A new rebel alliance in Ethiopia, including groups from Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions, has formed with the aim of removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The alliance's strategic importance lies in northern Ethiopia’s proximity to Eritrea, facilitating support for their operations. Despite this development, divisions among some groups, like Oromo organizations, remain evident regarding full support for the coalition. This pattern reflects a recurring cycle where political dissatisfaction leads to armed conflict rather than peaceful resolution.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-25,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
The formation of a new armed alliance seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed follows a pattern that has plagued Ethiopia – an empire of many nations and nationalities still in the making – for decades.
asserted
that → seek → decades
Those in power leave little space for peaceful political struggle; the winner takes it all, so those who feel disadvantaged take up arms to change the status quo.
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who → leave → quo
Actors and alliances change over time, but violence remains the only constant.
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violence → change → time
The civil war in parts of Oromia has raged since Abiy took power in 2018, while the conflict in the Amhara region has raged since 2023.
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conflict → rag → 2023
In Tigray, the Pretoria agreement was never fully implemented.
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agreement → implement → Tigray
Although large-scale war had not resumed, the region had been under siege since a faction of the TPLF took power and escalated its confrontation with the federal government.
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faction → resume → government
Until the latest escalation, Abiy’s government had largely been content to control the centre of power while confronting rebels with drones and ground forces.
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government → control → drones
The government held national elections despite voting not taking place in Tigray and several other districts.
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voting → hold → Tigray
It formed the Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission in 2021, which concluded a national conference of about 4,000 participants in August, despite the absence of armed groups and other key opposition organisations.
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which → form → groups
At the same time, the government has continued to pursue major development projects.
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government → continue → projects
The newly elected parliament is due to open on October 5, when a new federal government will be constituted.
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government → elect → October
The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, announced on September 20, was not a surprise.
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Alliance → announce → September
It followed several months of coordination meetings among the groups, held in the presence of military and security representatives from Eritrea and Sudan.
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It → follow → Eritrea
It brings together the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and four movements from the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions.
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It → bring → regions
Despite the OLA’s participation, Oromo organisations and elites are divided in their support for the alliance.
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organisations → divide → alliance
The alliance aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establish an inclusive transition.
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alliance → aim → transition
Three of the seven organisations – the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front (ANURF) – have particular strategic importance.
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Three → have → importance
All three are in northern Ethiopia, which borders Eritrea, allowing continuous logistical support from there.
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which → border → support
Three days later, TPLF forces, allied with the ANURF, advanced into several districts in Zone 2 with little resistance.
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forces → ally → resistance
ANURF is led by Ibrahim Osman Aliyu, known as Haji Ibrahim, a respected figure from Berhale in Zone 2 and a relative of Ethiopia’s defence minister, Aisha Mohammed.
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ANURF → lead → minister
He defected to Eritrea last year with a contingent of Afar Special Forces and local forces.
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He → defect → Forces
In a message to the Afar people, he assured them that the current fighting was directed against the Prosperity Party, not the Afar people or fighter groups, and that services and public transport would continue unhindered.
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services → assure → Party
He advised Afar residents to join his forces or stay away from the fighting.
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He → advise → fighting
Their next target may be the vital highway linking Ethiopia to Djibouti.
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target → link → Djibouti
We have seen part of this story before, though this time the alliance took longer to form.
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alliance → see → story
In November 2021, nine opposition groups hastily announced the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces.
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groups → announce → Forces
Tigrayan forces and the OLA advanced towards Addis Ababa, while the alliance’s leaders spoke of dismantling Abiy’s government and installing a transitional authority.
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leaders → advance → authority
By January 2022, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front had left the united front, accusing the TPLF of killing Afar civilians.
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Front → leave → civilians
In December of the same year, the Benishangul People’s Liberation Movement signed a peace deal with the regional government.
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Movement → sign → government
The federal army counterattacked, Tigrayan forces withdrew from neighbouring regions and the TPLF eventually signed the 2022 Pretoria agreement with the government.
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TPLF → counterattack → government
That pact required the TPLF to stop supporting armed groups elsewhere in Ethiopia.
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pact → require → Ethiopia
The same pattern could repeat itself.
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pattern → repeat → itself
The lesson is not that 2026 will mirror 2021 exactly.
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2026 → mirror → 2021
The new alliance includes Fano, whose fighters stood with the federal government against the TPLF during the earlier war and now fight Abiy.
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fighters → include → Abiy
The government is also fighting on several fronts.
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government → fight → fronts
But the precedent shows how quickly a common enemy can stop being enough when battlefield fortunes change.
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fortunes → show → ?
Both Fano and the TPLF claim western Tigray, or what the Amhara call Wolgait-Tsegede.
uncertain
Amhara → claim → what
The founding statement offers no settlement.
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statement → offer → settlement
A Tigrayan leadership that abandons its claim risks alienating people displaced from their homes; a Fano leadership that concedes it risks losing the support of fighters for whom the territory is central.
uncertain
territory → abandon → whom
Calling the issue a matter for later negotiations buys time but does not create a compromise.
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Calling → call → compromise
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
