Jack Smith, Donald Trump, and the Kobayashi Maru

The Popehat Report · collected 2026-09-05 · by Ken White commentary
Read the original at The Popehat Report ↗

Summary

The author, who is also the guest on the podcast "Emergent Situation", discusses the moral and philosophical implications of prosecuting Donald Trump with Special Counsel Jack Smith. The author argues that even if Trump is convicted, he may emerge more powerful due to his ability to energize his base, fundraise, and potentially pardon himself in the future. This raises questions about whether pursuing the prosecution serves the greater good or undermines the rule of law. Key points mentioned include Judge Aileen Cannon's potential to derail the case, doubts about a Florida jury convicting Trump, and the possibility that the indictment may energize Trump's base.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-05, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
80
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
10%
8 of 80 hedged
Leaning
Leans left
expected in commentary, which argues a position
Publisher trust
not scored
Commentary is not rated for newsroom trust
Outlets on this story
unclustered
not grouped into a story yet
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-05 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Score -0.35 Confidence high
Leaning score -0.35 for article 4617 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-09-05

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Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

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Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.

Publisher

The Popehat Report · 20 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected

Commentary. The three signals behind a trust score all measure a newsroom's record with its own reporting, so they are not computed for this source. How trust is scored.

No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Ken White
20 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 I think it comes down to this: being beaten by the police doesn’t make you either a good person or a bad person, but some people would like to believe that it does.
2026-09-05 · assertive framing · Deserve’s Got Nothing To Do With It
🔮 With impeccable timing that only a university administration could achieve, BU announced Zaslav as its commencement speaker the day after the Writer’s Guild of America went on strike.
2026-09-05 · assertive framing · Speech or Cancel Culture At Boston University?
🔮 I pointed out that the somewhat predictable assignment of the case to Judge Aileen Cannon — who proved herself to be an arguably lawless Trump partisan when she entertained his attempts to derail his own investigation — will make it extraordinarily difficult to convict him.
2026-09-05 · assertive framing · Jack Smith, Donald Trump, and the Kobayashi Maru
🔮 It begins with a broad, rather vague pronouncement: (a) Any justice, judge, or magistrate judge of the United States shall disqualify himself in any proceeding in which his impartiality might reasonably be questioned.1 We’ll get back to that.
🔮 For more than half a century, courts have used a (purportedly) objective standard to determine whether a threat is true, asking whether a reasonable person, familiar with the context, would interpret the threat as a sincere expression of intent to do harm.
🔮 They couldn’t report many verbatim quotes (they should have brought someone who takes shorthand) and federal courts don’t allow broadcast or media recoding of proceedings.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Hunter Biden And The Fog Of War
🔮 Glenn is agitated because the United States decided to drop a charge of conspiracy to commit campaign finance violations it had previously brought against infamous manchild Sam Bankman-Fried, the answer to the question “how bad could it be, being raised by two Stanford professors?”
🔮 Assuming, as we have, for it has not been challenged, that this statistical side of the Department of Agriculture is the exercise of a function within the purview of the Constitution, it must follow that any conspiracy which is calculated to obstruct or impair its efficiency and destroy the value of its operations and reports as fair, impartial, and reasonably accurate would be to defraud the United States by depriving it of its lawful right and duty of promulgating or diffusing the information so officially acquired in the way and at the time required by law or departmental regulation.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · People Are Lying To You About The Trump Indictment
🔮 In the old days, the resulting sentencing range was mandatory and bound the court; in 2005 the Supreme Court ruled that the Guidelines could only be treated as a recommendation, not a mandate.
2026-09-04 · assertive framing · Beware The Flood Of Trump Sentencing Disinformation
🔮 One is to describe, to the best of your ability, what you believe the state of the law is, how and where courts might agree or disagree with you, and how your view of what the law should be differs from how courts currently interpret it.
Also by Ken White
Deserve’s Got Nothing To Do With It
2026-09-05 · The Popehat Report
Speech or Cancel Culture At Boston University?
2026-09-05 · The Popehat Report
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 20 articles by Ken White →

Topics

Florida Republican rubes the Department of Justice the Justice Department

Subjects

Kobayashi Maru PERSON · 4× Trump PERSON · 4× Aileen Cannon PERSON · 1× Cannon PERSON · 1× Florida GPE · 1× Jack Smith’s PERSON · 1× Josh PERSON · 1× Ken PERSON · 1× Republican NORP · 1× rubes NORP · 1×

Narrative

The attorney for the government should commence or recommend federal prosecution if he/she believes that the person's conduct constitutes a federal offense, and that the admissible evidence will probably be sufficient to obtain and sustain a conviction, unless (1) the prosecution would serve no substantial federal interest; (2) the person is subject to effective prosecution in another jurisdiction; or (3) there exists an adequate non-criminal alternative to prosecution.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-05
🔮 I pointed out that the somewhat predictable assignment of the case to Judge Aileen Cannon — who proved herself to be an arguably lawless Trump partisan when she entertained his attempts to derail his own investigation — will make it extraordinarily difficult to convict him.
2026-09-05 · The Popehat Report
Jack Smith, Donald Trump, and the Kobayashi Maru · assertive framing

