Aporia · Why 2026 Could Be a Bigger Blue Wave Than 2018

A recent analysis suggests that President Donald Trump's economic approval rating is significantly lower now than it was during the 2018 midterm elections, when his overall approval rating was already in the low 40s. According to Gallup, Trump's economic approval rating was above 50% in 2018 but has since declined. This discrepancy may contribute to a potentially larger Democratic victory in 2026. The article is an analysis of polling data from the 2018 midterms and its implications for the current election cycle.

Written by the local model on 2026-08-24, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

Story summary

President Donald Trump's approval rating on the economy is currently lower than it was during the 2018 midterm elections, which saw Republicans maintain control of the Senate. In contrast to his overall low-40s approval rating in 2018, Trump's economic approval rating then was at or above 50%, according to Gallup. Now, his economic approval rating is far worse, potentially contributing to a Democratic takeover of the Senate in 2026.

Written for “US Midterm Election Outlook” on 2026-08-31, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

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The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.

Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.

Leaning score withheld for article 2033: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-08-27

📰 US Midterm Election Outlook

Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event. This is the one the site leads with.

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability

Source leaning vs. consistency

This article reads unscored and hedges 50% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.

Republicans Don’t Want Trump Anywhere Near the Midterms different event · 100%

The Bulwark

⚖️ Leans strongly left 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 5

“Article A is a news analysis article discussing past election data, while Article B is a discussion panel transcript focusing on Trump's role in upcoming midterms and unrelated topics”

The Dispatch · 35 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected

Signal	Value	Weight
Correction rate	0.000	0.4
Uncertainty density	0.088	0.25
Assertive mismatch rate	0.000	0.35

No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

John McCormack

2 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction

🔮 If the bottom falls out for Republicans in November and they lose control of the Senate, a big reason will be that President Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy is far worse now than it was during the midterm elections of Trump’s first term.

2026-08-24 · mixed framing · Why 2026 Could Be a Bigger Blue Wave Than 2018

Also by John McCormack

A Trump Endorsement Matters, but It Isn’t Magic

2026-08-27 · The Dispatch

Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Gallup Republicans Senate

Trump PERSON · 2× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Gallup ORG · 1× Republicans NORP · 1× Senate ORG · 1×

If the bottom falls out for Republicans in November and they lose control of the Senate, a big reason will be that President Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy is far worse now than it was during the midterm elections of Trump’s first term.

framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-08-24

🔮 If the bottom falls out for Republicans in November and they lose control of the Senate, a big reason will be that President Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy is far worse now than it was during the midterm elections of Trump’s first term.

2026-08-24 · The Dispatch

Why 2026 Could Be a Bigger Blue Wave Than 2018 · mixed framing

If the bottom falls out for Republicans in November and they lose control of the Senate, a big reason will be that President Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy is far worse now than it was during the midterm elections of Trump’s first term. asserted

it → fall → term

Back in 2018, even as Trump’s overall approval rating was in the low 40s, voters consistently gave him a net-positive approval rating on the economy: His economic approval rating sat at or above 50 percent, according to Gallup. uncertain

rating → give → Gallup

Why 2026 Could Be a Bigger Blue Wave Than 2018

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