JPMorgan's commodities team has ceased providing baseline views on oil prices due to the unpredictable nature of the ongoing conflict in Iran. The lack of a clear resolution path from the White House, combined with recent military actions affecting key shipping routes and oil production cuts by Saudi Arabia, has rendered traditional modeling unreliable. This situation complicates forecasting for investors, businesses, and consumers facing higher gas prices. JPMorgan continues to publish estimates but acknowledges the challenges in predicting future oil market movements given current uncertainties.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-25,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
The conflict in Iran has not only driven up the price of oil – it has also made it next to impossible for Wall Street firms to forecast future crude costs, On The Money has learned.
asserted
Money → drive → costs
The commodities team at JPMorgan, one of the biggest players in the global oil markets, is telling clients it can no longer reliably model where crude prices go from here, according to reporting by Fox Business’s Teuta Dedvukaj.
uncertain
prices → tell → Dedvukaj
With the White House’s on-again, off-again Iran negotiations dragging into their seventh month, JPMorgan’s commodities team has abandoned its “baseline view” on oil prices, the benchmark targets that weigh various factors that influence oil markets.
“For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view.
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we → drag → view
We simply don’t know how to model the endgame,” JPMorgan commodities strategists told clients last Thursday in a conference call with a large institutional investor, according to a person at the confab.
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strategists → know → confab
The comments underscore just how tricky the conflict has become for investors trying to play the oil price swings, businesses seeking to hedge oil expenses and, of course, consumers getting squeezed by higher gas prices.
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conflict → underscore → prices
President Trump recently indicated he would be open to meet the president of Iran to end the hostilities – good news for consumers even if it underscores the problems with gauging future movements since such seemingly positive developments have sputtered repeatedly in the past.
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developments → indicate → past
“We assumed there were economic red lines the US administration would be unwilling to cross,” JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note to clients.
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strategists → assume → clients
“Six months later, many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more.”
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strategy → cross → lines
A JPM executive who is authorized to speak to the press tells On The Money: “We continue to publish estimates, but the research team wanted to acknowledge that the end game has become hard to model given the ongoing volatility and a wide range of potential outcomes.”
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game → authorize → outcomes
The continued conflict has throttled about a quarter of the world’s oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel that passes through Iranian territory.
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that → continue → territory
Saudi Arabia — the world’s second-largest oil producer (the US is No. 1, Russia No. 3) — has cut oil shipments to Europe after drone attacks damaged its key export pipeline to the Red Sea.
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attacks → cut → Sea
Messaging from the White House hasn’t helped.
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Messaging → help → House
Trump has repeatedly announced progress and near-deals to end the conflict – including the Islamic Republic giving up its nuclear program – only to reverse course.
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Republic → announce → course
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business → meet → inbox
Last Thursday, the president told Axios that he is weighing a major decision over the war, including whether to resume large-scale military operations against Iran or move toward eventually bringing the conflict to an end.
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he → tell → end
Without clear answers to such basic questions, oil prices, set in global commodities markets, are likely to get increasingly volatile.
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prices → set → markets
The pricing of Brent crude has been bouncing in a wide band.
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pricing → bounce → band
When war started back in February, it traded at around $72 then surged to roughly $126 in April.
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it → start → April
Prices fell toward $73 in June and have since climbed back to around $100 a barrel.
asserted
Prices → fall → 100
According to Dedvukaj’s reporting, JPMorgan believes the price shock from the lack of supply was offset somewhat by consumers cutting back on the use of petroleum products like gasoline.
uncertain
shock → accord → gasoline
The Aporia
