Primaries in the Midwest have become a high stakes proving ground for progressives
asserted
Primaries → become → progressives
The Democratic primary for Michigan's 7th Congressional District puts the high stakes for the party in the midterm elections on full display.
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primary → put → display
The district is one of just 18 toss-up districts, making the Republican-held seat a top target for Democrats trying to retake the House.
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seat → toss → House
That's why it has attracted candidates including a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, a retired Navy Seal and William Lawrence, a co-founder of the climate activist group the Sunshine Movement.
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it → attract → group
Lawrence thinks his outsider approach and willingness to criticize his own party is just what this competitive district needs to win in November.
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district → think → November
"What I hear is people are fed up," Lawrence said in an interview with NPR.
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Lawrence → hear → NPR
"They're ready for change and they don't feel that either party has been representing their interests in DC."
This year, far left challengers have notched upset wins against Democratic incumbents in deep blue congressional districts from New York to Colorado.
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challengers → feel → Colorado
That brand of progressive politics is about to get its biggest test yet, in midwestern swing states and competitive districts that could decide control of Congress.
uncertain
that → get → Congress
Democrats voting in primaries this month in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota are wrestling with a question that has divided the party going back at least to 2016.
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that → vote → 2016
It's about who has a better shot of winning in purple states and toss-up districts: a populist progressive outsider or a moderate favored by the Democratic establishment.
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who → win → establishment
Lawrence, whose campaign is centered on the economy, opposing AI data centers and keeping money at home instead of funding foreign wars, argues that the conventional wisdom about moderation being the key to electability is all wrong.
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moderation → center → electability
"I believe that the status quo is an electability risk at a time when people are hungry for change," said Lawrence.
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Lawrence → believe → change
Primary election voters are only a small motivated subset of those who will vote in November.
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who → vote → November
Voters are angry and incumbents are facing significant opposition.
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incumbents → face → opposition
"Democratic voters are really rejecting people who reek of playing it safe," said Lis Smith, a Democratic consultant who has worked with candidates in Michigan.
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who → reject → Michigan
She says voters appear willing to take a risk on candidates whose public statements and policy positions could be liabilities in a general election.
uncertain
statements → say → election
"It seems like that is a tradeoff that Democratic primary voters in places like Michigan are willing to accept," Smith said.
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Smith → seem → Michigan
"When people are angry, sometimes they go with their heart over their head.
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they → go → head
And the reality is none of us know how it's going to play out in November," she added.
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she → know → November
Since 2016, Michigan has proven to be an ultimate swing state.
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Michigan → prove → 2016
The current Democratic senator is retiring this year and if Democrats have any hope of taking control of the Senate, they need to keep Michigan in their column.
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they → retire → column
Primary polls show former public health official Abdul El-Sayed in the lead.
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polls → show → lead
The other candidate in the race is four-term Rep. Haley Stevens, who is favored by the party establishment.
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who → favor → establishment
Recent polls have shown her with a better chance of winning in the general election in November.
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polls → show → November
Establishment Democrats say nominating El-Sayed is too much of a risk because some of his positions could be painted as extreme.
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some → say → positions
It all makes Neera Tanden at the Center for American Progress nervous.
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Tanden → make → Progress
She notes far left candidates have proven quite effective at defeating incumbent Democrats in blue states where there's little risk of a competitive general election vote.
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candidates → note → vote
"The real question in swing states is can they beat Republicans, which heretofore has been untested," said Tanden.
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Tanden → beat → Republicans
But those in the insurgent wing of the party say playing it safe is the real electability problem.
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playing → say → it
"Those who are nervous are operating off of very outdated conventional wisdom," said Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee.
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Green → operate → Committee
He thinks this race could influence who Democrats will feel comfortable nominating for president in 2028.
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Democrats → think → 2028
"If Abdul wins the primary, it sends shockwaves across the Democratic party and makes clear that you can buck the corporate interests and still defeat them," Green predicted.
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Green → win → them
"And then if he wins the general election it sends a signal to scared, well-meaning, electability voters that someone who actually inspires them can win a swing state."
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who → win → state
He describes this as a "chips on the table" moment, because if progressive candidates in swing states end up losing that could deal a blow to their argument about electability.
uncertain
that → describe → electability
With voter anger at the political system palpable, he says it would be a mistake to bet against outsider candidates who tap into those feelings.
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who → say → feelings
Former Rep. Peter Meijer, a Republican from Michigan, agrees with the sentiment, even if he disagrees with their progressive politics.
"
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he → agree → politics
They are ascendant," Meijer said of the insurgent Democrats.
asserted
Meijer → say → Democrats
"And everybody else is just scrambling to figure out how not to get left behind."
In part, he says, it's because these candidates stand for something more than simply opposing President Trump at a time when it's becoming clear Democrats can't just "coast on the fumes" of anti-Trump anger.
asserted
Democrats → scramble → anger
"The enthusiasm in the primaries, Donald Trump's name is barely coming up," Meijer noted.
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Meijer → come → primaries
In neighboring Wisconsin, Francesca Hong, who previously aligned with the Democratic Socialists of America, has what appears to be a commanding lead in the gubernatorial primary.
asserted
what → neighbor → primary
…and 8 more, not listed.
The Aporia
