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Wars often begin with a simple miscalculation.
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Wars → see → miscalculation
In 1914 the Kaiser assumed Britain would remain neutral if Germany invaded Belgium.
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Germany → assume → Belgium
Prime Minister Herbert Asquith pledged Brussels the Empire’s ‘whole-hearted and unfailing support’ and led us into the Great War which killed three-quarters of a million Britons.
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which → pledge → Britons
Over 100 years later, Vladimir Putin is on the brink of his own catastrophic miscalculation – one that could trigger Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and tip Europe towards World War III.
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that → trigger → III
Ever since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, the continent has watched with dread as Putin has honed his expansionist ambitions.
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Putin → annex → ambitions
This gave way to panic among the bureaucrats when the Kremlin’s dreams of imperial glory led to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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dreams → give → 2022
But make no mistake, the Russian tanks will not stop at Kyiv.
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tanks → make → Kyiv
Indeed, a leaked Kremlin 2023 memo outlined plans for the annexation of Russian ally Belarus by 2030.
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memo → leak → 2030
Vladimir Putin might be 73 years old but he still fancies himself as a dynamic wartime leader in the mould of Peter The Great or Ivan The Terrible.
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he → fancy → Peter
Having watched the dictator for the past 30 years, I am in no doubt he hopes to echo the achievements of his predecessors by expanding the Russian borders further into Eastern Europe, with its strong Russian cultural heritage.
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he → watch → heritage
Putin, in other words, is now an old man in a hurry and I fear he is on the cusp of ordering a miscalculated escalation that could plunge Europe, as Churchill once said, into a new Dark Age.
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Churchill → fear → Age
Vladimir Putin is on the brink of his own catastrophic miscalculation – one that could tip Europe towards World War III, writes Mark Almond
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that → tip → III
Ukrainian firefighters work at the site of a Russian strike on a shopping mall in a residential area in Dnipro, Ukraine this month
Three things are happening that make me believe the Russian leader is preparing further military action that could inadvertently trigger Article 5 – the Nato clause that states that any attack on a member nation is an attack against the whole.
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attack → work → whole
First, there is credible evidence Moscow is planning a significant further mobilisation of troops.
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Moscow → be → troops
Last month, Ukraine’s President Zelensky warned Russia was planning a ‘rapid mobilisation’ of some 300,000 men by the end of the year.
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Russia → warn → year
In the last week of August, at least 113,000 Russian citizens fled the country through the so-called Upper Lars checkpoint into Georgia, likely dodging this impending draft.
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citizens → flee → draft
The Kremlin has meanwhile ordered Army generals to increase data collection on reservists, including their whereabouts and readiness to fight.
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Kremlin → order → whereabouts
A draft bill has also been proposed, fining Russian companies up to a million rubles (£9,000) for ‘failing to support the war effort’ or ‘impeding mobilisation’.
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bill → propose → mobilisation
Second – and chillingly – last weekend, Russia’s Federal Security Service imposed restrictions on movement in two areas along the country’s border with Estonia, including a night-time curfew.
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Service → impose → curfew
They are also said to be fortifying the bank of the Narva River marking the border.
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They → say → border
This suggests preparations for a land invasion of this Nato state.
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This → suggest → state
On top of that, much of it is Russian-speaking and its borderlands retain a strong Soviet nostalgia.
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borderlands → speak → nostalgia
Yes, Estonia has been a part of Nato since 2004, but would its allies really go to war with Russia for it?
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allies → go → it
Would the men of Nuremberg, Nantes or Nottingham risk their lives for the villagers of Vasknarva or Lutepaa?
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men → risk → Vasknarva
Third, last week, close Russian ally Belarus launched a major four-day military exercise near its borders with Poland and Lithuania, including tank battalions.
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Belarus → launch → battalions
The drills took place near the strategically crucial 25-mile Suwalki Gap.
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drills → take → Gap
Crossing Lithuanian and Polish territory, this is the shortest route between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic coast.
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this → cross → coast
If Putin could seize the Gap, it would be disastrous for the Baltic States who –thereby cut off from the rest of the continent – would be sitting ducks for the Russian military machine.
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who → seize → machine
On top of these Belarusian drills, earlier this month Moscow allegedly flew a drone across the Gap into Kaliningrad, in an apparent attempt to survey Nato air defences.
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Moscow → fly → defences
The direction of travel seems all too clear.
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direction → seem → travel
The question for Andy Burnham and other Nato leaders, then, is whether or not any of these actual or potential incursions meet the threshold for triggering Article 5.
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any → meet → Article
And, more to the point, whether Western Europe has the means to triumph in a clash with Moscow and its allies
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Europe → have → Moscow
To his immense discredit, Donald Trump has long cosied up to the repulsive Putin.
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Trump → cosie → Putin
With the US President’s foolish war in the Middle East proving hard to stop, he is unlikely to embroil American troops in further escalations in Europe, especially for a perceived ‘minor’ incursion by Russia into the Baltics.
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he → prove → Baltics
Knowing this, other European countries have signified their readiness to act.
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countries → know → readiness
Last Friday, French President Macron held a successful cross-party summit to build consensus on a plan in the event of war between Europe and Russia.
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Macron → hold → Europe
Yet while France is also mobilising aggressively, Britain sits on its derriere.
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Britain → mobilise → derriere
Just three months ago, then-Defence Secretary John Healey resigned over failures to boost military spending to three per cent of GDP.
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Healey → resign → GDP
Now promoted to Chancellor, Healey looks set to fall short of that mark again.
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Healey → promote → mark
Members of an electoral commission wait for voters, sitting under portraits of Vladimir Putin and Denis Pushilin, the installed leader of the Russian-controlled parts of the Donetsk region
For Britain, the real challenge will not be boldly answering the call to Article 5 and coming to the aid of the Baltic states but rather if we have the capabilities to do anything to help them in the first place.
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we → wait → place
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
