resolution, create a temporary fix, or simply decide that the hardest questions will be easier to answer next year.
asserted
questions → extend → fix
I have spent much of my career around the federal budget and appropriations process, and I have seen how useful those tools can be.
asserted
tools → spend → budget
But eventually, time runs out.
asserted
time → run → ?
That is the larger question raised by the House Budget Committee’s recent field hearing on America’s fiscal future.
asserted
That → raise → future
Former Sen. Rob Portman, who also served as OMB director, argued that Congress may need a bipartisan fiscal commission that would put difficult fiscal choices before lawmakers and force a vote.
uncertain
that → serve → vote
That panel had bipartisan membership and a deficit-reduction target.
asserted
panel → have → membership
It still ended in a stalemate.
asserted
It → end → stalemate
Worse, the math has only gotten harder.
asserted
math → get → ?
The Congressional Budget Office projects debt held by the public will rise from 101% of gross domestic product this year to 120% by 2036.
asserted
debt → project → 2036
Net interest costs are projected to grow from about $1 trillion this year to $2.1 trillion a decade from now.
asserted
costs → project → trillion
Congress can pass a continuing resolution.
asserted
Congress → pass → resolution
It cannot CR its way out of compound interest.
asserted
It → cr → interest
There are other clocks running as well.
asserted
clocks → be → ?
Social Security’s retirement trust fund is projected to exhaust its reserves in 2032.
asserted
fund → project → 2032
Congress will act at some point.
asserted
Congress → act → point
The question is whether it acts while there is still room to maneuver or waits until a crisis dictates the terms.
asserted
crisis → act → terms
If Congress creates a fiscal commission, it should learn from past failures.
asserted
it → create → failures
A serious commission needs bipartisan ownership, not simply bipartisan membership.
asserted
commission → need → ownership
The White House and congressional leaders from both parties need to buy into the process from the beginning.
asserted
House → need → beginning
Neither side can dictate the outcome or wall off the difficult questions.
asserted
side → dictate → questions
Just as important, the commission should make its case to the American people along the way rather than unveil a painful package at the end.
asserted
commission → make → end
If a meaningful bipartisan majority reaches agreement, Congress should have to vote.
asserted
Congress → reach → agreement
Otherwise, we risk producing another report that sits on a shelf.
asserted
that → risk → shelf
No procedural mechanism can manufacture political courage.
asserted
mechanism → manufacture → courage
But history gives us reason for optimism.
asserted
history → give → optimism
In 1983, with Social Security nearing a financing crisis, President Ronald Reagan, House Speaker Tip O’Neill, and lawmakers from both parties reached an agreement built on the work of a bipartisan commission.
asserted
Reagan → near → commission
Fourteen years later, President Bill Clinton and a Republican-controlled Congress enacted a bipartisan balanced-budget agreement.
asserted
Clinton → control → agreement
Both occurred during divided government.
asserted
Both → occur → government
That may run against conventional Washington wisdom.
uncertain
That → run → wisdom
But Washington has sometimes appealed to its better angels when power is divided.
asserted
power → appeal → angels
When neither party can simply impose its will, both must negotiate and both must own the outcome.
asserted
both → impose → outcome
Shared power can mean shared responsibility and, more importantly, shared political risk.
asserted
power → mean → responsibility
If voters produce a divided government again after November, that will not solve the fiscal problem.
asserted
that → produce → problem
But it could create an opening.
uncertain
it → create → opening
Republicans and Democrats remain far apart on taxes, spending, entitlements, and the size and role of government.
asserted
Republicans → remain → government
Any durable agreement will require both sides to accept provisions they would not choose on their own.
asserted
they → require → own
It is the nature of governing in a divided country.
asserted
It → govern → country
The question is whether Washington can make difficult choices while there are still choices to be made.
asserted
Washington → make → choices
A better-designed fiscal commission, shared political responsibility, and a willingness by both parties to accept something less than total victory could give Congress a chance to act before the cliff is directly ahead.
uncertain
cliff → design → chance
The math will eventually force action.
asserted
math → force → action
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
