South Alabama vs. Kentucky odds, prediction: Why the Jaguars are the ultimate ugly underdog play

Read the original at New York Post ↗
New York Post · collected 2026-09-26 · by Michael Leboff

Quick Summary

The article discusses the upcoming college football game between South Alabama and Kentucky, focusing on the betting odds and prediction for an upset. It highlights South Alabama's coach Major Applewhite developing a strong running game with multiple capable backs, leading to an average of nearly 50 rushing attempts per game in 2026. Despite being significant underdogs against Kentucky, which recently secured an SEC win over Texas A&M, the article suggests that South Alabama’s defensive struggles are offset by their ability to control pace and maintain possession through effective running plays.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-26, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

In a recent college football game on Saturday, Kentucky dominated South Alabama with a final score of 45-21. CJ Baxter, Jason Patterson, and Jovantae Barnes led Kentucky's rushing attack, combining for 386 yards and five touchdowns. This was the first time since 2020 that Kentucky had three 100-yard rushers in a single game. Despite turnovers and an ejection of linebacker Elijah "Bo" Barnes, Kentucky coach Will Stein praised his team's performance, noting Patterson's improvement and Baxter's health. South Alabama's quarterback Jared Hollins threw for 266 yards and two touchdowns but couldn't overcome the Wildcats' defensive and offensive prowess. The win improves Kentucky's record to 3-1, while South Alabama falls to 2-2.

Written for “South Alabama Kentucky Football Game” on 2026-10-14, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 South Alabama Kentucky Football Game
Sports · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 4% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 26 📰 publisher trust 63
“Both articles describe the same football game between Kentucky and South Alabama on September 26, 2026.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 4 of 41 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles discuss different football teams and their upcoming challenges, with Article A focusing on Ole Miss vs. Florida, while Article B discusses betting predictions for Kentucky.”

Cite this article

Leboff, M. (2026, September 26). South Alabama vs. Kentucky odds, prediction: Why the Jaguars are the ultimate ugly underdog play. New York Post. https://nypost.com/2026/09/26/betting/south-alabama-vs-kentucky-odds-prediction-why-the-jaguars-are-the-ultimate-ugly-underdog-play/

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
26
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
4%
1 of 26 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
67/100
New York Post's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Sports
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-26 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

New York Post · 9988 article(s) · 30 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 30 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Michael Leboff
87 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Any slipup by Utah would derail what looks to be a really promising season at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
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🔮 There were plenty of people predicting that Bob Chesney would be the next Curt Cignetti, and so far those folks look pretty smart.
🔮 The record and resume may look worthy of the No. 1 ranking, but Texas’ statistical profile leaves something to be desired.
🔮 What our Post expert thinks about Week 6 Texas remains the No. 1 team in the country, but the winner of Alabama vs. Georgia on Saturday will have a legitimate claim to overtake that spot.
🔮 Will Stein’s Wildcats have already handed one season-wrecking loss to Texas A&M, and they’ll look to add another to their account with an upset over LSU.
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🔮 This will be the first real test for the Hoosiers in 2026, but it’s a tricky schedule spot for the defending champs, to boot.
🔮 After a decade of mediocrity and false promises, the Cornhuskers are undefeated after five games and can vault themselves into the College Football Playoff conversation with a win over No. 7 Indiana (5-0) on Saturday. It will be a rocking atmosphere at Memorial Stadium, but the Huskers will have to upset considerable odds to grab the biggest win for the program in a generation.
Also by Michael Leboff
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 87 articles by Michael Leboff →

Topics

FBS Jaguars Kentucky SEC Wildcats

Subjects

Kentucky GPE · 6× Applewhite PERSON · 3× Jaguars ORG · 3× South Alabama GPE · 3× Stein PERSON · 3× College Station GPE · 2× FBS ORG · 2× SEC ORG · 2× Wildcats ORG · 2× Roadrunners ORG · 1×

Narrative

There are more than enough signals pointing to South Alabama +20.5 in this matchup, and I wouldn’t be opposed to biting a small piece of the first-half moneyline, either. The Play: South Alabama +20.5 (-110, DraftKings) Why Trust New York Post Betting Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-26
🔮 Will Stein came to Kentucky with a blank slate and a plan.

