As the moon circles Earth, its gravitational pull moves the oceans back and forth, creating the cycle of high and low tides.
asserted
pull → circle → tides
A similar law of physics applies to Canadian politics.
asserted
law → apply → politics
As U.S. President Donald Trump spins himself in and out of the news cycle, Liberal party poll numbers move up and down in accordance with the president’s shifting gravitational force.
asserted
numbers → spin → force
The latest breakdown of trade talks in late August, and the barrage of insults from Washington that followed, predictably delivered another “Trump bump” for Prime Minister Mark Carney who has positioned himself, and is widely perceived as, Canada’s most reliable defender.
asserted
who → follow → himself
That same cycle has been savage for Conservatives, who gathered as a caucus in B.C.’s Okanagan region this week, and are once again relegated to the sidelines while forces outside the party’s control manage its fate.
asserted
forces → gather → fate
In a sign that people inside the party may be moving through the stages of grief since losing the 2025 election, Conservative MPs seemed more willing to acknowledge the steep hill they must climb, with their party and their leader trailing Carney and the Liberals by significant spreads.
“The popularity of Mark Carney is what it is,” said Bob Zimmer, who represents the northern B.C. riding of Prince George–Peace River–Northern Rockies, outside the party’s caucus retreat in Penticton, B.C.
Conservatives popularity is now in the low 30 per cents, according to polling aggregators.
uncertain
popularity → move → aggregators
Having dipped below the psychologically important 30-point mark in a few single polls this year, even the Tory leadership has to admit that things don’t look rosy for the Conservative party these days.
“This is not the position we want to be in at this juncture,” said Conservative deputy leader Melissa Lantsman, to reporters gathered at the caucus meeting.
asserted
Lantsman → dip → meeting
Most Conservative strategists say that in the current environment, with Carney’s stature and popularity booming and Trump’s belligerence giving the prime minister a new boost every few months, it’s unlikely that the party will be able to close the gap with the Liberals anytime soon.
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party → say → Liberals
Trump is scheduled to depart the Oval Office in January 2029, which many Tories will have circled in their calendars.
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Tories → schedule → calendars
But that means the party is looking down the barrel of a gruelling couple of years.
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party → mean → years
The party’s braintrust either needs to reverse Carney’s advantage on the trade war or grind out the rest of Trump’s term when it, hopefully, goes away.
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it → need → term
“Hanging on for two years and hoping things get better, that’s not easy, right?” said Dan Robertson, a former chief strategist for the Conservative party.
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Robertson → hang → party
“You’re basically conceding that your strategy is just hope.
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strategy → concede → ?
And that’s a pretty poor basis for a strategy.”
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that → ’ → strategy
Even the most optimistic Conservative strategists don’t see a clear path to any big gains for the party soon.
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strategists → see → party
And, despite the prayers of Tories across the country, the conflict with Trump hasn’t become any less salient in Canada since the April 2025 election, when Liberals successfully sold their leader as the best man to fight it.
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Liberals → become → it
The province has become a cautionary tale.
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province → become → ?
After narrowly losing the 2024 provincial election to the incumbent NDP, the B.C. Conservatives fired their leader.
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Conservatives → lose → leader
The new one, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, is just over four months into her tenure and has already seen 12 of her MLAs resign from her caucus as a result of a fierce internal battle.
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12 → see → battle
Leader Pierre Poilievre even waded into B.C. politics earlier this year, congratulating Findlay for defeating the “Liberal lobbyists from out east” who he said ran her opponent’s campaign.
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he → wad → campaign
It was widely interpreted as a shot at Kory Teneycke, who previously organized Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s three successful provincial campaigns and had become a fierce critic of Poilievre during the federal election.
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who → interpret → election
(Teneycke helped run the campaign of a rival to Findlay, but so had many Poilievre loyalists.)
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loyalists → help → Findlay
The remarks set off a flurry of unhelpful headlines about party infighting and frustrated Conservatives, who saw them as a distraction and a needless reopening of old wounds.
asserted
who → set → wounds
Other moves by Poilievre in recent months have also landed poorly.
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moves → land → months
The public response was not kind to his October 2025 attack against the RCMP, calling the Mounties’ leadership “despicable” for what he claimed were cover ups of former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s scandals.
asserted
he → call → scandals
And there was his attack on the government in May over early reports that the economy had slipped into a “technical recession” after Statistics Canada reported a slight decline in the first quarter, following a previous decline.
uncertain
Canada → be → decline
Poilievre called for an emergency debate in Parliament over the “full-blown recession,” as headlines focused on economists urging caution about the recession definition and the data’s accuracy.
asserted
headlines → call → definition
Later revisions by Statistics Canada showed it turned out to not be a recession, by any definition.
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it → show → definition
I don’t think we should chase shiny objects in Parliament and think that we can land short-term, quick wins on corruption and ‘gotchas’ on the economy
asserted
we → think → economy
, it looked like the party not seeing the forest for the trees.
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party → look → trees
Rather than a quick “gotcha” attack, the Opposition could have made a substantial case about the economy’s lack of growth over the last decade.
uncertain
Opposition → make → decade
“The reason it’s unclear whether it was a technical recession or not is because we’ve been in this secular stagnation for years and will continue to be, which is obviously a much more compelling and bigger point to make,” she said.
uncertain
she → ’ → years
Instead, the Conservatives were forced to wear an unforced error, being technically wrong by declaring a technical recession too hastily.
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Conservatives → force → recession
“I don’t think we should chase shiny objects in Parliament and think that we can land short-term, quick wins on corruption and ‘gotchas’ on the economy,” said Roth.
asserted
Roth → think → economy
In this unforgiving political environment, she thinks, the smartest approach is to stop reading snapshot polling and focus on the medium- and long-term future.
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approach → think → future
Instead of getting into the weeds of technical recessions, she said, keep reminding Canadians that on cost-of-living, the government is failing Canadians.
asserted
government → get → Canadians
But the party would have to get comfortable with the reality that the argument might not land today, or even a year from today.
uncertain
argument → have → today
She admits that it will be difficult “from a caucus management perspective because it can feel ungratifying when you don’t score that quick win.”
asserted
you → admit → win
Poilievre has waged this kind of disciplined campaign before, when he targeted the carbon tax with a dogged effectiveness.
asserted
he → wag → effectiveness
Even as conservative-sympathetic voices urged him to move on, he would not relent until a majority of Canadians shared his view — and the Carney government eventually did, too, cancelling the consumer tax last year.
“
asserted
government → urge → tax
…and 67 more, not listed.
The Aporia
