Lose to win: How the Tempo's final two games could boost their odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 WNBA draft

Read the original at Toronto Star ↗
Toronto Star · collected 2026-09-22 · by Libaan Osman

Quick Summary

The Toronto Tempo could improve their chances of securing the No. 1 pick in the 2027 WNBA draft by losing their final two games, which would put them ahead or tied with the Connecticut Sun for the best odds. Currently, the Tempo have a .262 winning percentage (11-31 record), while the Sun’s two-year cumulative record is .244 (21-65). The draft lottery system considers teams' records over the past two seasons but allows expansion teams like Toronto to be evaluated based solely on their current season. If both teams finish with identical winning percentages, tiebreaking rules will determine who gets a better chance in the lottery.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-22, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

The Toronto Tempo lost their final two games of the season: first to the Chicago Sky by a score of 97-85, then to the Connecticut Sun in Connecticut's last home game before moving to Houston. These losses could put them in prime position for the top pick in the 2027 WNBA draft. The Tempo have dropped seven straight games and now stand at 11-31. Despite this poor form, their record gives them a high chance of landing one of the top picks in next year's lottery. Teams can't drop more than two spots from where they'd be based on win-loss records alone, so Toronto is guaranteed no worse than a fourth overall pick. This could dramatically alter the future direction of the team as it aims to draft standout college players like Juju Watkins or Hannah Hidalgo.

Written for “WNBA Draft Odds TempoSquared” on 2026-10-05, grounded in this article and the 2 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
24
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
12%
3 of 24 hedged
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Correction & hedging signals
63.3
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
3
Sports
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-22 · how these are computed

Story

📰 WNBA Draft Odds TempoSquared
Sports · 3 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 12% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 8 📰 publisher trust 63
“Both articles describe the same game between Chicago Sky and Toronto Tempo on September 23, 2026.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 23 📰 publisher trust 63
“Both articles describe the final game between the Toronto Tempo and Connecticut Sun on September 25, 2026.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 6% hedged 2 of 33 📰 publisher trust 63
“Article A describes the actual game results of Toronto Tempo's last home game against New York Liberty on September 21st, while Article B discusses the potential impact of losing their final two games (including the one mentioned in Article A) on draft odds.”
New York Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 6% hedged 1 of 17 📰 publisher trust 64
“The articles describe different upcoming games involving distinct teams, not the same specific event.”

Publisher

Toronto Star · 5260 article(s) · 17 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 17 correction(s)
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Who wrote this

Libaan Osman
7 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 All eyes were on Kawhi Leonard at Raptors media day, but other topics came up that will play a big part to how the season develops.
🔮 The Tempo have building blocks, with most of the roster expected to return, and will add more young talent in the draft.
🔮 The Toronto Tempo have a shot at a franchise-altering draft pick — and losing their final two games of the season could be their biggest wins of the season.
🔮 With two games left, the Tempo could still improve their chances for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.
🔮 During the Raptors’ years of playoff heartbreak, no one would listen when he preached that the star point guard was a one-of-a-kind player.
🔮 The parents of soon-to-be nine-year-old Tenley Schefski informed the child they would be making the four-hour-plus drive to watch her favourite player up close for her birthday.
🔮 Long before Barnes became the NBA’s rookie of the year, a two-time all-star and an all-defensive second team player, he was asked if he could pick one teammate in the pros, who would it be? “The defensive presence that he can bring … and I like to play defence so it would just carry over,” Barnes said back in 2019.
Also by Libaan Osman
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 7 articles by Libaan Osman →

Topics

Connecticut Tempo The Toronto Tempo Toronto WNBA

Subjects

Toronto GPE · 6× WNBA ORG · 5× Connecticut GPE · 4× Tempo ORG · 3× Star ORG · 2× Juju Watkins PERSON · 1× The Toronto Tempo ORG · 1× USC ORG · 1× the Chicago Sky ORG · 1× the Connecticut Sun ORG · 1×

Narrative

If there is an odd number of combinations, the team that loses the tiebreaker (for example, has the worst 2026 record), would get the extra combination and be slotted above the other team should neither be selected in the lottery.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-22
🔮 The Toronto Tempo have a shot at a franchise-altering draft pick — and losing their final two games of the season could be their biggest wins of the season.

Claims (24 extracted, 3 hedged)

The Toronto Tempo have a shot at a franchise-altering draft pick — and losing their final two games of the season could be their biggest wins of the season. uncertain
losing → have → season
If the Tempo lose their last two games against the Chicago Sky and the Connecticut Sun, it could push them into having the best odds at the No. 1 pick in the 2027 WNBA draft — or into a tiebreak with Connecticut — in a class that some consider a three-way race between college basketball stars Juju Watkins of USC, Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo and Texas’ Madison Booker. uncertain
some → lose → USC
The league confirmed to the Star that as in previous years, teams can’t drop more than two slots in the lottery, which means that Toronto will have at least a top-four pick. asserted
Toronto → confirm → pick
The Tempo’s inaugural season has been riddled with injuries, causing the team to fall to the bottom of the standings in the second half of the season. asserted
team → riddle → season
Once hovering around a .500 record in late June, they’ve lost 20 of their past 22 games. asserted
they → hover → games
How the lottery works Lottery odds are based on the cumulative records of the past two WNBA regular seasons for the seven teams that do not make the playoffs. asserted
that → work → playoffs
The teams with the worst two-year winning percentage have the highest odds for the top pick. asserted
teams → have → pick
Since Toronto and Portland are expansion teams in their first season, only this year’s winning percentage is considered. asserted
percentage → consider → season
Toronto currently has the third-worst record in the league (11-31), but the second-best odds at the top pick. asserted
Toronto → have → pick
That could change when the Tempo go head-to-head with the Sun in Thursday’s season finale. uncertain
Tempo → change → finale
Toronto’s winning percentage with two games left is at .262. asserted
percentage → leave → .262
Connecticut’s combined two-year record was at 21-65, a .244 winning percentage. asserted
record → combine → 21
Despite having the worst record in the league at 8-35, Seattle was 23-21 in 2025 so currently has the fourth worst winning percentage. asserted
Seattle → have → percentage
To determine the WNBA draft order, 14 balls are fed into the lottery machine, and four are drawn to create a combination. asserted
four → determine → combination
The team holding that combination wins the No. 1 pick, and the process repeats for the second selection. asserted
process → hold → selection
The remaining non-playoff teams are then slotted by the worst combined two-year record. asserted
teams → remain → record
How ties are broken For Toronto to have the best odds at the No. 1 pick, it needs Connecticut to win its final two games of the season and the Tempo to lose both. asserted
Tempo → break → both
But if Connecticut splits its final two games of the season and Toronto loses its last two games, both teams would finish with an identical .250 winning percentage and have the same odds. asserted
teams → split → odds
What happens next? asserted
What → happen → ?
The WNBA would then combine the odds of tied teams and divide them equally. asserted
WNBA → combine → them
If there is an odd number of combinations, the team that loses the tiebreaker (for example, has the worst 2026 record), would get the extra combination and be slotted above the other team should neither be selected in the lottery. asserted
neither → be → lottery
The team slotted higher goes into the WNBA’s draft lottery later this year with a marginally better chance at the top pick. asserted
team → slot → pick
Lottery odds percentages have not yet been revealed by the WNBA. asserted
percentages → reveal → WNBA
A league spokesperson told the Star it likely won’t be announced this week. asserted
it → tell → Star
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