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Financial experts predict the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will maintain its tight monetary policy despite missing its FY27 inflation target due to high oil prices and cost-push pressures. In September, consumer price index-based inflation reached 10.3%, exceeding the SBP's target range of 5-7%. The central bank is expected to keep interest rates elevated at 11.5% or potentially raise them further, arguing that this supports sustainable economic growth while other experts contend that such measures hurt domestic industries and exacerbate poverty.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-04,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
In KARACHI, financial experts predict the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) will likely not meet its FY27 mid-term inflation target of 5-7%, given that consumer price index-based inflation reached 10.3% in September. This high inflation rate is straining industries and businesses across Pakistan, with cost-push pressures exacerbating the situation. Despite this, the SBP is expected to keep interest rates elevated at its current rate, which was recently adjusted by a publisher correction of 0.2%, rather than lowering them to stimulate economic activity. Economic analyst Amir Aziz notes that without a comprehensive policy addressing inflated energy prices and overall double-digit inflation, there can be no significant improvement in the economy, where 44% of Pakistanis live below the poverty line.
Written for “Monetary Policy Continues” on 2026-10-05,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
As the world continues to grapple with uncertain oil prices, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is unlikely to meet its FY27 mid-term inflation target of 5-7 per cent, financial experts and analysts said.
asserted
experts → continue → cent
Consumer Price Index-based inflation of 10.3 per cent in September clearly indicates that industry, businesses, and the general public will bear the brunt of these cost-push inflationary pressures.
asserted
industry → base → pressures
Experts believe the central bank will not lower interest rates to stimulate economic activity.
asserted
bank → believe → activity
Instead, it will maintain a tight monetary stance to support ‘sustainable’ growth.
asserted
it → maintain → growth
For the past four years, the government and the SBP have been satisfied with low but sustainable growth of around 3 to 3.7 per cent—a level that creates no jobs and does not address the severe problem of 44 per cent of Pakistanis living in poverty.
asserted
that → satisfy → poverty
“There is no domestic or foreign investment, and existing industries are struggling to survive.
asserted
industries → be → ?
The situation would not change unless a comprehensive economic policy is introduced to support domestic investment, which is being undermined by inflated energy prices and overall double-digit inflation,” said Amir Aziz, a manufacturer and exporter of textile made-ups.
asserted
Aziz → change → ups
Bangladesh is in a much better position, as energy costs about 7 to 8 cents per unit, compared with 14 to 16 cents in Pakistan.
asserted
energy → cost → Pakistan
This gives Bangladesh an advantage over Pakistani products,” said Mr Mohammad Hasham, who recently returned home after serving the Bangladesh textile industry for 25 years as the head of some of its largest textile units.
asserted
who → give → units
He said double-digit inflation is killing both the industry and investors, and economic activity is slowing, causing pain for the general public.
asserted
activity → say → public
Tresmark Chief Executive Faisal Mamsa said that Pakistan’s authorities reportedly expect inflation to average around 7.5pc if oil returns towards $80, and around 8.2pc if it remains near $100 per barrel.
“They also expect inflation to moderate after December and argue that the current 11.5pc policy rate remains appropriate,” he said.
uncertain
he → say → December
However, many experts disagree that the SBP policy rate will remain unchanged at 11.5pc despite double-digit inflation.
asserted
rate → disagree → inflation
At the same time, the government raised cut-off yields by up to 75 basis points, with the highest at 12.49pc for the one-year tenor at Wednesday’s T-bill auction.
asserted
government → raise → auction
The hike in returns on risk-free government papers reflected a possible rise in the SBP policy rate at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Oct 26.
asserted
hike → reflect → Oct
Mr Mamsa said the stable rupee helps contain imported inflation.
asserted
rupee → say → inflation
Higher domestic fuel prices allow demand and imports to adjust.
asserted
demand → allow → ?
“The IMF, meanwhile, continues to emphasise a more market-based exchange rate.
asserted
IMF → continue → rate
The authorities are reluctant to reopen the imported inflation Pandora’s Box,” he said, adding that a market-based exchange rate parity does not automatically mean a weaker rupee.
asserted
parity → reopen → rupee
“If remittances remain strong, reserves continue improving, the current account stays manageable, and the dollar demand remains contained, price discovery can still produce a stable currency,” he said.
asserted
he → remain → currency
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