Twenty-week-old Grayson easily could have become one of the tens of thousands of British babies left unvaccinated against polio.
uncertain
Grayson → become → polio
His mother, Lily, agrees with the principle of immunisation.
asserted
mother → agree → immunisation
But overwhelmed by the early weeks of motherhood, and suffering from post-partum depression after a traumatic birth, she was daunted by the prospect of a long journey to a doctor's surgery.
asserted
she → suffer → surgery
You don't want to leave the house, or go to a different town."
asserted
You → want → town
Weeks ticked by, and eventually Grayson missed the polio and diphtheria jabs he was supposed to get at eight weeks old.
asserted
he → tick → polio
By that point he was officially classed by the NHS as "overdue" for vaccination; effectively, he was on his GP's naughty list.
asserted
he → class → list
Then Lily realised there was a clinic practically on her doorstep - at a location she hadn't expected.
asserted
she → realise → location
That clinic - in Keighley, west Yorkshire - runs from a vacant retail unit at the Airedale shopping centre, a 1960s-era precinct that locals say has fallen on hard times in recent years, with plenty of empty, boarded-up units.
asserted
locals → run → units
The staff who created the clinic thought: why not use one of those vacant units to administer vaccines?
asserted
who → create → vaccines
"This was an empty shop; there was nothing here, the windows were all blacked out," Flora Jennings, a local charity coordinator, tells me over the sound of a baby's laughter, on the morning I visit the clinic.
asserted
I → be → clinic
Over the last 15 years, childhood vaccination rates have fallen across Britain.
asserted
rates → fall → Britain
The share of five-year-olds in England who have received a four-in-one jab (which protects against viruses like polio and tetanus) is now 81%, down from 89% in 2014.
asserted
which → receive → 2014
About 84% have received both of their recommended MMR (measles, mumps and rubella) jabs, down from 88% a decade ago.
asserted
% → receive → %
"If you just look at the generalised population, the decline doesn't look horrific," says Prof Dan Hungerford, an epidemiologist at the University of Liverpool who gave evidence to Parliament on this topic.
asserted
who → look → topic
"But if you compare us to other nations, particularly our European neighbours, we are one of the worst-performing countries in terms of getting early-life vaccinations to children.
asserted
we → compare → children
Politicians are now asking how Britain - the country of Edward Jenner, the "father of immunology" - could have allowed its immunisation rates to drop so low, and what could fix it.
uncertain
what → ask → it
One Labour MP on the Health Committee has gone further, telling the BBC that it's time to consider a policy that's commonplace in some countries, but still something of a taboo in Britain: mandatory childhood immunisations.
asserted
that → go → Britain
Anti-vaxxers versus 'casual refuseniks'
Before the 1800s, between 40% and 50% of children in Europe died before their 15th birthday.
asserted
40 → die → birthday
Now, in Britain that number is well below 1%, according to the UN.
uncertain
number → accord → UN
Scientists broadly agree that vaccines were key to this improvement.
asserted
vaccines → agree → improvement
"Along with clean water and sanitation, immunisations have had a profound impact on keeping children alive," says Ben Kasstan-Dabush, a lecturer in global health policy at the University of Edinburgh.
asserted
Dabush → have → Edinburgh
And that's why some find it so worrying that Britain's rates have slipped.
asserted
rates → find → ?
Last year alone saw measles outbreaks in parts of Birmingham, Bristol, and north London; so far this year, two children in England have died of the disease.
asserted
children → see → disease
In January, MPs on the Health Committee described the backslide as "national disgrace".
asserted
MPs → describe → disgrace
Some blame the rise of misinformation on social media.
asserted
Some → blame → media
Last year, a group of American scientists found that reading just one anti-vax Facebook comment about the HPV jab - given to teenagers - was enough to make some parents hesitate.
asserted
parents → find → teenagers
But all of the public health experts who spoke to the BBC said that whilst anti-vax social media sentiment plays its part, they don't think it's the main reason immunisation rates have slipped.
asserted
rates → speak → part
Instead, they point to something more mundane: they think that parents of young children simply have fewer face-to-face contacts with medical professionals than they did 10 or 15 years ago.
asserted
they → point → professionals
Beccy Baird, a senior fellow at the King's Fund think tank, says that despite colourful media reporting around "anti-vaxxers", most parents who turn down vaccination are not ideologically opposed to it.
asserted
who → say → it
Convenience plays a big role, she says; vaccination rates are highest when parents regularly interact with medics, who can remind them to get their children jabbed and tell them exactly where to do it.
asserted
children → play → it
And those interactions have become rarer.
asserted
interactions → become → ?
England has seen a 45% decline over the last decade in the number of health visitors (nurses and midwives who treat young children at their home), according to BBC analysis.
uncertain
who → see → analysis
It's part of a health visitor's job to remind parents about vaccines and, in some cases, administer jabs directly.
asserted
It → remind → jabs
And over roughly the same period, the number of fully trained GPs in England struggled to keep up with rising patient demand, according to British Medical Association data; while the Nuffield Trust think tank suggests that patients have become less likely to see the same GP on repeated visits - meaning families don't build trusted relationships with doctors they recognise.
uncertain
they → train → doctors
"Those touch points have become fewer," says Kasstan-Dabush.
asserted
Dabush → become → ?
'Bucking the national trend'
At Keighley's shopping centre, inside the vaccination clinic, nurses are passing around biscuits.
asserted
nurses → buck → biscuits
"The kitchen's there, the playpen's there," says Jennings as she points to a soft-play where parents can leave children while their siblings are vaccinated.
asserted
siblings → say → children
"I wanted it to be really inviting, almost like you're walking into someone's home.
asserted
you → want → home
The idea of opening a vaccination clinic inside a town centre shopping arcade seemed odd to some of the staff when it was first suggested.
uncertain
it → open → staff
Now, they say it's key to the clinic's success.
asserted
it → say → success
…and 148 more, not listed.
The Aporia
