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The article discusses the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election in London, where Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali is favored but the race remains unpredictable due to strong candidates from other parties. Zack Polanski of the Green Party is considered a significant challenger, appealing to progressive voters and aiming to push Labour further left. Additionally, George Galloway’s candidacy for the Worker's Party could affect the outcome by attracting radical Left votes, potentially influencing the tight race. Political analysts suggest that while Abdi-Wali remains the favorite, Polanski has a plausible path to victory depending on voter turnout and momentum in the final days before polling.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-23,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Story summary
In the upcoming Holborn by-election, Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali is favored to win according to bookmakers. However, political analysts are uncertain about a potential upset from Zack Polanski, a high-profile Green Party challenger. Keiran Pedley of Ipsos UK notes that voters in this progressive constituency might see supporting the Greens as a way to push Labour further left. The key question is whether these voters will back Polanski or if they'll opt for Andy Burnham’s recent surge in popularity, which could benefit Labour. With a significant student population, the election remains unpredictable, despite Abdi-Wali being the bookmakers' favorite.
Written for “British Politics Election Race” on 2026-10-05,
grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
As by-elections go, Britain has been spoilt in the last year-and-a-half.
asserted
Britain → go → year
Not to be outdone, Mr Farage resigned as Clacton MP, amid a growing storm over his and Reform’s financial affairs, sparking a by-election in August which he won comfortably in a bizarre two-horse race, which made global news, against Count Binface.
asserted
which → outdo → Binface
Bookies have Labour’s candidate, Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali, as firm favourite but by-elections are notoriously difficult to predict and political experts are divided over the likelihood of a Labour win.
asserted
experts → have → win
Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos UK, sounded an optimistic note for the Greens.
asserted
Pedley → sound → Greens
Stressing that Mr Polanski is a “high-profile challenger”, he said: “This is a constituency dominated by progressive voters, with a sizeable student population, and Polanski is unlikely to have run unless he believed there was a genuine opportunity.
asserted
he → stress → population
“He may not be the favourite, but he certainly has a plausible path to making this a real contest and could win.”
uncertain
this → have → path
He added: “The key question is whether progressive voters in this seat buy the argument that backing the Greens is the most effective way to push Labour further to the Left or if Andy Burnham’s recent bounce in the polls ultimately carries Labour through.”
asserted
bounce → add → Labour
Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher in British Politics at the Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London, believes Mr Polanski’s “personal appeal” may boost votes for the Green Party but that winning is still likely to be an “uphill struggle” for him.
uncertain
winning → believe → him
"Labour's Abdi-Wali is a fairly strong favourite for the Holborn & St Pancras by-election but Polanski isn't out of it,” he said.
asserted
he → say → it
“Even at their polling peak this would not have been a top target for the Greens who are stronger a bit further to the East and the Greens poll numbers have dipped considerably since Burnham replaced Starmer.”
asserted
Burnham → dip → Starmer
Dr Kelly explained: “The presence of George Galloway on the ballot for the Worker's Party should also take some of the radical Left vote, but his appeal is unlikely to be as strong in Central London as in de-industrialised parts of the North.
asserted
appeal → explain → North
“His support in Glasgow cratered to 0.4% this year which might be a better indicator than his 2024 performance in Rochdale (when he was elected the MP).
uncertain
he → cratere → Rochdale
Even so, elections can be won by small margins.
asserted
elections → win → margins
Money clearly points towards a Labour win but if Mr Polanski can gain momentum in the days ahead of polling, the contest could still be close.
uncertain
contest → point → polling
If it is, then the votes which Mr Galloway may pick up, which are expected to be at least in the hundreds, if not a few thousands, could prove to be a decisive factor.
uncertain
which → pick → hundreds
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