Former Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has warned that Australia is underprepared for a potential military conflict involving China and Taiwan. In response to Kevin Rudd’s prediction of a one-in-three chance of China making a move on Taiwan by 2028, Abbott expressed concern about Australia's vulnerability, noting that such an event could lead to the cessation of trade with China and leave Australia susceptible to missile strikes due to inadequate air defenses. Abbott criticizes current leaders for not addressing this threat seriously enough and highlights increasing economic dependency on China as a significant risk.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-10-02,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has warned that Australia risks 'sleepwalking through lotus land' unless it confronts a potential war in the Pacific involving China.
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it → warn → China
The comments were prompted by remarks made by fellow ex-PM and China hawk Kevin Rudd in September.
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comments → prompt → September
Rudd said he believed there was a one-in-three chance Chinese President Xi Jinping could make a military move on Taiwan as soon as 2028, when the democratic island is due to hold presidential elections.
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island → say → elections
If current Taiwanese leader Lai Ching-te were re-elected, Xi could claim an anti-secession law passed by China in 2005 had been breached and therefore say he can use force to bring the self-ruled island under control.
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he → re → control
Following this revelation, Abbott used a recent newsletter to warn that, in Australia, the 'alarm needs to be sounded now - repeatedly and vigorously'.
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alarm → follow → Australia
Any military move by China could cause friction with the US as the island is central to the American strategic aims in the Pacific, which could have a ripple effect on Australia, he said.
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he → cause → Australia
'[It] would almost certainly mean that all our exports to China stop, that all our imports from China stop, that our export income and our fuel supplies almost immediately dry up,' Abbott said.
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Abbott → mean → China
[It would be quite possible] that there are missile strikes on Australia itself against which we currently have almost no air defences whatsoever.
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we → be → defences
Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has called out successive governments for 'brainwashing' Australians into not wanting to defend the country
Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump together in Washington in September
'
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Jinping → call → September
And that's before we're called upon to join any American action in defence of Taiwan which could readily see combat losses on a scale unseen since World War Two.'
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which → call → War
Abbott laid the blame for the nation's lack of readiness at the feet of 'successive governments' and said that, despite repeated warnings about the possibility for conflict, 'Australian leaders .. [have taken) almost no serious steps to deal with it'.
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leaders → lay → it
'If anything, over the past five years, our military capability has been cannibalised for AUKUS submarines that will arrive long after the period of peak danger,' he said.
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he → cannibalise → danger
'Our economic vulnerability to Chinese supply chains has increased; and our national torpor towards stirring ourselves for our own protection has deepened.
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torpor → increase → protection
After a generation of brainwashing that Australia exists on stolen land, opinion polls show that about half of young Australians don't believe our country is worth defending and would not fight for Australia should we be attacked.
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we → exist → Australia
our leaders then reassure us that there's really nothing to worry about because war would be in no one's interests - even though the real wars that are already taking place around the world, the shooting wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf, plus the grey zone war already being waged against Taiwan, show that economic logic and rational calculation alone do not determine the fate of nations.
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logic → reassure → nations
Abbott pointed to the upcoming book Australia at the Crossroads by former senior military officers Chris Mills and Stephen Hayes, which outlines a series of escalations that could bring the US and China into direct conflict over Taiwan.
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that → point → Taiwan
'Even if the US declined to intervene militarily in support of Taiwan, the risks to sea and air transport plus the economic sanctions that would inevitably be imposed in the event of any attempt to coerce Taiwan would massively disrupt normal life in Australia,' Abbott wrote.
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Abbott → decline → Australia
Tony Abbott has warned Australia is woefully underprepared for what war between the US and China might mean domestically
Former Prime Minister and President of the Asia Society Policy Institute Kevin Rudd has warned there is a 'one-in-three' chance of a conflict with China in the next 18 months
Abbott said that a country 'without a credible plan for the worst potential disaster that could befall it is sleepwalking through lotus land'.
He added that the conversation on readiness should have been launched 'years ago' but can be started now by joining with allies to warn Beijing about 'the consequences of aggression'.
Australia should also strengthen its military capabilities, including weapons stockpiling, end its dependence on China for supply chains and ask all citizens: 'What might you be prepared to do for Australia?', Abbott said.
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Abbott → warn → Australia
Abbott's piece echoed Rudd's sentiments delivered last month when he spoke at the National Press Club and said Australia must undergo a 'radical change' to the national mindset.
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Australia → echo → mindset
In a separate speech delivered that same week, Rudd said he believed the risk of a conflict between China and Taiwan was an 'increased possibility'.
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risk → deliver → China
'When I say an increased possibility, I don't mean from 5 per cent to 10 per cent.
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I → say → cent
I mean an increased possibility, which I argue is around about one in three, and I don't use that lightly,' he said.
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he → mean → that
The current dispute between China and Taiwan dates back to a civil war in which the nationalist forces of Chiang Kai-shek were defeated by Mao Zedong's communist fighters and fled to Taiwan in 1949.
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forces → date → 1949
Since then, China and Taiwan have been ruled separately.
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China → rule → ?
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