Claims (80 extracted, 8 hedged)

Every now and then I get to give the Kobayashi Maru speech to a young associate. asserted
I → get → associate
There are two types of young associates: those who immediately know what I am talking about when I mention the Kobayashi Maru speech, and those who stand there, deeply concerned, wearing a tolerant-of-this-Boomer1 expression but completely mystified by the reference. asserted
who → be → reference
Good lawyers can often avoid them or mitigate their impact, or negotiate a resolution that makes them unnecessary, but can never completely eliminate them. asserted
them → avoid → them
Sometimes you are going to lose. asserted
you → go → ?
Sometimes you KNOW you are going to lose. asserted
you → know → ?
This concerns young associates. asserted
This → concern → associates
Ken, they say, we’re going to lose this motion. asserted
we → say → motion
What am I supposed to do? asserted
I → suppose → What
The answer is that you prepare competently, advocate vigorously, and fight for your client’s rights. asserted
you → prepare → rights
You act like you have a chance because the client needs you to do that and the system depends on you doing that. asserted
you → act → that
You act like you have a chance because doing a vigorous, competent job can preserve your client’s trust in you, ease the impact of a loss, and sometimes even achieve a seemingly impossible win. asserted
doing → act → win
I’ve been thinking about the Kobayashi Maru speech since Trump was indicted. asserted
Trump → think → speech
Yesterday, on our Emergent Situation Episode of Serious Trouble, Josh and I sparred a bit over the moral and political philosophy of Jack Smith’s decision to prosecute. asserted
Josh → spar → decision
I pointed out that the somewhat predictable assignment of the case to Judge Aileen Cannon — who proved herself to be an arguably lawless Trump partisan when she entertained his attempts to derail his own investigation — will make it extraordinarily difficult to convict him. asserted
it → point → him
If Judge Cannon presides over the case she can derail the prosecution in myriad ways, some of them unreviewable, if she wants to. asserted
she → preside → them
Moreover, there’s reason to doubt that a Florida jury will convict Trump. asserted
jury → ’ → Trump
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, striking Trump down with a federal indictment may make him more powerful than we can possibly imagine. uncertain
we → strike → indictment
Trump will use the prosecution to energize his base, propagandize “independents,” and fundraise from rubes. asserted
Trump → use → rubes
It’s very possible it will make it easier to win the Republican nomination and plausible it will help him win the Presidency, which he will use to pardon himself and further demolish the rule of law. asserted
he → ’ → law
Does that mean that the Department of Justice shouldn’t do it? asserted
Department → mean → it
Well, I mean, that's a philosophical question. asserted
that → mean → ?
And I guess it might be there are other scenarios where it doesn't go exactly in the way that we're describing here, but we just sketched out a scenario in which this action by the Justice Department fails to uphold the rule of law and actually undermines it. uncertain
action → guess → it
I guess this is a question of whether we have a consequentialist ethics, but it's the idea that you must do this because you must do it out of fealty to the rule of law. asserted
you → guess → law
That assumes a certain moral framework. asserted
That → assume → framework
I'm laying out a possibility that in fact this is quite damaging to the rule of law, or that you've described that it's likely to end up with an outcome that's quite damaging to the rule of law. asserted
that → lay → law
Ken White: Well, I disagree and here's why. asserted
here → disagree → ?
The rule of law doesn't mean that everyone is always going to do the right thing. asserted
everyone → mean → thing
The process of the rule law presumes that sometimes there will be bad actors. asserted
process → presume → law
Sometimes jurors will nullify for bad reasons. asserted
jurors → nullify → reasons
Sometimes judges will make bad calls. asserted
judges → make → calls
The rule of law is about we have this system, it's imperfect, we're going to put the person through the process because that's how we do things. asserted
we → have → things
And so, ultimately, even if you think you might get a bad unfair ruling, what you do is you put it through because you want to demonstrate that no one's above the law. uncertain
one → think → law
And so, we have to take the shot. asserted
we → have → shot
And because if we don't, because if you don't pursue a criminal because the criminal has put a crooked judge on the bench, then you're really completely giving up. asserted
you → do → bench
But the Justice Department makes strategic decisions all the time about what crimes not to charge. asserted
Department → make → crimes
And I mean, in this instance, even if you're thinking about holding Trump accountable, they have a parallel investigation into matters related to January 6th that presumably would be charged in Washington DC if it were ever charged. asserted
it → mean → DC
If you're looking at a situation where you have a menu of options about what you can charge someone with, all of the stuff we're describing here, those sound like considerations that would weigh in favor of prioritizing the January 6th prosecution, trying to move that one first. asserted
that → look → one
If charging Trump with overt, obvious crimes is doomed to fail for political reasons and may have negative political effects, should the Department of Justice do it? uncertain
Department → charge → it
Let us start, as you would expect, with pedantry. asserted
you → let → pedantry
What do the rules say? asserted
rules → say → What
…and 40 more, not listed.
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