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which → bring → family
Serbia—Russia’s strategic partner and historic ally—now aims to develop closer ties with Ukraine.
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Serbia → aim → Ukraine
While the European Union is encouraging Serbia’s foreign policy shift, the Kremlin is so far turning a blind eye to Belgrade’s outreach to Kyiv.
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Kremlin → encourage → Kyiv
But how does the United States view Serbia’s new diplomatic direction?
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States → view → direction
But after the West imposed sanctions on the Kremlin following Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, he significantly reduced his communication with his Russian counterpart.
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he → impose → counterpart
At the same time, over the past four and a half years, Vučić has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on several occasions.
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Vučić → meet → occasions
Most recently, on July 15, he traveled to Kyiv for the first time since the war broke out to participate in the fifth Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit.
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war → travel → Summit
Even though he was the only Southeast European leader who did not sign a joint declaration calling for increased international pressure on Russia, relations between Belgrade and Kyiv have continued to grow closer.
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relations → sign → Belgrade
Last week, Zelenskyy made his first-ever official visit to Serbia—a move that could, in the long-term, have a serious impact on Belgrade’s cooperation with Moscow.
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that → make → Moscow
Although Vučić said he did not discuss military cooperation between Serbia and Ukraine with Zelenskyy, Russia undoubtedly has reasons for concern.
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Russia → say → concern
In 2024, despite its declaration of military neutrality adopted in 2007, the Balkan nation indirectly supplied Kyiv with ammunition worth €800 million.
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nation → adopt → ammunition
Such arrangements, according to former U.S. ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill, were coordinated directly from Washington.
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arrangements → accord → Washington
As he recently stressed, Serbia’s military cooperation with Ukraine is far more important for the United States than Belgrade’s decision not to formally join anti-Russian sanctions, regardless of the European Union’s repeated demands.
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cooperation → stress → demands
Moscow turned a blind eye when Serbian ammunition was sent to Ukraine, taking a year to react and accuse Belgrade of “betrayal.”
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ammunition → turn → betrayal
Although Serbia, under pressure from Russia, halted ammunition exports, there is no guarantee that it will not eventually resume arms exports to Ukraine through third countries.
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it → halt → countries
Given that Russia has demonstrated serious weaknesses in Ukraine and failed to achieve any of its strategic goals there, Belgrade has little reason to worry about potential retaliation from Moscow.
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Belgrade → give → Moscow
Hypothetically, if Serbia continues to strengthen its ties with Ukraine, Russia could respond by ending its gas arrangements with the Balkan nation.
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Russia → continue → nation
Such a move could indeed have a serious impact on the Serbian economy, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas.
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which → have → gas
However, after the United States Senate passed a bill allowing sanctions to be imposed on countries that purchase Russian energy, Serbia may soon be forced to end its gas cooperation with Moscow anyway.
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Serbia → pass → Moscow
After the Trump administration cut tariffs on Serbian goods entering the United States from 35 percent to zero, the last thing Belgrade needs is to face tariffs of up to 100 percent for continuing to buy Russian oil and gas.
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Belgrade → cut → oil
Aware of that, Belgrade seems to be laying the groundwork for closer energy cooperation with the United States.
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Belgrade → seem → States
But Vučić faces a problem: his voters have strong pro-Russian sentiments.
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voters → face → sentiments
Ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections, which could take place later this year or in 2027, he will have to find a way to gradually steer his voters away from their pro-Russian views and toward a more pro-American outlook.
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he → take → outlook
The process seems to have already begun.
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process → seem → ?
On August 1, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), an American mixed martial arts promotion with a relatively limited following in Serbia, held its first-ever show in Belgrade.
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Championship → hold → Belgrade
It seems that one of the main reasons for bringing the event to the Serbian capital was to provide a platform for Vučić’s supporters to display a large banner reading, “President Trump, Serbia welcomes you.”
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Serbia → seem → you
Trump later shared a photo of the banner on his Truth Social account.
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Trump → share → account
Like Russia’s allies in Central Asia, Serbian officials have chosen to describe Vučić’s efforts to strengthen ties with Washington as a “balanced foreign policy,” a term often used to signify building a relationship with the United States.
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officials → choose → States
However, Vučić’s motivation is different to those countries’: while their economic reliance on Russia makes them fear Moscow’s reaction to this cooperation, Vučić’s concern is his voters.
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concern → make → cooperation
This enthusiasm of Vučić’s base for Russia is why he is very unlikely to completely sever relations with Moscow, at least until the elections are over.
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elections → sever → Moscow
In the meantime, if necessary, he can even travel to Moscow to meet with Putin, which his voters are likely to interpret as a sign of the Russian leader’s support for Vučić.
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voters → travel → Vučić
Such a move would almost certainly help his party win the parliamentary elections, after which he could continue pursuing his policy of “pro-Western neutrality.”
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he → help → neutrality
The fact that Moscow did not immediately react to Zelenskyy’s visit to Belgrade and that pro-Kremlin analysts tried to downplay his meeting with Vučić suggests that Russia hopes to continue business as usual with Serbia.
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Russia → react → Serbia
By remaining silent about Vučić’s moves, the Kremlin provides the Russian population with the illusion that Serbia is allegedly defying Western pressure and refusing to impose sanctions on Moscow.
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Serbia → remain → Moscow
As long as Vučić remains on this course, he can count on Russia’s de facto support.
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he → remain → support
At the same time, he is expected to keep flirting with Trump.
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he → expect → Trump
But if he is eventually forced to make a definitive choice between Moscow and Washington, he will undoubtedly choose the latter.
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he → force → latter
Until then, he is likely to continue balancing between all the major foreign powers vying for influence in the Balkans.
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he → continue → Balkans
Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist, researcher, and analyst based in Serbia.
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Mikovic → base → Serbia
The Aporia
