In one of the first ads of his campaign to represent Kansas in the US Senate, the Democrat Adam Hamilton stands grilling steaks at a barbecue and attacks his opponent, Senator Roger Marshall, a Republican, for supporting “tariffs and war”.
asserted
Democrat → represent → tariffs
If history is any guide, it is Hamilton who is set to get cooked.
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who → set → ?
Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, and more than half a century has passed since one of their nominees even came close.
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one → elect → nominees
But he and his supporters believe circumstances have conspired to end this streak – and potentially deliver Democrats control of the Senate.
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circumstances → believe → Senate
“When it comes to tariffs, healthcare, immigration, when it comes to the war in Iran, these are all things that are having a negative impact on people in Kansas,” Hamilton, 62, said in an interview.
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Hamilton → come → interview
“That makes this a particularly vulnerable time for Roger Marshall.
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this → make → Marshall
Then, I think I’m a particularly strong candidate.
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I → think → ?
I wouldn’t have got in the race if I didn’t.”
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I → get → race
The founder of the largest Methodist denomination in the US, Hamilton won 35% of the vote in the 11-candidate Democratic primary earlier this month.
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Hamilton → win → primary
His campaign recently announced he had broken a quarterly fundraising record in the state, and two major election forecasters say the Senate race has grown more competitive since Hamilton won his party’s primary, though Marshall is still favored to win.
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Marshall → announce → primary
Their path to retaking Congress’s upper chamber involves winning at least three seats in states that Donald Trump carried two years ago, and they’ve named Alaska, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Iowa as among their best bets to do so.
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they → retake → bets
The US president’s slumping approval ratings and the Iran war’s impact on prices for gasoline and other staples are seen as boosting Democrats’ chances in those states, but Kansas is a bit redder.
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Kansas → slump → states
Trump carried it two years ago by a 16 percentage point margin.
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Trump → carry → margin
This week, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer told Punchbowl News that if the November elections wind up producing a “blue wave” of Democratic victories, Hamilton may well win.
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Hamilton → tell → victories
Asked what he thought of Schumer’s prediction, Hamilton said: “I don’t agree with that.
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I → ask → that
I think there will be a blue wave, but I’m telling you, here in Kansas, we have a real chance to win.
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we → think → chance
I don’t care what else happens across the country.”
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what → care → country
No Kansas Democrat has won a full term in the US Senate since attorney George McGill in 1932, the longest streak of any state.
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Democrat → win → state
In 1974, Senator Bob Dole, who would go on to become the chamber’s Republican leader and run unsuccessfully against President Bill Clinton in 1996, nearly lost his bid for a second term, but Republicans have wiped out their opponents ever since.
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Republicans → go → opponents
Democrats and their causes have had better luck at the state level.
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Democrats → have → level
The governor’s mansion has seesawed between the two parties since the late 1950s, and the race this year to replace outgoing Democratic governor Laura Kelly is viewed as a toss-up.
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race → seesaw → up
After the supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, Kansans have on two occasions rejected Republican-backed attempts to curb abortion access in the state.
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Kansans → overturn → state
“Kansas voters, the majority anyway, there’s something about the Senate where, especially those moderate Republicans, still won’t pull the trigger in terms of enough of them voting for a Democrat, where they will for governor,” said Bob Beatty, a longtime state politics watcher who chairs the political science department at Washburn University in Topeka.
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who → ’ → Topeka
But Hamilton’s experience in leading a church gives him a unique skill set that Beatty predicts will make for “a very competitive race” against Marshall.
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Beatty → lead → Marshall
“What Hamilton has going for him is the communication side.
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has → go → him
He’s been giving sermons, AKA speeches, to crowds of thousands for years,” he said.
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he → give → years
Marshall is an OB/GYN who represented western Kansas in the US House of Representatives, then won election to the Senate in 2020 and embraced Trump’s debunked claims of fraud in that year’s presidential vote.
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who → represent → vote
He has been an ally of Trump in Congress, and last year left a town hall early after attendees pressed him about the Trump administration’s funding cuts and layoffs of federal employees.
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attendees → leave → employees
A spokesperson for the senator did not respond to a request for comment.
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spokesperson → respond → comment
Hamilton said he decided to jump into the Senate race ahead of Easter, as he prepared to preach the sermon on the mount at his Church of the Resurrection outside Kansas City, which boasts around 24,000 congregants.
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which → say → congregants
He mulled running as an independent, but ultimately filed as a Democrat, saying he was concerned that he’d split the vote if he wasn’t in a party and agreed with its views on “healthcare, education [and] social safety nets”.
“Those are things that matter a lot to me, and my faith leads in that direction,” he said.
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he → mull → direction
A self-described “moderate or independent-minded Democrat”, his campaign recently released an ad where Hamilton likens Kansas’s position in the middle of the country to his own approach to the politics that would await him in Washington DC.
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that → describe → DC
Hamilton has criticized Marshall for being “a spokesperson for Washington and Donald Trump instead of representing the people of Kansas”, and accused the senator of spending most of his time in Florida.
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Hamilton → criticize → Florida
Marshall has acknowledged owning a property in that state, but recently told reporters it was destroyed by a hurricane.
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it → acknowledge → hurricane
Earlier this month, the Topeka Capital-Journal reported he’d put the Sarasota property on the market for $1.45m.
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he → report → 1.45
The senator recently called his opponent a “megachurch pastor that’s too woke for Kansas”, the Capital-Journal reported.
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Journal → call → Kansas
Main Street Fund, a Massachusetts-based Super Pac that lists its treasurer a consultant who has worked for Republican campaigns, spent more than $600,000 this month to air ads in Kansas, making a similar accusation against Hamilton that the Kansas City Star found relied on snippets from his sermons that were taken out of context.
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that → base → context
Like so much in his career, Hamilton’s chances may come down to faith.
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chances → come → faith
Jim Slattery, a Democratic former congressman from the state who supports Hamilton, described him as “a known quantity in the Methodist world in Kansas” and among Christians in the Kansas City area who may win if he gains the support of right-leaning Catholic voters opposed to the war with Iran.
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he → support → Iran
“The reason Hamilton is a compelling candidate is because he can, and he has the ability to, dramatically expand the audience for a Democrat candidate in Kansas,” Slattery said.
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Slattery → have → Kansas
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
