The article discusses parallels between the current political climate facing Republicans in 2026 and the situation in 1990 under President George H.W. Bush. It highlights how the 1990 midterm elections were marred by high inflation, economic recession, and public discontent with a broken campaign promise not to raise taxes. The author, who was involved in strategy planning for Republican candidates at that time, describes efforts to distance House Republicans from the White House to minimize electoral losses, emphasizing the importance of anti-tax messaging and positioning GOP members as opposing elite interests.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-02,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Republicans are headed for a rough reckoning next month.
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Republicans → head → reckoning
Persistent inflation, record fuel prices, and widespread disapproval of the war with Iran have soured the outlook for the GOP.
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inflation → sour → GOP
According to the latest Wall Street Journal poll, President Donald Trump’s 37% approval rating is the lowest for any president since 1990.
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rating → accord → 1990
That comparison rang alarm bells with me.
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comparison → ring → me
We started the year optimistic about chipping away at the Democratic majority in the House.
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We → start → House
Early that year, our polling revealed a budding anti-tax, anti-incumbent mood.
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polling → reveal → mood
It was driven by a recession, a financial crisis in the savings-and-loan industry, and perceptions of corruption in the Democratic leadership.
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It → drive → leadership
By focusing on the Democrats’ woes, we hoped to defy the history of midterm losses for the party holding the White House.
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we → focus → House
With luck, we might even expand on the GOP’s 175 seats in the House.
uncertain
we → expand → House
JFK and Ronald Reagan had both picked up House seats in midterm elections.
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JFK → pick → elections
Bush’s 1988 campaign promise not to raise taxes positioned him to benefit from the anti-tax mood.
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promise → raise → mood
I was at the Republican National Convention in New Orleans when he made his famous, “Read my lips, no new taxes!” pledge to the delegates.
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he → make → delegates
But in the spring of 1990, Bush broke that promise and joined congressional Democrats to support a tax increase.
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Bush → break → increase
Bush’s flip-flop badly demoralized the GOP base.
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flop → demoralize → base
We had 17 open GOP seats to defend and another 23 incumbents we ranked vulnerable.
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we → have → seats
Without warning, Bush made losing most of our vulnerable incumbents and open GOP seats highly probable.
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losing → make → incumbents
The only way to curb GOP losses was to put distance between Republicans on the midterm ballot and the White House.
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way → curb → ballot
I put together a five-page strategy paper titled “The Tax Revolt of 1990.”
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I → put → 1990
I argued that the GOP’s congressional wing should spearhead the anti-incumbent, anti-tax public mood by openly opposing Bush’s tax increase.
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wing → argue → increase
Cautioning that it might require “a near Civil War within the Republican Party’s divergent governing coalitions,” I argued that we should “focus populist resentment” against “Harvard… the country club, the elite, intellectuals, the bankers and Wall Street.”
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we → caution → Harvard
My eye was on the long-term possibilities of the simmering anti-incumbent mood.
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eye → simmer → mood
If we could position GOP House members as anti-tax and hold down our 1990 losses, we might be able to flip the House in a future election if the mood turned into a wave.
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mood → position → wave
The memo concluded with a warning that “if we fall in line with the Senate, the House Democrats, and the White House, we sideline ourselves for the rest of the century.”
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we → conclude → century
NRCC co-chairman Edward J. Rollins, Jr., sent a memo to all GOP congressional candidates encouraging them to distance themselves from Bush’s tax increase.
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Jr. → send → increase
But our results spoke for themselves.
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results → speak → themselves
That November, the GOP lost a mere eight House races, one of the lowest midterm losses for a party in the White House.
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GOP → lose → House
As the anti-tax and anti-incumbent wave grew, the GOP picked up nine seats in 1992 and finally took control of the House in 1994 for the first time in fifty years.
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GOP → grow → years
When the president becomes political kryptonite in all but the safest GOP strongholds, create distance.
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president → become → distance
Don’t let groups operating inside the Beltway define your candidacy with their advertising and social media messaging, especially if it ties you too closely to Trump.
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it → let → Trump
Campaign on a pledge to represent your constituents in Washington and address the pocketbook issues that matter most to them right now.
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that → campaign → them
Allowing yourself to be positioned as a foot-soldier for Trump will only galvanize voters against you.
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yourself → allow → you
That doesn’t mean you can’t support the president at all.
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you → mean → president
Embrace those, but not at the cost of staking out an independent identity and addressing issues that matter in your district.
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that → embrace → district
Let voters know what you stand for, but also remind them what happens if the Democrats take the House: open borders, woke excesses, and more inflation from their blow-out spending.
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Democrats → let → spending
Your goal is to make the election a choice between you and your Democratic opponent, not between Trump and the Democratic Party.
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election → make → Trump
If you are running in a competitive race and it becomes a referendum on Trump, you’ll be the loser.
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you → run → Trump
John B. Roberts II served in the Reagan White House and was an international political strategist and executive producer of The McLaughlin Group.
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II → serve → Group
The Aporia
