Not-so-outlandish, prognosticators say: The Nobel Peace Prize this year could go galactic, with an award to the International Space Station.
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Prize → say → Station
But terrestrial contenders loom too, including U.S. President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Mark Carney of Canada, emergency teams in Sudan, children’s advocates in Ukraine and two top international courts, experts say.
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experts → loom → Ukraine
The annual guessing game about who will win the prize, often called the most prestigious award on the planet, is revving up ahead of the Norwegian Nobel Committee's Oct. 9 announcement of the winner in Oslo.
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who → win → Oslo
Predicting the outcome is inherently speculative.
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Predicting → predict → outcome
The committee received 287 candidates for this year’s prize, and just over a quarter of them are organizations.
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quarter → receive → them
Experts say the committee, in its process of awarding the prize, typically focuses on the durability of peace, the promotion of international fraternity and the quiet work of institutions that strengthen those goals.
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that → say → goals
International Space Station a symbol of global cooperation
Haakon Gjerløw, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, is considered a top forecaster.
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Gjerløw → consider → Institute
He says the ISS — well, the organization behind it — is a rare symbol of global cooperation in a quest toward the heavens at a time when multilateralism is crumbling and many countries have retreated into narrower national interests on Earth.
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countries → say → Earth
The institute's annual watch list is one of the sources that most informs pundits and punters about the top contenders.
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that → inform → contenders
Trump has made no secret of his desire to win the prize, and has been nominated again, but could be viewed as a controversial choice after the U.S., along with Israel, launched an ongoing war on Iran in February.
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U.S. → make → February
Trump and Canada's Carney are both candidates
Canada's Carney has made a mark internationally this year, in large part by standing up to Trump on issues like U.S. tariffs.
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Carney → make → tariffs
Gjerløw's list this year also features Ukrainian children’s advocate Mykola Kuleba and Save the Children; Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, a grassroots relief network; and the Committee to Protect Journalists after the deadliest two years for reporters since record-keeping began nearly 45 years ago.
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keeping → feature → reporters
The International Court of Justice and International Criminal Court, jointly, also got a nod.
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Court → get → nod
The ICC has faced criticism and controversy among some, and respect from others, over its arrest warrants against leaders like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
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ICC → face → Putin
Trump has long criticized the ICC, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in July announced a campaign to “dismantle the threat … posed by the International Criminal Court to U.S. sovereignty.”
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Rubio → criticize → sovereignty
Later that month, the ICC's chief prosecutor was removed from office over sexual misconduct allegations.
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prosecutor → remove → allegations
Gjerløw said the committee’s choice is complicated by recent turmoil after 2025 laureate María Corina Machado of Venezuela, in a symbolic gesture, presented her prize to Trump days after U.S. forces removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power.
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forces → say → power
Conflicts and wars mark this year's prize
This year's peace prize comes in an era marked by the most war and conflict in decades, including in Sudan, Ukraine, Yemen, Iran and the Middle East.
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prize → mark → Sudan
Shawn Davies, a senior analyst at the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which monitors conflicts, cited “increased international tensions and changes in the global security order” that he linked to an erosion of U.S. willingness to enforce international rules.
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which → monitor → rules
Washington has gone from guarantor of the postwar order to a violator of it in some cases, he said.
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he → go → cases
“I don’t even think his own base would believe” Trump could win the prize now, “given how he’s stuck in what looks like a forever war in Iran,” Davies said.
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Davies → think → Iran
Jody Williams, who won the 1997 Peace Prize jointly with the International Campaign to Ban Landmines, says she hopes for a continued trend toward awarding the prize to women.
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she → win → women
In the past 15 years, eight women have won the prize individually, compared to just six men.
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women → win → men
Among names of the women circulating in prediction markets this year are Gaza surgeon Sara al-Saqqa and Yulia Navalnaya, the Russian opposition figure and widow of Alexei Navalny.
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Saqqa → circulate → Navalny
Nobels start with prize for medicine
Nobel week kicks off Monday with the announcement of the medicine prize, followed by the physics prize on Tuesday, chemistry on Wednesday and literature on Thursday.
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week → start → Thursday
After Friday’s peace prize is awarded, the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences will be announced on Oct. 12.
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Prize → award → Oct.
When it comes to the peace prize selection, expect political fallout no matter who wins.
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who → come → fallout
“Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel,” said Nelson Wiseman, a University of Toronto professor emeritus.
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Wiseman → get → Toronto
“If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are.”
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they → get → Canada
The Aporia
