Overcrowding in UK’s A&E departments ‘increases risk of death’

Read the original at Evening Standard ↗
Evening Standard · collected 2026-09-24 · by Jane Kirby

Quick Summary

A study by Dr Ryan McHenry from the University of Glasgow links overcrowding in UK A&E departments to hundreds of deaths weekly. Analyzing data from over 19,000 adult patients across emergency departments in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland during a two-week period in March 2025, the research shows that for every 10% increase in occupancy, the likelihood of death within 28 days rises by 1%. The study found average department occupancy at 175%, indicating significant overcrowding. Dr McHenry estimates between 33 to 1,083 excess deaths weekly due to crowded conditions and corridor care, where patients are treated outside standard clinical spaces.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-25, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

A new study from Dr Ryan McHenry at the University of Glasgow links overcrowding in A&E departments to hundreds of deaths every week across England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The research, covering a two-week period in March 2025 and reflecting around 70% of emergency departments in these regions, found that for each 10% increase in occupancy, the chance of dying within 28 days rises by 1%. Dr McHenry stated that reducing overcrowding could potentially save lives. Additionally, Dr Felix Lorang, a member of the emergency medicine congress abstract selection committee, noted that many departments operate beyond capacity and that an 'exit block'—where patients are stuck due to a lack of inpatient beds—further exacerbates the issue. Dr McHenry estimated that around 550 deaths per week may be caused by overcrowding in these departments.

Written for “UK A&E Overcrowding Risk” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
24
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
8%
2 of 24 hedged
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Correction & hedging signals
67.5
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
2
Health
Narrative spread
2
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-25 · how these are computed

Story

📰 UK A&E Overcrowding Risk
Health · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Evening Standard · 1.00 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 8% hedged 2 of 24 📰 publisher trust 68
“Both articles report on the exact same study presented by Dr Ryan McHenry regarding overcrowding in UK A&E departments and its link to patient mortality, with identical details including dates and statistics.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 5% hedged 2 of 44 📰 publisher trust 61
“The articles describe different issues in healthcare settings, one about overcrowding and its link to increased mortality rates across multiple UK hospitals, and the other about staffing and funding shortages at a single new hospital in Australia.”

Publisher

Evening Standard · 3460 article(s) · 22 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 22 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Jane Kirby
9 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 He said around 550 deaths every week across all of England, Wales and Northern Ireland may be caused by overcrowding in emergency departments.
🔮 He said around 550 deaths every week across all of England, Wales and Northern Ireland may be caused by overcrowding in emergency departments.
🔮 “We are concerned that the NHS rollout remains extremely slow and community pharmacy is ready to support a wider rollout, which will help eligible patients access treatment safely and help mitigate the impact of obesity on the NHS.”
🔮 A board meeting of the trust next week will decide whether the review should be extended to review thousands more cases dating back to 2015.
🔮 A board meeting of the trust next week will decide whether the review should be extended to review thousands more cases dating back to 2015.
🔮 A board meeting of the trust next week will decide whether the review should be extended to review thousands more cases dating back to 2015.
🔮 A board meeting of the trust next week will decide whether the review should be extended to review thousands more cases dating back to 2015.
🔮 Experts already know that around a quarter of breast cancers could be prevented through healthy lifestyle changes, such as taking more exercise, maintaining a healthy weight and drinking less alcohol.
Also by Jane Kirby
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 9 articles by Jane Kirby →

Topics

England Northern Ireland Scotland Wales the University of Glasgow

Subjects

England GPE · 2× McHenry PERSON · 2× NHS ORG · 2× Northern Ireland GPE · 2× RCEM ORG · 2× Wales GPE · 2× Ryan McHenry PERSON · 1× Scotland GPE · 1× the Press Association ORG · 1× the University of Glasgow ORG · 1×

Narrative

Dr Felix Lorang, a member of the emergency medicine congress abstract selection committee, said: “Many emergency departments are operating far beyond capacity, and the ‘exit block’ — when patients are stuck in the emergency department because no inpatient ward beds are available – places an even greater burden on these emergency departments.
framing: assertive · carried by 2 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-25
🔮 He said around 550 deaths every week across all of England, Wales and Northern Ireland may be caused by overcrowding in emergency departments.
2026-09-25 · Evening Standard
Overcrowding in UK’s A&E departments ‘increases risk of death’ · assertive framing
2026-09-25 · Evening Standard
Overcrowding in UK’s A&E departments ‘increases risk of death’ · assertive framing

