The UK government is set to give the go-ahead for a controversial new gas field off the coast of Aberdeen, the BBC understands.
asserted
BBC → set → Aberdeen
Approval for the Jackdaw project could come in mid-September, just before Parliament breaks for party conference season, according to government and industry sources.
uncertain
Parliament → come → sources
The gas field was approved by the former Conservative government in 2022 but was delayed by a legal ruling from a Scottish court, after environmental groups argued consent was given without fully considering the climate impact.
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consent → approve → impact
Jackdaw's owner says it will account for 6% of UK gas output when at peak production but environmental groups say it will provide only 2% of UK use when imports are included.
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imports → say → use
Campaigners launched legal challenges after Jackdaw was approved in 2022 and when the Rosebank oil field off Shetland was given the green light in 2023.
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field → launch → 2023
The Court of Session in Edinburgh ruled last year that Rosebank and Jackdaw had been unlawfully approved because the government had failed to take into account the climate impact of burning extracted oil and gas from the sites.
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government → rule → sites
A judge ruled that more detailed climate assessments had to be published, and further estimates were put out for consultation in July.
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estimates → rule → July
Both Jackdaw and Rosebank are operated by Adura, a joint venture between energy giants Shell and Norway's Equinor.
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Jackdaw → operate → giants
Aberdeen-based firm Ithaca also owns 20% of Rosebank.
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Ithaca → base → Rosebank
Adura has estimated that Jackdaw could produce 35.8m tonnes of carbon over its 11-year lifetime, the equivalent of 90% of Scotland's emissions for 2023.
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Jackdaw → estimate → 2023
But it said a more likely estimate was about 23.6m tonnes - equivalent to 60% of the 2023 figure.
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estimate → say → figure
Environmentalists insist that more drilling would be unconscionable, hampering efforts to cut planet-warming carbon emissions as deadly heatwaves and extreme weather affect billions across the globe.
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heatwaves → insist → globe
They also say starting production would not protect energy security and that transitioning sooner to greener technologies would be better for supporting jobs.
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transitioning → say → jobs
But industry bodies argue that starting production at the sites would provide much-needed jobs and improve the UK's energy security as overseas conflicts threaten supply.
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conflicts → argue → supply
Advocates of the project also told the BBC that Jackdaw's output is critical to extending the life of other North Sea infrastructure including Shearwater - a large offshore oil and gas production hub that processes hydrocarbons before piping them to coastal refineries and terminals.
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that → tell → refineries
Adura said that if approval comes in September, the field could start delivering gas to UK homes by this winter as the construction is "99% complete".
uncertain
construction → say → winter
A public consultation on the future of Jackdaw and another new oil field, Rosebank, closed in August and the decision now rests with Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh.
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decision → close → Fahnbulleh
Speaking in the House of Commons on Thursday, Energy Minister Kate White said that the energy secretary would make separate decisions on the two sites, but gave no indication of the timings of an announcement.
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secretary → speak → announcement
"The process ended in August, and the Secretary of State will be taking those decisions in due course," she told MPs.
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she → end → MPs
Prime Minister Andy Burnham recently said there needs to be a "pragmatic approach" towards domestic oil and gas.
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Burnham → say → oil
"We won't be able to stop using oil and gas for some time.
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We → stop → time
That's just a fact," he said.
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he → say → ?
"The question is whether we can accelerate use of it so that we pay for the transition."
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we → accelerate → transition
Unlike North Sea oil, most of which is exported and then reimported in various refined forms, almost all North Sea gas is used domestically in the UK.
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gas → export → UK
The UK is heavily reliant on gas imports with over 60% imported from Norway and the United States.
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% → import → Norway
Wholesale natural gas prices have surged this year as a result of the Iran war and are currently at a three-year high, prompting concerns over energy security.
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prices → surge → security
Gas storage levels in Europe are significantly lower than usual for this time of year after countries delayed stockpiling in the summer in the hope that the conflict would end before winter and prices would in turn fall.
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prices → delay → turn
They face the prospect of rushing to buy gas now or paying potentially higher prices when the winter comes.
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winter → face → prices
Prices are set internationally and a green light to Jackdaw would not lower the cost of gas for domestic consumers.
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light → set → consumers
But extracting gas domestically creates lower greenhouse gas emissions than liquefying, shipping and regasifying liquid natural gas (LNG) imported from other countries.
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extracting → extract → countries
Chris O'Shea, the boss of British Gas owner Centrica, said any additional domestic gas supply would reduce Britain's reliance on imported fossil fuels, "so it's got to be good".
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it → say → fuels
He told the BBC's Today programme: "It wouldn't lower the cost materially, but basic economics would tell you that if you've got a fixed demand for a product and you increase the supply, the price should move."
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price → tell → supply
He also pointed to the high tax rates on profits from North Sea oil and gas, adding that the new extraction would give the government more money to spend.
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extraction → point → money
Tessa Khan, executive director of environmental group Uplift which brought the legal challenge, said more North Sea drilling would not cut energy bills and would "make no meaningful difference" to UK energy supply.
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drilling → bring → supply
"The science is clear that the world already has far more oil and gas than can ever be safely burned if we are to limit warming," she added.
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she → have → warming
"When it comes to these decisions, the prime minister needs to listen to scientists warnings and think back to those families who lost their homes to this summer's wildfires, the UK farmers struggling to grow our food in the drought, and the lives lost in the floods in Nepal – and not the self-interested demands of the oil companies."
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said it does not comment on speculation.
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it → come → speculation
A spokesman added: "The North Sea remains a vital national asset and oil and gas will continue to play an important role in our energy system for decades to come - alongside transitioning to clean power to protect jobs and tackle the climate crisis.
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oil → add → crisis
"Any decision will take into account all relevant evidence, including environmental assessments and public representations received during the consultation process."
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decision → take → process
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