This is part of a recurring Washington Examiner series ranking the Senate seats most likely to flip in the 2026 midterm elections.
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This → recur → elections
The rankings will be updated as the political landscape shifts, with new editions planned for Oct. 1 and one week before Election Day.
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editions → update → Day
Democrats are leaving no stone unturned in their quest to flip four Senate seats and, with it, take back control of the upper chamber from Republicans.
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Democrats → leave → Republicans
But with the GOP’s 53-47 majority, anything short of a four-seat net gain for Democrats will still mean a slim Republican majority or even a Biden-era split Senate scenario, with Vice President JD Vance acting as a tiebreaker.
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Vance → mean → tiebreaker
If there’s one thing political operatives, candidates, and nonpartisan election forecasters can agree on, it’s that the midterm elections are a virtual toss-up for the Senate.
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elections → ’ → Senate
Or as a national Republican operative described the current map: As many as eight races could swing one way or the other.
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races → describe → map
“We’ve got a lot of jump balls right now, and when you consider margin of error in a lot of these races, Republicans could end up winning all eight battlegrounds or losing all eight battlegrounds,” the operative told the Washington Examiner.
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operative → get → Examiner
“That is how close a lot of these contests are going to be.”
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lot → go → contests
These rankings are based on meetings with party committees, as well as analysis of the latest polling and fundraising numbers.
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rankings → base → numbers
The list considers each race on its individual merits, rather than a total assessment of which party might win the majority.
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party → consider → majority
The list is also not meant to be declarative but instead a snapshot in time of where the most competitive races in the Senate stand roughly two months from Election Day.
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races → mean → Day
Nonpartisan election forecasters believe the open seat, being vacated by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC), currently leans Democrat.
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seat → believe → Democrat
It is so far the only one this cycle in which the party that does not control the seat is projected to win.
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that → control → seat
The rest of the battlegrounds are either toss-ups or Democratic seats that lean in the party’s favor.
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that → lean → favor
Former Gov. Roy Cooper is an establishment-backed Democrat who has won four statewide elections.
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who → back → elections
GOP nominee Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman, is essentially an untested candidate who has not won elected office but rose through the ranks of the GOP over a decadeslong career between politics and private-sector lobbying.
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who → win → politics
Michigan, open Democratic seat
Michigan presents the ultimate swing-state scenario.
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Michigan → present → scenario
GOP nominee Mike Rogers lost to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) by just 0.3 percentage points in 2024, or only 19,000 votes.
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Rogers → lose → 2024
The race is to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), a more centrist member who once ran Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.
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who → replace → arm
But Democrats have a candidate quality issue with nominee Abdul el Sayed, who is bleeding support among Jewish Democrats for his anti-Israel positions and association with left-wing Twitch streamer Hasan Piker.
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who → have → Piker
He also aligns with the progressive insurgent wing of candidates this cycle, many of them socialists, who have triumphed over more centrist establishment-backed figures considered stronger general-election opponents.
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who → align → figures
In the primary, el Sayed bested Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), whom Democratic leaders in Washington felt was a greater challenge to Rogers.
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leaders → best → Rogers
Republicans believe the state’s governor’s race at the top of the ticket could also aid Rogers.
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race → believe → Rogers
But the good news for Democrats: Michigan is the only toss-up state controlled by the party.
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Michigan → toss → party
The rest are held by Republicans, marking more pickup opportunities in their bid to take back the Senate.
3.
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rest → hold → Senate
Maine is a blue state when it comes to presidential elections, but centrist Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) has, for decades, proven herself a formidable force not to be underestimated.
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herself → come → decades
Collins has held the swing seat since 1997, and Democrats fumbled the political football on their first nominee this year with Graham Platner.
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Democrats → hold → Platner
After Platner’s exit from the contest over rape and sexual assault allegations from past girlfriends, which he vehemently denied, Maine Democrats settled on former state Sen. Troy Jackson.
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Democrats → deny → Jackson
The race is rated a toss-up.
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race → rat → ?
Although a perennial battleground for the Senate, the Buckeye State has become a relatively safe place for Republicans in presidential elections, much like Florida.
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State → become → Florida
Most recently, Brown served three Senate terms that began in 2007 until he was ousted from his seat in 2024 by now-Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH).
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he → serve → Moreno
Ohio is also among the states where blowback to data centers has threatened to hurt incumbent Republicans.
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blowback → threaten → Republicans
The race, a special election for a full six-year term to the seat vacated by now-Vice President JD Vance, is a toss-up.
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race → vacate → Vance
“Ohio is statistically tied and extremely competitive,” the national GOP operative said.
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operative → tie → ?
“Husted has the advantage, electorally speaking.
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Husted → have → advantage
Financially speaking, Democrats are committed here, so more resources are going to be needed in Ohio.
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resources → speak → Ohio
They’re dumping more and more money into it, and we’re going to have to keep pace.”
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we → dump → pace
Alaska, Republican seat
Both leading candidates — Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) and Democrat Mary Peltola — enjoy broad name recognition.
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candidates → lead → recognition
Peltola is a centrist who has distanced herself from the national party and placed first in the all-party primary, leading Sullivan by 8 points.
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who → distance → points
Dan J. Sullivan Jr., a former Democrat running as a Republican, is among the four candidates to advance to the November general election and threatens to confuse voters at the ballot box.
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Jr. → run → box
…and 30 more, not listed.
The Aporia
