Bass trailing progressive challenger by double digits in new LA mayoral poll

Read the original at Washington Examiner ↗
Washington Examiner · collected 2026-09-23 · by Emily Hallas

Quick Summary

A new poll shows Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass trailing Councilwoman Nithya Raman by 11% among likely voters as the November election approaches, with 39% supporting Raman compared to 28% for Bass. The survey, conducted between September 15 and 20 by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, highlights Bass's challenges following criticism over her handling of recent wildfires that killed 31 people and caused significant damage. Approximately one-third of voters remain undecided, potentially offering a path to victory for Bass if she can sway these undecided voters.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-23, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

Karen Bass, the incumbent mayor of Los Angeles, is trailing Nithya Raman by 11% in a new poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and cosponsored by the Los Angeles Times. The survey, which polled 2,150 likely voters online from September 15 to 20, showed that 39% support Raman while 28% back Bass. Notably, about one-third of voters are still undecided, a rare occurrence this close to election day. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, noted that such high numbers of undecided voters make it unusual and leaves room for Bass to potentially narrow or even reverse her deficit in the November 3 election. This poll comes amid criticism of Bass's handling of recent devastating fires in Los Angeles that caused billions in damage and killed 31 people.

Written for “LA Mayoral Poll Results” on 2026-10-14, grounded in this article and the 1 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 LA Mayoral Poll Results
Politics · 2 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 29% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Daily Mail · 0.88 cosine similarity
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 16% hedged 5 of 31 📰 publisher trust 64
“Both articles report on the same poll released by UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, detailing Nithya Raman's lead over Karen Bass in the LA mayoral race.”
New York Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 2 of 12 📰 publisher trust 67
“The articles describe different aspects of the election (polling results and fundraising totals) at distinct times, not the same specific incident.”

Cite this article

Hallas, E. (2026, September 23). Bass trailing progressive challenger by double digits in new LA mayoral poll. Washington Examiner. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/state/4739324/karen-bass-trail-nithya-raman-la-mayor-poll-unusual-one-third-undecided/

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
17
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
29%
5 of 17 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
68/100
Washington Examiner's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
2
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-23 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Washington Examiner · 2677 article(s) · 5 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 5 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Emily Hallas
60 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
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Also by Emily Hallas
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 60 articles by Emily Hallas →

Topics

California DSA Los Angeles the Los Angeles Times the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies

Subjects

Bass PERSON · 8× Raman PERSON · 7× Los Angeles GPE · 3× the Los Angeles Times ORG · 3× DSA ORG · 2× California GPE · 1× Karen Bass PERSON · 1× Mark DiCamillo PERSON · 1× Nithya Raman PERSON · 1× the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies ORG · 1×

Narrative

Still, roughly one-third of voters remain undecided, signaling Bass holds a key path to claiming a second term. “It’s extraordinarily unusual to see this many undecided voters at this point in the race,” Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, told the Los Angeles Times.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-23
🔮 Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is trailing Councilwoman Nithya Raman by a significant margin with just weeks to go until the November election, according to a poll released Wednesday.
2026-09-23 · Washington Examiner
Bass trailing progressive challenger by double digits in new LA mayoral poll · mixed framing

Claims (17 extracted, 5 hedged)

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is trailing Councilwoman Nithya Raman by a significant margin with just weeks to go until the November election, according to a poll released Wednesday. uncertain
Bass → trail → poll
The incumbent mayor of California’s largest city is trailing Raman, who is running to the left of Bass, by 11%, according to the poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, which was cosponsored by the Los Angeles Times. uncertain
which → trail → Times
Of those surveyed, 39% of likely LA voters backed Raman, compared with 28% for Bass. asserted
% → survey → Bass
Still, roughly one-third of voters remain undecided, signaling Bass holds a key path to claiming a second term. “It’s extraordinarily unusual to see this many undecided voters at this point in the race,” Mark DiCamillo, the director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, told the Los Angeles Times. asserted
DiCamillo → remain → Times
“Raman clearly has the advantage. asserted
Raman → have → advantage
The challenging political cycle for Bass comes after she faced intense criticism over her handling of the brutal Palisades fires that swept Los Angeles in early 2025, causing billions in damage, torching thousands of structures, and killing 31 people. asserted
that → come → people
The disaster triggered debate over why some of the state’s largest water reservoirs sat empty when the fires started and why the city’s fire department had its budget cut shortly before the crisis. asserted
budget → trigger → crisis
The latest poll indicates 56% of likely voters believe Bass did a poor or very poor job responding to the disaster. asserted
Bass → indicate → disaster
Scrutiny of Bass’s leadership heightened again earlier this year, when an investigation suggested she worked to downplay criticism about the city’s response to the deadly fires in an official report on the disaster. uncertain
she → heighten → disaster
The controversies, among others, have provided Raman a path to wage a formidable and unexpected challenge to the woman she once considered a close ally and endorsed for mayor. asserted
she → provide → mayor
If elected, Raman could be the latest political figure to push socialist-leaning policies in major cities. uncertain
Raman → elect → cities
The progressive councilwoman is endorsed by the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America ahead of her Nov. 3 runoff election against Bass. asserted
councilwoman → endorse → Bass
One of the DSA’s objectives in Los Angeles is to “expand noncitizen voting in all local elections.” asserted
One → expand → elections
Raman was among the 10 council members who voted in June to start a charter change that would later allow some noncitizens to vote in city and school board races, according to Westside Current. uncertain
noncitizens → vote → Current
“I see the DSA as a partner for a lot of the work that we’ve done,” Raman told the Los Angeles Times earlier this month, adding that she works with “many, many other organizations” across the city. asserted
she → see → city
The latest survey on the mayoral race was conducted online with a sample of 2,150 likely city voters between Sept. 15 and Sept. 20. asserted
survey → conduct → Sept.
It has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points. asserted
It → have → points
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