Russia’s Shadow War Is Spreading Across Europe

Read the original at The Bulwark ↗
The Bulwark · collected 2026-09-20 · by Sam Stein commentary

Quick Summary

Sam Stein and former CIA officer Marc Polymeropoulos analyze recent international events, including escalated attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia and Ukraine's offensive against Russia with drone and missile strikes. They discuss various geopolitical issues such as the U.S.'s role in both conflicts, Russia’s increasing covert operations across Europe, and potential hardships for Ukraine this winter. The article is an opinion piece that encourages readers to support the publication financially for continued coverage of such topics.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-20, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

On September 20, 2026, Ukraine launched what was described as the largest drone attack ever against the Russian capital, Moscow, during the final day of Russia's parliamentary elections. More than 1,600 drones were intercepted and shot down across Russia, with 450 targeting Moscow specifically. Two people were killed in the attacks: a 44-year-old woman and an elderly man, both in separate incidents in the Moscow region. Additionally, a major oil refinery near Moscow was damaged by one of the drones.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin accused Ukraine of attempting to disrupt the tightly controlled elections, which were held from September 18-20. President Vladimir Putin's ruling party is expected to maintain its dominance in the vote, reflecting his ongoing control over Russian politics since New Year’s Eve 1999.

Ukraine has been stepping up attacks on Russian energy infrastructure recently, targeting critical revenue sources for Russia's war effort in Ukraine, which entered its fifth year. The timing of these drone strikes coincided with Putin’s framing of the election as a referendum on support for his military actions.

Written for “Ukraine Drone Attacks Moscow” on 2026-10-04, grounded in this article and the 28 other(s) covering the same event.

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
10
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
0%
0 of 10 hedged
Leaning
Leans right
expected in commentary, which argues a position · beta estimate
Correction & hedging signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
29
Politics
Narrative spread
104
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-20 · how these are computed

Story

📰 Ukraine Drone Attacks Moscow
Politics · 29 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans right and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Independent
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 2 of 20 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles describe different aspects of geopolitical tensions but do not refer to the same specific incident or time.”
The Guardian
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 4 of 24 📰 publisher trust 68
“The articles cover different topics; one discusses Latvia's president warning about Europe's lack of preparedness for drone and aerial warfare, while the other covers Russia’s shadow war spreading across Europe with a focus on recent attacks by the Houthis and Ukraine.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 10% hedged 3 of 31 📰 publisher trust 72
“The articles cover different aspects of geopolitical tensions and conflicts involving Russia, but do not describe the same specific incident.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 2% hedged 1 of 47 📰 publisher trust 72
“The articles cover different aspects of geopolitical events without focusing on the same specific incident.”
Al Jazeera
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 12% hedged 2 of 16 📰 publisher trust 60
“Both articles describe a mass Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow occurring on September 20, 2026.”
National Post
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this 🔴 4% hedged 2 of 47 📰 publisher trust 60
“The articles discuss different topics and timeframes involving various international actors and events.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 8% hedged 5 of 62 📰 publisher trust 59
“While both articles discuss drone strikes by Ukraine against Russia, they describe different aspects of the ongoing conflict and do not specifically refer to the exact same incident.”
The Independent
⚖️ Leans left further left than this 🔴 14% hedged 5 of 35 📰 publisher trust 59
“Both articles describe Ukraine launching a major drone strike on Moscow during Russia's parliamentary elections, resulting in significant damage to oil refineries.”
Fox News
⚖️ Leans right 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 25 📰 publisher trust 69
“The articles discuss different aspects of international relations and security concerns but do not describe the same specific incident or happening.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 2 📰 publisher trust 63
“The articles discuss different aspects of geopolitical tensions involving Russia but describe distinct events and analyses from different dates.”

