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For many years, Britain paid less to borrow money than most other major countries.
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Britain → see → countries
Now we pay more.
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we → pay → more
This is because while international investors once saw the UK as a comparatively safe bet, they no longer do.
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they → see → bet
The bond markets have a colourful expression for the higher interest rates they demand when lending to governments they consider imprudent: they call it the 'moron premium'.
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they → have → it
But it does say something about the way Labour have managed our finances, and the economy more widely.
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Labour → say → finances
Ministers like to remind us of the interest rate spike after the Liz Truss mini-Budget of 2022, but as Burnham addressed Parliament for the first time as Prime Minister last Wednesday, our long-term borrowing costs rose to their highest level for nearly three decades.
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costs → like → decades
More worrying still is that it's not just the fundamentals of our economy that are shaky – the fact that we tax, spend, borrow and regulate too much, making it more expensive to employ people, produce things, build things, do business and create the wealth that pays for our public services.
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that → tax → services
So far, things are going well for the Prime Minister Andy Burnham, writes Lord Ashcroft
The latest polling by Lord Ashcroft shows Labour in the lead, followed by the Tories and Reform
It's that we are going in the wrong direction – and the signs are that rather than change course, Burnham seems to want to accelerate.
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Burnham → go → course
So far, things are going well for the PM.
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things → go → PM
People like him, think he seems normal and approachable, and credit him with more grit and common sense than his predecessor.
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he → think → predecessor
My survey finds him comfortably ahead of his rivals as the best available Prime Minister, and he has single-handedly revived Labour's poll standing as more of its disgruntled 2024 voters say they could see themselves backing the party again next time.
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themselves → find → party
Burnham's early initiatives on energy bills and bus fares might seem small fry ('clickbaity-type politics', as one focus group participant said), and cynics might wonder if he is trying to distract people's attention from bigger issues or lower their expectations about what governments can do about them.
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governments → seem → them
But it is surely smarter to ensure people's early memories are of small attempts to help them out than, say, scrap the winter fuel allowance (a blunder whose effects Keir Starmer never really shook off).
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Starmer → ensure → effects
But there is a sense that a reckoning is coming.
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reckoning → be → ?
Like the markets, the voters know it can't go on like this.
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it → know → this
'I think the time to judge is when something happens and he has to make critical decisions,' as someone else in my groups put it.
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someone → think → it
'That's when we'll be able to see whether he swims or sinks.'
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he → see → ?
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage addresses delegates during day two of the party's conference in Birmingham on September 5
Barring unforeseen dramas (of which there could be any number by teatime on Tuesday, let alone the next two months), one of the first of those will be the Budget on October 28.
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one → address → October
Already, I hear voters talking about this as the event that will really tell them what the Burnham era will be all about.
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era → hear → what
But many think they already know what to expect.
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they → think → what
My poll found a majority saying that Labour shouldn't put taxes up, but they will.
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they → find → taxes
Further hikes will clash against any claim to working people that Burnham is on their side – the most precarious of his positive attributes in my poll.
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Burnham → clash → poll
At the same time, and to be fair to the Government, voters don't always make these things easy.
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things → make → Government
Those on the Right complain about the ballooning benefits bill, and with good reason.
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Those → complain → reason
But one of the most expensive state commitments is the pension triple lock, which I found a majority want to keep – Conservative and Reform supporters more than most, and pensioners (the group most likely to turn out and vote) by a 68-point margin.
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majority → find → margin
That illustrates just how hard it is for ministers to hold spending down – especially leaders such as Burnham who, as I find many voters shrewdly intuit, has an innate need to be liked.
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voters → illustrate → need
On the other side of the fence, a reinvigorated government has once again raised the question of how to 'unite the Right', despite Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage ruling out any kind of pact.
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Badenoch → raise → pact
I found a Conservative-Reform alliance would poll less than the sum of the two parties separately, because fewer than half of Tories and only a bare majority of Reform supporters would back it (indeed Reform-leaning voters said they would be more open to considering Restore Britain than the Conservatives).
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they → find → Conservatives
This means the parties will have to slug it out the old-fashioned way.
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parties → mean → it
Tory Leader Kemi Badenoch MP responding to Andy Burnham during his first appearance in the House of Commons
I found that while Reform are seen as stronger and more united than the Conservatives (despite some vigorous internal spats over the summer), the Tories are regarded as more reasonable, responsible and credible.
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Tories → respond → summer
But while the two words most often chosen to describe Badenoch were 'sensible' and 'competent', those for her party were 'out of touch'.
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those → choose → touch
'Kemi is speaking well at the moment,' said another focus group member.
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member → speak → moment
They had a chance and they blew it.'
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they → have → it
Such a sentiment will take time to shift.
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sentiment → take → time
For Reform to expand their support, meanwhile, they will need to dispel the lingering idea that they are too harsh or extreme, demonstrate credible policies on issues beyond their familiar agenda, and present a responsible team ready for government.
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they → expand → government
The advent of a new PM has made the case for getting rid of Labour seem less immediate.
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case → make → Labour
It has also made it harder for the opposition to get a hearing.
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opposition → make → hearing
But people have consolidated, if only for the time being, behind a leader, not a party; there has been no resolution to the things that drove their discontent – immigration, tax and the cost of living, to name but three.
The Burnham honeymoon will end, and when it does, his rivals must be ready.
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rivals → consolidate → living
Successful opposition requires a tricky combination of urgency and patience.
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opposition → require → urgency