Claims (26 extracted, 1 hedged)

Don’t let our “Ugly Underdogs'” get hot! asserted
Underdogs → let → ?
The Roadrunners of UTSA only managed six points against No. 1 Texas in Week 3, but that was enough to cover the 30.5-point spread in Austin. asserted
that → manage → Austin
We’ll run a similar playbook in Week 4 as we look to make it three wins in a row by fading another SEC team coming off a season-defining win in their last time out. asserted
it → run → time
Will Stein came to Kentucky with a blank slate and a plan. asserted
Stein → come → slate
After three years overseeing the offense at Oregon, Stein took over the main gig in Lexington after Mark Stoops’ 13-year tenure came to an end. asserted
tenure → oversee → end
It’s not easy to rebuild any FBS program these days, but it’s especially hard to do so after a long reign. asserted
it → ’ → reign
But Stein seems to know what he’s doing. asserted
he → seem → what
He completely revamped the offense and built it around former Notre Dame quarterback Kenny Minchey. asserted
He → revamp → Minchey
But for Minchey to succeed, he would need protection, so Stein and his staff went to work by putting together a beefy offensive line and backfield. asserted
Stein → succeed → line
Kentucky may not have the talent to overwhelm you, but the Wildcats will make you earn every blade of grass. uncertain
you → have → grass
Kentucky let a halftime lead slip away against Alabama, but the Wildcats responded with an SEC-shaking upset win over Texas A&M in College Station. asserted
Wildcats → let → Station
Instead of playing the role of underdog, which they are built for, Kentucky is a three-score favorite over Major Applewhite’s South Alabama Jaguars. asserted
Kentucky → play → Jaguars
As a head coach, it is your job to recruit and develop the best players you can, but the reality is that if they are too good, they will bolt for greener pastures. asserted
they → recruit → pastures
Applewhite knows this dance, as he’s seen quarterback Gio Lopez and running back Fluff Bothwell make their names in Mobile and then depart. asserted
Lopez → know → Mobile
But Applewhite’s ability to identify talent seems to be clicking again in 2026, particularly in the running game. asserted
ability → identify → game
Keenan Phillips (5.3 yards per carry, 1 touchdown), PJ Martin (4.1 YPC, 3 touchdowns), and Trae’Von Dunbar 5.5 YPC, 3 touchdowns) have breathed life into the Jaguars’ offense, and quarterback Bishop Davenport’s dual-threat ability only adds to the upside. asserted
ability → breathe → upside
With a hydra in the backfield, it’s no wonder that Applewhite has been happy to go old-school with his game plan this season. asserted
Applewhite → ’ → plan
South Alabama has averaged nearly 50 rushing attempts per game in 2026, and it plays at one of the slowest paces in the country (29.4 seconds per snap). asserted
it → average → snap
The Jags keep the clock moving, which is good news when you’re a big ‘dog. asserted
you → keep → ?
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps - Check out the best sports betting sites and apps This approach has paid off to the tune of a 2-1 record and an average of 6.5 yards per play (22nd in FBS), plus it helps ease the burden on a defense that has floundered through the first three weeks. asserted
that → get → weeks
Just like Kentucky, South Alabama is a team that is built to make life difficult on its opponents. asserted
life → build → opponents
The Jaguars are physical and happy to run the ball down your throat all while playing at their plodding pace, which makes them a tricky opponent to fade as a big underdog. asserted
them → run → underdog
And it’s not just the stylistic matchup that points in South Alabama’s favor. asserted
that → ’ → favor
Not only is it a potential letdown situation after their season-changing win in College Station, but they’ve got a trip to South Carolina and a visit from LSU on deck. asserted
they → change → deck
There are more than enough signals pointing to South Alabama +20.5 in this matchup, and I wouldn’t be opposed to biting a small piece of the first-half moneyline, either. The Play: South Alabama +20.5 (-110, DraftKings) Why Trust New York Post Betting Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. asserted
Leboff → be → industry
He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports. asserted
punters → love → sports
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