Thirty years ago, Wayne Smith, the former chief of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, argued in a 1996 essay that Cuba might follow something resembling Spain’s path under Francisco Franco.
uncertain
Cuba → argue → Franco
Economic liberalization would create new interests, those interests would demand political representation, and the system would evolve into something else.
asserted
system → create → something
Cuba did change, but the political opening never followed.
asserted
opening → change → ?
The regime permitted enough economic freedom to relieve pressure and restricted it whenever that freedom threatened political control.
asserted
freedom → permit → control
This week, Washington made clear it will not wait another 30 years.
asserted
wait → make → years
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Fox News host Sean Hannity on Sept. 28 that “you cannot have economic freedom in Cuba if you don’t have political freedom first,” calling the island “a failed state in every sense of the word.”
asserted
you → tell → word
Havana is offering markets.
asserted
Havana → offer → markets
Washington is demanding power.
asserted
Washington → demand → power
That creates an awkward contrast with the administration’s policy next door.
asserted
That → create → policy
In Venezuela, Washington has put economic stabilization before democratic transition, arguing that recovery is necessary to create conditions in which elections can succeed.
asserted
elections → put → which
In Cuba, the sequence is reversed.
asserted
sequence → reverse → Cuba
There may be good reasons for the distinction, but Washington has not clearly explained them.
uncertain
Washington → explain → them
In June, Cuba approved 176 reforms that would have been unimaginable under President Fidel Castro, from private banking and real estate development to direct hiring and diaspora investment.
asserted
that → approve → hiring
They represent perhaps the largest economic concessions the Communist Party has ever made.
asserted
Party → represent → concessions
They are aimed at a buyer who has already said the price is something else.
asserted
price → aim → buyer
The rhetoric suggests a showdown.
uncertain
rhetoric → suggest → showdown
At the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 22, President Donald Trump called Cuba “an absolutely failed state … failing like never before, and it will fall,” and said Rubio was “deep into negotiations with Cuba.”
asserted
Rubio → call → Cuba
Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez led his delegation out.
asserted
Rodriguez → lead → delegation
Fifteen days earlier, Rodriguez said there were no negotiations and no agenda for any.
asserted
Rodriguez → say → any
On Sept. 25, CBS News reported that Army Reserve headquarters had asked whether medical, engineer, sustainment, and military police formations could be available to the U.S. Southern Command within 90 to 120 days.
uncertain
formations → report → days
The message never named Cuba, and no deployment order was issued.
asserted
order → name → Cuba
The next day, Trump said, “Cuba and us will make a deal.
asserted
Cuba → say → deal
I don’t think we’ll need the military.”
asserted
we → think → military
Anyone who has planned stability operations recognizes that unit list.
asserted
who → plan → list
These are not primarily formations that seize terrain.
asserted
that → seize → terrain
They sustain forces, restore infrastructure, provide medical support, and impose order after something breaks.
asserted
something → sustain → order
It is a slowdown, and each capital believes the clock is working in its favor.
asserted
clock → believe → favor
A Jan. 29 executive order cut off Cuba’s oil by threatening tariffs on suppliers, while subsequent sanctions drove away foreign banks, shippers, and investors.
asserted
sanctions → cut → banks
Rubio described the method in August: “Every time they create a new mechanism in which they try to get out of the noose, we just close it off.”
asserted
we → describe → it
Joy Gordon, writing in Lawfare on Sept. 23, calls this “siege warfare by other means.”
asserted
Gordon → write → means
She cites an estimated 3 million Cubans without running water and a 60% drop in food production since January, reported by the U.N. human rights office.
asserted
She → cite → office
Gordon overreaches when she argues that nothing Havana did could have softened the blow, since Cuba’s economy had already shrunk sharply since 2020.
uncertain
economy → overreach → 2020
The better answer is that both forces are working at once.
asserted
forces → work → ?
The Cuban model spent decades hollowing out the state; Washington’s pressure has compressed what remained into months.
asserted
what → spend → months
Sieges end when the garrison surrenders, the attacker storms the walls, or relief arrives.
asserted
relief → end → walls
Relief is scarce: Venezuelan oil stopped after former dictator Nicolas Maduro’s capture on Jan. 3, and a Russian tanker in March provided only temporary respite.
Havana’s clock
Havana’s public posture is endurance.
asserted
posture → stop → respite
At the July 26 Moncada anniversary in Pinar del Rio, the Guardian reported about 5,000 faithful gathered before dawn.
asserted
faithful → report → dawn
Raul Castro, indicted by the United States on murder charges in May, missed the ceremony for the first time in 30 years.
uncertain
Castro → indict → years
The government even handed the 79-year-old singer Silvio Rodriguez an AK-47 on television.
asserted
government → hand → television
Hal Klepak of the Royal Military College of Canada described Cuba’s “war of all the people” as resting on a reserve that has atrophied since 1990.
asserted
that → describe → 1990
…and 27 more, not listed.
The Aporia
