Close contest expected between PPP, independent candidate in Saturday's Skardu by-election

Dawn - Home · collected 2026-09-04 · by Jamil Nagri
Read the original at Dawn - Home ↗

Summary

A close contest is expected between PPP candidate Akhtar Abbas and independent candidate Mohammad Saleem in the upcoming by-election for the GBA-09 constituency in Skardu, which will be held on Saturday. According to the election schedule, 33,000 voters will cast their ballots, with security personnel from GB Police, GB Scouts, and the armed forces deployed at polling stations. Analysts predict a close contest due to Abbas's potential vote bank and public sympathy after his father was disqualified, while Saleem had previously won in the constituency in 2020. The by-election was called after PPP candidate Fida Muhammad Nashad was disqualified by the GB Supreme Appellate Court.
Written by the local model on 2026-09-04, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
26
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
19%
5 of 26 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher trust
95.2
red-flag proxy, not a credibility rating
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-04 · how these are computed

AI analysis (generated at analysis time, not now)

Story summary

A close contest is expected in the Saturday Skardu by-election between *PPP* candidate Akhtar Abbas and independent candidate Mohammad Saleem. The election was called after the GB Supreme Appellate Court disqualified original PPP candidate Fida Muhammad Nashad, who had been declared a returned candidate in the June polls. Nashad's son is now running on the PPP ticket, while Mohammad Ajmal from *PML-N* and Saleem are also among the 10 candidates vying for the seat. The election will be held in the GBA-09 (Skardu-III) constituency, with around 33,000 voters casting their ballots between 8am to 5pm. GB Chief Election Commissioner Raja Shahbaz Khan has assured that security and other arrangements are in place for a "transparent, impartial and peaceful" election. The contest is expected to be close due to the presence of several strong candidates.

Written for “Skardu By-Election” on 2026-09-05, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it +0.15, but every quote it verified points left, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 3833: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-09-04

Story

📰 Skardu By-Election
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 19% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Dawn - Home · 0.87 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 33% hedged 4 of 12 📰 publisher trust 95
“Both articles report on the same by-election in Skardu-III constituency and both mention Akhtar Abbas Nashad as the PPP candidate who won”

Publisher

Dawn - Home · 110 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
SignalValueWeight
Correction rate 0.000 0.4
Uncertainty density 0.095 0.25
Assertive mismatch rate 0.000 0.35
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Jamil Nagri
5 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 They said Abbas could retain his father’s vote bank and may benefit from public sympathy following Nashad’s disqualification by the GB Supreme Appellate Court.
🔮 The committee will be headed by Forest, Wildlife and Parks Secretary Subtain Ahmed, with Information Technology Secretary Zameer Abbas and Baltistan Division Commissioner Kamal Khan serving as members.
🔮 He said obstacles and challenges affecting internet connectivity in the region would be reviewed and necessary steps would be taken to address them.
🔮 Nashad’s son, Akhtar Abbas, will now contest the elections on PPP’s ticket, while Mohammad Ajmal will be in the field from PML-N. Former minister Mohammad Saleem, who is contesting as an independent, will also be among 10 candidates who have filed their nomination papers.
🔮 He added that the body would be brought back to Camp 2 today and Pakistan Army helicopters were expected to airlift Mushtaq’s body to Skardu after its arrival at the base camp later.
More on this subject from Jamil Nagri
All 5 articles by Jamil Nagri →

Topics

Dawn PPP Skardu The GB Election Commission the GB Supreme Appellate Court

Subjects

PPP ORG · 8× Nashad PERSON · 5× the GB Supreme Appellate Court ORG · 3× Dawn ORG · 2× Skardu GPE · 2× The GB Election Commission ORG · 2× the GB Chief Court’s ORG · 2× Akhtar Abbas PERSON · 1× Fida Muhammad Nashad PERSON · 1× GILGIT GPE · 1×

Narrative

Nashad’s son, Akhtar Abbas, will now contest the elections on PPP’s ticket, while Mohammad Ajmal will be in the field from PML-N. Former minister Mohammad Saleem, who is contesting as an independent, will also be among 10 candidates who have filed their nomination papers.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-04
🔮 Nashad’s son, Akhtar Abbas, will now contest the elections on PPP’s ticket, while Mohammad Ajmal will be in the field from PML-N. Former minister Mohammad Saleem, who is contesting as an independent, will also be among 10 candidates who have filed their nomination papers.

