Chinese President Xi Jinping and economist Daron Acemoglu may have differing views on liberal democracy, but they share a common perspective on China's future: introducing cutting-edge technology could counteract the negative effects of population decline. According to official figures released in January, China's population fell by 3.39 million last year to just over 1.4 billion, with births dropping by 17% to 7.92 million, a record low. Economists such as Joeri Schasfoort are challenging the conventional wisdom that a declining population will necessarily lead to economic stagnation, suggesting instead that it may prompt companies to innovate and boost productivity. The article explores this counterintuitive idea, which is gaining traction among some economists and social scientists.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-06,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
China's population has declined for four consecutive years, with 3.39 million fewer people in 2022 than in 2021, bringing the total population to just over 1.4 billion. The birth rate also reached a record low of 7.92 million births, a drop of 17% from the previous year, since records began in 1949. As a result, 323 million Chinese people, about one-quarter of the population, are now over 60 years old. Economists like Daron Acemoglu, a co-recipient of the 2024 Nobel Prize in economics, and others suggest that introducing cutting-edge technology could help maintain economic growth despite this decline, but popular opinion holds that China's rapid aging will lead to significant economic problems.
Written for “China's Shrinking Population” on 2026-09-07,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
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Leaning score +0.35 for article 5383 (medium confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-09-06
As a strong advocate of the Western model of liberal democracy, Acemoglu,
co-recipient of the 2024 Nobel Prize in economics, may be considered the ideological opposite of the Chinese president.
uncertain
Acemoglu → consider → president
But on a crucial point about China’s future, the two may, strangely, be on the same page: an across-the-board introduction of cutting-edge technology may enhance productivity and maintain economic growth.
uncertain
introduction → enhance → growth
It may counteract the negative impact of drastic population decline in the decades ahead.
uncertain
It → counteract → decades
While that may be an emerging consensus among economists and other social scientists, it still runs counter to the popular narrative that a rapidly greying China is doomed.
uncertain
China → emerge → narrative
The official figures released in January, for example, set off alarmism.
asserted
figures → release → alarmism
China’s population fell by 3.39 million last year to just over 1.4 billion – a fourth consecutive decline and the
steepest so far.
asserted
population → fall → billion
Births dropped by 17 per cent to 7.92 million, the lowest since records began in 1949.
asserted
records → drop → 1949
The reaction was swift and familiar: China will grow old before it grows rich, its workforce will hollow out, its pension system will buckle, its ascent will end.
asserted
ascent → grow → ?
Some concerns are warranted.
asserted
concerns → warrant → ?
If 2.1 children per woman is the population replacement rate, then those
countries with the lowest birth rates – China at 0.63, Japan at 0.6, and South Korea at 0.46 – are projected by 2050 to experience population declines of 20-30 per cent relative to 2023; their share of the population aged 65 and over to reach 30-40 per cent; and older workers (aged 45 and over) to comprise 60 per cent of the labour force.
asserted
workers → project → force
But that’s not the whole story.
asserted
that → ’ → ?
In fact, much of it is missing, and the alarm has outrun the analysis.
asserted
alarm → miss → analysis
“What if the historical evidence tells us that collapsing birth rates, paradoxically, are good for the economy,” economist Joeri Schasfoort asks in his YouTube channel, “because they force companies to innovate?”
asserted
they → tell → companies
