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True, it is not quite up there with the recent high-profile by-elections in Clacton (Farage v Binface) or Gorton (Greens v Reform), let alone Andy Burnham's victory-cum-coronation in Makerfield.
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it → see → Makerfield
This Thursday, as we enter the doldrums of the bank holiday weekend, a little-noticed poll in a corner of south London may end up reverberating not just across the capital but across Britain.
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poll → enter → Britain
For just a few thousand voters in the Trinity ward of the London Borough of Wandsworth not only have it in their grasp to restore Tory control over what was once known as 'Margaret Thatcher's favourite council', they could also shape the country's direction of travel as our political parties enter a possibly seismic round of annual party conferences.
Amid renewed speculation that Andy Burnham may be preparing for a snap election, a Tory win would show that Kemi Badenoch is continuing to make inroads into an overwhelmingly Left-leaning capital.
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Badenoch → have → capital
Back in May's local elections, when all eyes were on the national Reform surge which spooked Labour into unseating Sir Keir Starmer as PM, few people paid much attention to modest gains made by the Tories.
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people → spook → Tories
One was the recapture of the City of Westminster, a once-mighty Tory citadel which had gone over to Labour in 2022.
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which → go → 2022
Another erstwhile Tory stronghold which had also fallen into Labour hands in 2022 was Wandsworth, once famous for the lowest council tax in Britain, making it the apple of Mrs Thatcher's eye.
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it → fall → eye
In this year's elections, it was nearly – but not quite – a Tory gain when the Conservatives won 29 seats to Labour's 28.
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Conservatives → win → 28
The Tories still managed to take charge but only thanks to the casting vote of the borough's solitary independent councillor.
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Tories → manage → councillor
The recent resignation of a Labour councillor in Wandsworth's Trinity ward has left a gap which will be filled in Thursday's by-election.
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which → leave → election
If Shirin Georgiani can hold the seat for Labour, then nothing changes and the Tories continue to run the borough as a minority administration.
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Tories → hold → administration
If they win, however, they will have overall control.
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they → win → control
Campaign: Kemi Badenoch with Tory candidate Otto Jacobsson, centre, in Wandsworth last week
Kemi Badenoch visiting the previously Tory stronghold which fell into Labour hands in 2022
It will be a sign that the Opposition's 'Badenoch bounce' is continuing after a summer of tumultuous change in Downing Street.
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bounce → visit → Street
Little wonder that both the main parties are working hard to woo just 8,000 voters within half a square mile of reasonably affluent residential streets.
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parties → work → streets
What makes it more interesting is that Wandsworth sits right next to the London Borough of Lambeth.
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Wandsworth → make → Lambeth
The two councils also straddle the substantial residential area of Clapham, often on either side of the same road.
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councils → straddle → road
Yet while Wandsworth increasingly leans to the Right, Lambeth is now one of the most Left-wing councils in the country, thanks to the Green administration which took charge on June 1.
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which → lean → June
No wonder Clapham is feeling a tad schizophrenic.
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Clapham → feel → ?
Since going Green, Lambeth Council has made two headline-grabbing decisions.
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Council → go → decisions
First, it announced its refusal to co-operate with Home Office crackdowns on illegal immigration in Lambeth, preferring to link up with other Green councils to create a 'corridor of sanctuary' for migrants.
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it → announce → migrants
Second, it has said it will ignore the Supreme Court's ruling on sex and allow biological men identifying as women to continue using female-only spaces.
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men → say → spaces
The council's selective regard for legality is reflected in a growing sense of lawlessness across the area.
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regard → reflect → area
In July, a 22-year-old man was stabbed to death on Clapham High Street.
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man → stab → Street
Two months earlier, a 17-year-old was stabbed at a teenage 'meet-up' on Clapham Common organised via TikTok.
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old → stab → TikTok
He was shot dead on Willington Road, while another man received a gunshot wound.
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man → shoot → wound
Police investigations continue.
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investigations → continue → ?
The shootings occurred just yards from The Landor, a gastropub popular with the young professional crowd who have pushed the price of a one-bedroom flat in the area to £500,000.
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who → occur → 500,000
However, once-fashionable, happy-go-lucky Clapham no longer feels very happy – or lucky.
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Clapham → go → ?
Next door in Wandsworth, the council is moving in the opposite direction.
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council → move → direction
The new Tory-led administration has pledged to hire 24 extra police officers with its neighbourhood levy on developers.
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administration → lead → developers
The Tory candidate in the upcoming council by-election is Otto Jacobsson, 34, a Swedish-born head of a digital communications firm.
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candidate → bear → firm
He says he only got involved in local politics to improve the basics, pointing to a simple issue last winter when a defective light meant women were afraid to walk down an alley from the Tube and had to make a seven-minute detour.
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women → say → detour
'We kept complaining about one light but it took the Labour council weeks to fix it,' he says.
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he → keep → it
'I think across London there's a sense that people are fed up with the level of crime generally.
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people → think → crime
We just want to make people feel safer and keep council tax down.
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people → want → tax
Keeping the tax down will soon be much harder thanks to the Labour Government's 'Fairer Funding Review'.
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Keeping → keep → Review
This has ruled that six councils with low council tax rates (mainly richer, more efficient ones) will have their funding from central government slashed in order to divert more funds to poorer, less efficient authorities.
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funding → rule → authorities
Wandsworth is facing a loss of £84million from its budget, making a massive spike in its council tax bills inevitable.
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spike → face → bills
Clearly, it is a disincentive to running an efficient council, but the challenge for the Tories will be making residents understand that sudden council tax increases are down to Andy Burnham's ministers and not the town hall.
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increases → run → ministers
That's why senior Tories, including Kemi Badenoch, have been out in Wandsworth, putting an emphasis on law and order, in contrast to crime in neighbouring Lambeth.
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Tories → include → Lambeth
They point to a video of Lambeth's new head of 'Safer, Thriving Neighbourhoods', Green councillor Jonathan Bartley, proudly pointing to street graffiti saying, 'All Migrants Welcome.
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Migrants → point → graffiti
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