Claims (24 extracted, 2 hedged)

Overcrowding in A&E departments and corridor care is linked to hundreds of deaths every week in the UK, according to a new study. uncertain
Overcrowding → link → study
A review of more than 19,000 adult patients found that, for every 10% increase in emergency department occupancy, the chance of dying in the following 28 days rose by 1%. asserted
chance → find → %
Dr Ryan McHenry, from the University of Glasgow, and an emergency medicine doctor in the west of Scotland, presented the study, which took place across a two-week period in March 2025 and reflects around 70% of emergency departments in Wales, Northern Ireland and England. asserted
which → present → Wales
He said: “We found that increased crowding in emergency departments is associated with increased mortality for patients admitted to hospital. asserted
crowding → say → hospital
“This is important because we know that emergency departments are now often very crowded, and reducing that crowding has the real potential to save lives.” asserted
reducing → know → lives
Dr McHenry told the Press Association how hundreds of deaths were linked to busy A&E departments every week. asserted
hundreds → tell → departments
He said around 550 deaths every week across all of England, Wales and Northern Ireland may be caused by overcrowding in emergency departments. uncertain
deaths → say → departments
“Although we cover the majority of the emergency departments in the UK, this was still a relatively small study, and the possible range of expected deaths is therefore large; we estimate anywhere between 33 and 1,083 excess deaths are plausible,” he said. asserted
he → cover → deaths
For the research, occupancy was calculated by how many spaces, such as cubicles, the A&E department had compared with how many patients were being treated. asserted
patients → calculate → cubicles
Results indicated that, on average, emergency departments were operating at 175% occupancy, a marker of overcrowding. asserted
departments → indicate → overcrowding
Dr McHenry and his colleagues also looked at the impact of “corridor care” where patients receive treatment in non-standard clinical spaces such as corridors. asserted
patients → look → corridors
This was also linked to an increase in the risk of deaths at a similar rate as overcrowding, although the team said occupancy rate was much easier to measure and record. asserted
rate → link → overcrowding
Dr Felix Lorang, a member of the emergency medicine congress abstract selection committee, said: “Many emergency departments are operating far beyond capacity, and the ‘exit block’ — when patients are stuck in the emergency department because no inpatient ward beds are available – places an even greater burden on these emergency departments. asserted
beds → say → departments
“This makes it harder for doctors and nurses to deliver the treatment patients need, or even the minimum treatment required to prevent further harm. asserted
patients → make → harm
“This research makes it unmistakably clear to all of us – patients, medical professionals, and hospital managers alike – that overcrowding and corridor care mean many emergency patients will not survive.” asserted
patients → make → us
Dr Ian Higginson, president of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM), said: “People are dying in association with overcrowding in emergency departments. asserted
People → say → departments
“This should be cause for alarm among policymakers, and yet we are not seeing any urgency.” asserted
we → see → urgency
He said the findings “add yet more evidence about this utterly normalised and unacceptable state of affairs”. asserted
findings → say → affairs
Dr Higginson added: “RCEM continues to call for the governments of the four UK nations to act to address the catastrophic effect overcrowding and long waits in our emergency departments on our patients – who are suffering harm and will continue to do so because of a failure to act. asserted
who → add → failure
“They must also recognise the impact that working in such conditions have on staff, who we risk losing in droves should the problem persist.” asserted
problem → recognise → droves
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “The NHS faced the busiest summer in its history this year, but thanks to the incredible work of NHS staff, 75% of people in A&E were seen in four hours in August. asserted
% → say → August
“Overcrowding can have a serious impact on patients’ experience and safety, which is why we are taking urgent action to reduce pressure on emergency departments and end corridor care. asserted
we → have → care
“We know there is much more to do to reduce pressures on A&E departments, which is why we’re going further and faster to improve emergency care, deploying expert teams into the most challenged trusts and investing more than £1.5 billion in hospital buildings and facilities to help them withstand year-round pressure. asserted
them → know → pressure
“And by shifting more care into the community, we are helping people to get the care they need closer to home.” asserted
they → shift → home
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