This week Donald Trump summoned reporters to the Oval Office to announce that a $US15 billion ($22 billion) steel plant would be built in the midwestern state of Iowa.
asserted
plant → summon → Iowa
Among those standing around him was Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate candidate for Iowa, who is locked in a toss-up race for the seat occupied by a retiring Republican.
asserted
who → stand → Republican
It is a seat Republicans must hold if they are to cling on to control of the US Senate at the midterm elections in four weeks, which are increasingly shaping as a bloodbath for the GOP.
asserted
which → hold → GOP
Days earlier Hinson had called for “an immediate and successful end to the war in Iran” and urgent relief for families, farmers, seniors and small businesses struggling with the cost of petrol, diesel and everyday goods.
“I know Iowans are frustrated and I am frustrated,” she said.
asserted
she → call → petrol
They were sick of people in Washington playing games, she added.
asserted
she → play → games
They have spent two years flattering a president whose approval rating fell to a record low of 32 per cent last week, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, and who has taken the country into an expensive, unending conflict with Iran after promising “no new foreign wars”.
uncertain
who → spend → wars
The poll showed how Americans have soured on Trump on every key issue since he took office for a second term in January 2025.
asserted
he → show → January
On immigration his net approval fell from +7 to -19.
asserted
approval → fall → -19
On foreign policy it dropped from +2 to -32.
asserted
it → drop → -32
And on the issue Americans say will most determine how they vote on November 3 – the cost of living – it slumped from -6 to -57.
asserted
it → say → -57
That is a scary backdrop for Republicans, says Amy Walter, election analyst and publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
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Walter → say → Report
“If you’re the party in the White House there are really three options for you on election day,” Walter said at an event with the International Institute of Finance [IIF] in Washington on Thursday.
asserted
Walter → ’re → Thursday
“The election day is going to be bad; it’s going to be really bad; or it’s going to be catastrophically bad.
asserted
it → go → ?
You know that going in.
asserted
You → know → that
Now we’re into catastrophically bad territory.
asserted
we → ’re → territory
Nonetheless, the Cook Political Report is not predicting a landslide where 50 or 60 seats change hands.
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seats → predict → hands
That is not realistic given the sharply divided nature of modern US politics, the GOP stranglehold on rural areas, and a highly gerrymandered electoral map.
asserted
That → give → areas
“There are just so few competitive seats out there,” Walter said.
asserted
Walter → be → ?
That is why, despite conditions ripe for a rout, the Cook Political Report predicts Democrats will end up with a majority between five and 13 seats.
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Democrats → predict → seats
“Could it go higher?
uncertain
it → go → ?
Yes,” said Walter.
asserted
Walter → say → ?
It is more difficult for the Democrats to win the Senate, although pollster Nate Silver this week gave the party a 72 per cent change of flipping that chamber.
asserted
Silver → win → chamber
The result will come down to a handful of races, particularly Texas, Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Iowa.
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result → come → races
All have their own quirks and caveats.
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All → have → quirks
In Maine, Democrats handicapped themselves by choosing populist progressive Graham Platner, who was forced to withdraw after a series of controversies including a rape allegation that he denies.
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he → handicap → that
His successor Troy Jackson is now taking on incumbent Republican Susan Collins, who has distanced herself from Trump on key issues.
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who → take → issues
In Alaska, former Democratic congresswoman Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, and could benefit from another Republican candidate running whose name, coincidentally, is also Dan Sullivan.
uncertain
name → challenge → candidate
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed appears to have gained ground in Michigan, after the left-wing health administrator bested an establishment Democrat in the most expensive Senate primary ever.
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administrator → appear → primary
And Silver now has Texas leaning towards the Democrats’ James Talarico.
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Texas → have → Talarico
If he wins it would represent a harsh indictment on Republican candidate Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney-general, who defeated incumbent senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary thanks to Trump’s endorsement.
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who → win → endorsement
This week The New York Times obtained leaked audio of Paxton admitting that the Trump-heavy Republican convention in Dallas four weeks ago actually hurt the party.
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convention → obtain → party
“It dropped our numbers,” he said in the recording.
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he → drop → recording
“Everybody’s numbers dropped.”
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numbers → drop → ?
The picture was “not good” at the moment, he added.
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he → add → moment
There are signs Trump is nervous about areas that are supposed to be Republican strongholds.
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that → be → areas
On Thursday (US time) he travelled to Denton, Texas, and Durant, Oklahoma, for campaign events, and on Friday he was due to hold a rally in Mobile, Alabama.
asserted
he → travel → Mobile
He is planning to spend much of October on the road campaigning.
asserted
He → plan → road
As this masthead reported at the Dallas convention, the Republican strategy is explicit: get loyal Trump voters to feel as though his name is on the ballot.
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name → report → ballot
They want to motivate the low-information, low-propensity voters who turned out for Trump in 2024 to show up again on November 3.
asserted
who → want → November
Mobilising Trump loyalists to the polls could result in Republicans who have switched off Trump staying home.
uncertain
who → mobilise → Trump
…and 52 more, not listed.
The Aporia
