Among the world’s top fuel-consuming nations, Japan is the most energy insecure.
asserted
Japan → consume → nations
Its import-dependency ratios are scary: It buys overseas 99.9 per cent of the oil it needs; 99.7 per cent of the coal; and 97.8 per cent of the natural gas.
asserted
it → buy → gas
So Tokyo springs into action after every major energy shock to reassess its supply sources, making it a bellwether of global trends.
asserted
it → spring → trends
The direction it’s signalling this time?
asserted
it → signal → ?
Where Japan goes, others in Asia would too.
asserted
others → go → Asia
Indeed, South Korea, another major energy importer, has already announced plans to reduce its reliance on the Middle East.
asserted
Korea → announce → East
India has been less vocal but was trying to diversify even before the war in Iran.
asserted
India → try → Iran
Beyond creating a major conundrum for Middle Eastern suppliers, the shift goes against geographic, economic and historic reasoning.
asserted
shift → create → reasoning
The Middle East and Far East are relatively close, so it makes commercial sense — particularly when the cost of shipping is high, as it is now — that oil flows from one region to the other.
asserted
oil → make → other
And so it has done for decades.
asserted
it → do → decades
Despite its deep sense of energy vulnerability after the 1973-74 oil crisis, and again in 1979, Japan trusted the Middle East, buying more than 90 per cent of its crude from the region.
asserted
Japan → trust → region
With the benefit of hindsight, the policy was — to borrow a phrase from Nobuo Tanaka, a former senior energy official in Japan who later ran the International Energy Agency — a “mistake”.
asserted
who → borrow → Agency
If the mantra in the 1970s and 1980s was ‘get oil out of electricity,’ the next objective should be more radical: get oil out of transportation.
asserted
objective → get → transportation
But read between the lines, and it’s obvious that Japanese officials are trying to rectify what they see as a policy failure.
asserted
they → read → failure
The key is “diversifying procurement sources and transport routes,” according to a cabinet document.
uncertain
key → diversify → document
The goal, while unquantified, is clear: to “break free from a structural vulnerability where recurring energy supply instability and constraints act as a bottleneck for Japan’s economic growth”.
asserted
instability → break → growth
To be sure, the documents also talk about supporting construction of new pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which would allow it to keep buying crude from, say, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia without having to worry as much about instability in Iran.
asserted
it → talk → Iran
But Japan still looks to be headed for a major supply shift.
asserted
Japan → look → shift
The Japanese government is discussing the plan, and a formal announcement including import targets and taxpayer money to support it may come before year-end.
uncertain
announcement → discuss → end
Seoul, meanwhile, has already set a quota and vows to reduce its oil supply from any region to 50 per cent of the total.
asserted
Seoul → set → total
Currently, the Middle East accounts for just over 75 per cent of South Korean oil imports.
asserted
East → account → imports
Japan may not have the numbers sorted, but it isn’t waiting for the end of the war to make changes.
uncertain
it → have → changes
In July, according to the latest monthly data available, the US was its main provider of oil, accounting for 37 per cent of total petroleum imports.
uncertain
US → accord → imports
It’s worth repeating because it reflects the power of the US shale revolution along with the latest upheaval in the global oil market: Washington is today the biggest oil supplier to Tokyo.
asserted
Washington → ’ → Tokyo
Mexico and Latin America provided another 3 per cent.
asserted
Mexico → provide → cent
Turning those one-off statistics into sustained flows won’t be easy.
asserted
Turning → turn → flows
But if history serves as any guide, Japan has demonstrated it can shift its oil consumption when it senses its national security is at stake.
asserted
security → serve → stake
Back in the late 1970s, the country consumed more than 5.5 million barrels a day, generating more than 60 per cent of its electricity burning crude and fuel-oil.
asserted
country → consume → crude
Betting heavily on coal, nuclear and liquefied natural gas, it pushed oil out of its power industry almost entirely.
asserted
it → bet → industry
By 2025, Japanese oil consumption had fallen to a 55-year low of less than 3 million barrels a day.
asserted
consumption → fall → barrels
Reducing dependency on the Middle East would be easier if overall Japanese oil demand drops further.
asserted
demand → reduce → East
The fewer barrels it needs to buy, the easier it is to shift purchases.
asserted
it → need → purchases
If the mantra in the 1970s and 1980s was “get oil out of electricity,” the next objective should be more radical: get oil out of transportation.
asserted
objective → get → transportation
It was Japan that gave the world the first mass-produced hybrid car, Toyota’s Prius.
asserted
that → give → car
Hybrids have made huge inroads since then, helping to reduce gasoline consumption by about half over the last two decades.
asserted
Hybrids → make → decades
But Japan, the world’s fourth-largest car market by sales totals, lags in adoption of pure electric vehicles.
asserted
Japan → lag → vehicles
Having developed hybrids first, its car manufacturers didn’t push nearly as hard as China’s into full electrification.
asserted
manufacturers → develop → electrification
The result is that today only about 2 per cent of new cars sales in Japan are full EVs, well below the 28 per cent average in Europe, and even trailing the US and Canada.
asserted
cent → trail → US
The International Energy Agency believes the high share of the population living in apartments with limited access to private parking, in combination with a limited charging network, are constraining EV sales in Japan.
asserted
share → believe → Japan
That makes EVs an important lever for reducing oil imports, which would make diversification easier.
asserted
diversification → make → imports
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