Claims (26 extracted, 5 hedged)

A close contest between a PPP and an independent candidate is expected as the by-election in the GBA-09 (Skardu-III) constituency is set for Saturday. asserted
election → expect → Saturday
The GB Election Commission had announced the by-election in the constituency after the GB Supreme Appellate Court had disqualified PPP candidate Fida Muhammad Nashad, who had been notified as a returned candidate in the June polls. asserted
who → announce → polls
Nashad’s son, Akhtar Abbas, will now contest the elections on PPP’s ticket, while Mohammad Ajmal will be in the field from PML-N. Former minister Mohammad Saleem, who is contesting as an independent, will also be among 10 candidates who have filed their nomination papers. asserted
who → contest → papers
According to the election schedule, 33,000 voters will cast their ballots as polling will run from 8am to 5pm. uncertain
polling → accord → pm
In a statement issued on Friday, GB Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Raja Shahbaz Khan said that security, deployment of polling staff and other arrangements had been completed for the by-election GBA-09 (Skardu-III). asserted
security → issue → election
He expressed his determination to conduct “transparent, impartial and peaceful” elections and provide voters with the facilities to cast their vote without fear. asserted
He → express → fear
Khan also directed the institutions and officials concerned to fulfil their duties responsibly and effectively during the electoral process. asserted
Khan → direct → process
“No kind of obstruction in the polling process will be tolerated,” he warned. asserted
he → tolerate → process
Analysts said a close contest between PPP’s Abbas and the independent candidate is expected. asserted
contest → say → Abbas
They said that the PPP candidate retains his father’s vote bank and could have the public’s sympathy after GB’s top court disqualified Nashad. uncertain
court → say → Nashad
On the other hand, Saleem — winner from the same constituency in the 2020 GB general elections — had managed to be the runner-up in the June polls. asserted
Saleem → manage → polls
District Returning Officer (DRO) Hamza Murad also told Dawn that all arrangements and the security plan had been finalised for the by-election, with the polling staff and paraphernalia also dispatched. asserted
staff → tell → election
GBA-09 has a total of 61 polling stations, of which 25 have been declared “sensitive” in Category A, 11 termed “medium” under Category B, and another 25 deemed normal in Category C, the DRO said. asserted
DRO → have → C
“Personnel from GB Police, GB Scouts and the armed forces have been deployed accordingly,” Murad added. asserted
Murad → deploy → Police
Separately, GB Chief Secretary Arshad Majeed and the GB CEC held a meeting on Friday to review the security plan, law and order and arrangements at polling stations, according to a statement. “The chief election commissioner expressed his determination to conduct transparent, impartial and peaceful elections, while the chief secretary assured full cooperation from the provincial government,” it stated. uncertain
it → hold → government
Shakoor Abdullah, a local journalist, told Dawn that voters in the constituency were enthusiastic to use their right to vote. asserted
voters → tell → right
Currently, PPP has 13 seats in the GB Assembly, PML-N has nine, the Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP) has six, while Majlis Wahdat-i-Muslimeen (MWM) and a PTI-backed independent occupy one seat each. asserted
Muslimeen → have → seat
According to Forms 47 and 48 issued by the GB Election Commission, Nashad, the PPP candidate and veteran politician, had won a GB Assembly seat from GBA-09 (Skardu-III) in the June 7 general elections. uncertain
Nashad → accord → elections
However, his opponent, Zakir Hussain, had challenged his eligibility to become a member of the assembly before the GB Supreme Appellate Court. asserted
opponent → challenge → Court
On June 19, GB Supreme Appellate Court Chief Justice Sardar Muhammad Shamim Khan issued an order suspending the issuance of the result from the constituency until the case was decided. asserted
case → issue → constituency
In its verdict on July 9, the GB Supreme Appellate Court had disqualified PPP candidate Nashad for concealing his assets in his nomination papers, setting aside the GB Chief Court’s decision that had allowed him to contest the elections. asserted
him → disqualify → elections
The court declared the GB Chief Court’s order dated May 25, 2026 “null and void” and upheld the election tribunal’s decision. uncertain
order → declare → decision
Nashad’s nomination papers were initially rejected by the returning officer (RO), prompting him to challenge the decision before the election tribunal. asserted
papers → reject → tribunal
The tribunal, however, upheld the RO’s decision. asserted
tribunal → uphold → decision
Subsequently, Nashad challenged the tribunal’s verdict in the GB Chief Court, which allowed him to contest the elections. asserted
him → challenge → elections
After the verdict was issued by the GB Supreme Appellate Court, the GB Election Commission announced a by-election in GBA-09 on September 5. asserted
Commission → issue → September
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