Italy's national statistics bureau ISTAT has projected that the country's population will shrink by almost 4 million by 2050, falling to 55 million from 58.9 million at the start of 2025. According to these projections, deaths will rise while births will remain stable until 2030 before falling to around 335,000 per year by 2050. The proportion of elderly Italians is expected to jump to 34.5% in 2050 from 24.7% in 2025, posing challenges to Italy's economic and welfare systems. ISTAT notes that the demographic decline will be uneven across the country, with poorer southern Italy suffering the steepest losses.
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Italy's population is projected to shrink by almost 4 million by 2050, according to a report by national statistics bureau ISTAT. This decline will be driven by a combination of low birth rates and increasing deaths, particularly among the large post-war baby boom generation that is now reaching old age. By 2080, Italy's population is expected to drop to 45.8 million from a projected 55 million in 2050. The share of Italians aged 65 or over will increase to 34.5% by 2050, posing significant challenges for the country's economy and welfare system. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni had previously prioritized boosting birth rates, but her efforts have so far produced limited results. Births in Italy have been steadily declining since 2008, falling to a record low of around 355,000 last year, while deaths are projected to rise to a peak of 869,000 in 2058**.
Written for “Italy's Population Projection” on 2026-08-31,
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Italy's population will shrink by almost 4 million by 2050, undermining the sustainability of its economy and welfare system as the proportion of elderly people increases, national statistics bureau ISTAT warned on Monday.
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bureau → shrink → Monday
In new demographic projections extending to 2080, ISTAT said Italy's resident population would fall to 55 million in 2050 from 58.9 million at the start of 2025, before dropping to 45.8 million by 2080.
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population → extend → 2080
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said when she took office in 2022 that boosting the birth rate would be a government priority, but her efforts have produced scant results.
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efforts → say → results
Births have declined steadily since 2008 and fell last year to around 355,000, the lowest number since Italy's unification in 1861, while deaths have risen as the population ages.
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population → decline → 1861
ISTAT said annual births would now remain broadly stable until 2030, before falling to 335,000 by 2050.
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births → say → 2050
Deaths were projected to rise from about 652,000 last year to a peak of 869,000 in 2058 as Italy's large post-war baby boom generation reaches old age.
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generation → project → age
The share of Italians aged 65 or over is expected to jump to 34.5% in 2050 from 24.7% in 2025, while the proportion of people of working age, defined as 15 to 64 years old, will fall to 55.3% from 63.4%.
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proportion → age → %
A shrinking pool of workers and a surging number of pensioners will pose "new challenges to the economic system and welfare," ISTAT noted.
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ISTAT → shrink → system
Poorer southern Italy was forecast to suffer the steepest losses, with its population falling from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million in 2050, while central and northern regions will see a more modest decline.
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regions → forecast → decline
Meanwhile Italy said it will extend for a further 15 days a suspension of the European Union's border-free arrangements with Spain which was due to expire on Monday, a government statement said.
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statement → say → Monday
Rome suspended the Schengen arrangements with Madrid for one month on July 31, in response to a mass influx of migrants into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta from neighbouring Morocco.
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Rome → suspend → Morocco