Publisher

The Bulwark · 302 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Sam Stein
18 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
🔮 The Daily Wire is Making the Most MAGA Movie Imaginable Sam Stein and Will Sommer break down the leaked script for the Daily Wire’s upcoming fictional movie Pawn Shop, a pro-ICE thriller set amid an imagined Antifa siege of a Minneapolis pawn shop. Sam Stein and Will Sommer break down the leaked script for the Daily Wire’s upcoming fictional movie Pawn Shop, a pro-ICE thriller set amid an imagined Antifa siege of a Minneapolis pawn shop.
2026-10-02 · assertive framing · The Daily Wire is Making the Most MAGA Movie Imaginable
🔮 They also discuss Trump’s claim that annihilating Iran would create peace, his latest attempt to rewrite his four-to-six-week timeline, his complaints about “negative” questions, and his fixation on the White House renovations and other personal projects.
🔮 They also dig into Hegseth’s new Project Meridian, which will bring together Elon Musk, Palmer Luckey and Newt Gingrich to study the future of warfare, as well as his proposal to have governors compete for new troop deployments.
2026-09-30 · assertive framing · Pete Hegseth's Speech Was a Hyper-Macho Freak Show
🔮 Schmitt thought he had a smoking gun showing Smith was in Atlanta for a Hawks game on the same day as a controversy involving Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis.
🔮 A recording from The Bulwark’s live video Sam Stein and Will Sommer break down the latest drama on the online right, from a bizarre AI video posted by Trump aide Dan Scavino to the growing influence of QAnon conspiracy theories inside Trump world.
🔮 Sam Stein and Will Saletan take a look at Donald Trump’s latest architectural fever dream: a 250-foot triumphal arch near Arlington Cemetery that Trump says will double as a “top grade Military Complex,” complete with drones and snipers.
2026-09-21 · assertive framing · Trump’s New Defense Of The Arch Is INCREDIBLY Stupid
🔮 Sam Stein and Will Sommer give their takes to The Daily Wire’s bizarre new movie, Run Hide Fight: Infidels.
2026-09-17 · assertive framing · Ben Shapiro’s Grotesque Anti-Muslim Movie
🔮 Tim Miller, Sam Stein and Will Sommer take on a bizarre collection of stories from MAGA and the Republican Party, including Milo Yiannopoulos’ messy divorce, a GOP nominee’s ties to the Unite the Right rally, Victor Marx’s latest campaign controversies and a Republican candidate who fell for a fake Kai Trump account.
2026-09-17 · assertive framing · Kash Patel’s Eyebrow Has Gone Rogue | The Trio
🔮 A recording from The Bulwark’s live video Sam Stein and Will Sommer dig into the bombshell ProPublica report that a Russian oligarch close to Vladimir Putin secretly bankrolled Donald Trump Jr.’s lavish Bahamas wedding.
🔮 Watch Mike Johnson Squirm Over Trump’s $5,000 Bribe Sam Stein and Will Saletan take on Mike Johnson’s defense of Republican congressional candidate Brandon Herrera despite the gun YouTuber’s grotesque comments about women and children—and the stark contrast with how Democrats police their own candidates.
2026-09-14 · assertive framing · Watch Mike Johnson Squirm Over Trump’s $5,000 Bribe
Also by Sam Stein
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 18 articles by Sam Stein →

Topics

Bulwark+ CIA Houthis Russia Ukraine

Subjects

Ukraine GPE · 3× Bulwark+ ORG · 2× CIA ORG · 2× Marc Polymeropoulos PERSON · 2× Russia GPE · 2× Sam Stein PERSON · 2× Houthis NORP · 1× Moscow GPE · 1× Riyadh GPE · 1× Saudi Arabia GPE · 1×

Narrative

A subscription gets you: - Unlimited access to articles and newsletters including The Triad by JVL and Receipts by Catherine Rampell. - Ad-free editions of our shows (with transcripts) and member-only shows like The Secret Podcast. - Plus community chats and commenting features.
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Claims (10 extracted, 0 hedged)

Russia’s Shadow War Is Spreading Across Europe asserted
War → spread → Europe
Sam Stein and former CIA officer Marc Polymeropoulos give their takes on the flurry of international headlines over the weekend. asserted
Stein → give → weekend
Sam Stein and former CIA officer Marc Polymeropoulos give their takes on the flurry of international headlines over the weekend. asserted
Stein → give → weekend
The Houthis have escalated attacks on Saudi Arabia, including strikes on Riyadh, while Ukraine has launched a major wave of drone and missile strikes on Moscow and Russian energy infrastructure. asserted
Ukraine → escalate → Moscow
They also discuss the Trump administration’s response to the Saudi crisis, the U.S. role in Ukraine, Russia’s escalating attacks and sabotage efforts across Europe, and the prospect of a brutal winter for Ukraine. asserted
They → discuss → Ukraine
A quick note: Bulwark+ members give us the freedom to follow the news wherever it leads, including stories that don’t just chase an algorithm. asserted
that → give → algorithm
That’s why we can spend real time with experts like General Hertling on stories we think deserve your attention. asserted
we → ’ → attention
If you think this kind of coverage is worthwhile, please consider joining Bulwark+. Join Bulwark+ to unlock the rest Become a paying member of The Bulwark to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content. asserted
kind → think → post
A subscription gets you: - Unlimited access to articles and newsletters including The Triad by JVL and Receipts by Catherine Rampell. - Ad-free editions of our shows (with transcripts) and member-only shows like The Secret Podcast. - Plus community chats and commenting features. asserted
subscription → get → chats
Your support helps keep our work sustainable and available to those who cannot afford a membership. asserted
who → help → membership
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