Ukrainian intelligence said Moscow has already decided to call up 300,000 this year and 300,000 in 2027, driven by massive losses and a collapse in voluntary recruitment.
asserted
Moscow → say → recruitment
Kyiv expects the announcement to come after September's elections.
asserted
announcement → expect → elections
Russia is preparing to mobilise 600,000 additional soldiers over 2026 and 2027, Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate and Foreign Intelligence Service said, as mounting losses at the front and a collapse in voluntary recruitment push Moscow toward a second formal wave of conscription.
asserted
losses → prepare → conscription
Ukrainian intelligence said Russia planned to call up 300,000 this year and another 300,000 in 2027, and that the Russian leadership had already made the decision.
asserted
leadership → say → decision
Kyiv said the trigger was a combination of heavy battlefield losses, a loss of military initiative and a sharp fall in voluntary contract signings in its ongoing all-out war against Ukraine.
asserted
trigger → say → Ukraine
Ukraine's General Staff said total Russian losses since the February 2022 full-scale invasion had exceeded 1.4 million killed and wounded.
asserted
losses → say → million
In the first half of 2026 alone, Ukrainian intelligence estimated Russia lost around 240,000 troops, of whom 140,000 were killed or severely wounded.
asserted
140,000 → estimate → whom
In the same period, 232,000 people signed contracts with the Russian armed forces.
asserted
people → sign → forces
CIA director John Ratcliffe said in July that the average Russian recruit was killed or wounded on the battlefield within 20 to 30 minutes of arrival at the front.
asserted
recruit → say → front
The recruitment pool has narrowed sharply.
asserted
pool → narrow → ?
Compared with 2025, the number of debtors, prisoners, migrants and others who had formed the main pool of voluntary recruits had fallen by 30 to 40% across several Russian regions, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
uncertain
who → compare → intelligence
In Kurgan region, monthly recruitment targets have been met at 57 to 69% of the goal since the start of the year.
asserted
targets → meet → year
In Volgograd region, the number of potential recruits had fallen 40% year on year.
asserted
number → fall → year
Efforts to recruit students into the armed forces had also failed.
asserted
Efforts → recruit → forces
Internal Russian documents, cited by Ukrainian intelligence, justified the need for new mobilisation by pointing to rising public dissatisfaction with the war — reaching as high as 69% in some regions — and the resulting decline in voluntary enlistment.
asserted
documents → cite → enlistment
To prepare the legal ground, Russia has expanded eligibility for military recruitment.
asserted
Russia → prepare → recruitment
People with unexpunged criminal convictions under 11 additional articles of the criminal code can now be called up, including those convicted of smuggling weapons, drugs or radioactive substances, banditry and organising illegal migration.
asserted
People → call → migration
Russian authorities are also reportedly considering recruiting certain categories of convicted women.
uncertain
authorities → consider → women
An electronic summons system is already operational: once a citizen is entered in the registry they are barred from leaving the country, taking out loans, buying or selling property, using a driving licence or registering as a self-employed entrepreneur.
asserted
they → enter → entrepreneur
As of late July, more than 2,500 new vacancies related to mobilisation activities had been posted on Russian employment platforms, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
uncertain
vacancies → relate → intelligence
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he expects the decision to be announced after Russian State Duma elections scheduled for 18-20 September.
asserted
decision → say → September
Then come the 'elections' in Russia.
asserted
elections → come → Russia
We are certain that after the 'elections' they will have a mobilisation.
asserted
they → have → mobilisation
We believe it will not take place in the central cities.
asserted
it → believe → cities
But I don't think they will be able to hide it particularly well," he said last week.
asserted
he → think → it
Zelenskyy described the approach as a "peripheral mobilisation" targeted primarily at Russia's regions rather than Moscow and other major cities.
asserted
Zelenskyy → describe → Moscow
Russia announced "partial" mobilisation on 21 September 2022.
asserted
Russia → announce → September
No official decree ending it has ever been issued, meaning the legal framework for conscription has technically remained in place for four years.
asserted
framework → end → years
The Aporia
